How New Dead Sea Water Fees and Back Payments Will Impact ICL Group (ICL) Investors

• In December 2025, ICL Group disclosed that the Israeli Supreme Court had retroactively required it to pay water fees on Dead Sea concession wells from January 1, 2018, estimating an additional US$70–90 million charge through September 2025, excluding interest and linkage differentials.
• The ruling also adds an expected US$10–12 million in annual water costs from October 2025 onward, reshaping ICL’s cost base under its current concession framework.
• We’ll now examine how this Supreme Court ruling, and the resulting ongoing US$10–12 million annual water fees, affects ICL’s investment narrative.

Trump's oil boom is here - pipelines are primed to profit. Discover the 22 US stocks riding the wave.

ICL Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own ICL Group, you need to believe in its specialty minerals and chemicals platform, steady cash generation, and exposure to agriculture and industrial demand. The Supreme Court ruling adds a modest recurring cost relative to ICL’s US$7.1 billion in revenue, so it mainly matters as a one off Q4 2025 charge rather than a change to the core thesis. The bigger near term swing factor still looks to be profitability in key specialty phosphate and potash markets.

The Q3 2025 results are the most relevant backdrop for this ruling, with quarterly net income of US$115 million and year to date free cash flow previously highlighted as a strength. Against that scale of earnings, an extra US$10–12 million in annual water fees tightens margins but does not, by itself, redefine ICL’s earnings power. The more pressing question is how higher input and logistics costs interact with softer year to date profit trends if pricing conditions turn.

Yet the Supreme Court’s decision on Dead Sea water fees is a reminder that legal and regulatory shifts can quietly reshape the economics that shareholders should be aware of...

Read the full narrative on ICL Group (it's free!)

ICL Group's narrative projects $8.1 billion revenue and $714.9 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how ICL Group's forecasts yield a $6.74 fair value, a 35% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community valuations cluster between US$5.75 and US$6.74 per share, suggesting a relatively tight band of opinions on fair value. You still need to weigh those views against the risk that rising operating costs, including new water fees and ongoing logistics pressures, could keep a lid on margin improvement and overall performance.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on ICL Group - why the stock might be worth just $5.75!

Build Your Own ICL Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your ICL Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free ICL Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate ICL Group's overall financial health at a glance.

Searching For A Fresh Perspective?

These stocks are moving-our analysis flagged them today. Act fast before the price catches up:

• Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.
• AI is about to change healthcare. These 30 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.
• Rare earth metals are the new gold rush. Find out which 33 stocks are leading the charge.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com