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MOS

Mosaic NYSE:MOS Stock Report

Last Price

US$48.53

Market Cap

US$16.8b

7D

-7.0%

1Y

35.3%

Updated

24 Sep, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
MOS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation5/6
Future Growth0/6
Past Performance6/6
Financial Health6/6
Dividends3/6

MOS Stock Overview

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally.

Mosaic Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Mosaic
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$48.53
52 Week HighUS$79.28
52 Week LowUS$33.59
Beta1.59
1 Month Change-21.65%
3 Month Change4.12%
1 Year Change35.33%
3 Year Change139.54%
5 Year Change124.78%
Change since IPO181.33%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 19
Calculating The Fair Value Of The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS)

Calculating The Fair Value Of The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS)

Does the September share price for The Mosaic Company ( NYSE:MOS ) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will...

Aug 29

Mosaic: It's Difficult Not To Get Excited

Summary Mosaic is very cheaply priced at 5x free cash flow. Mosaic notes that even with Russian potash returning to the market in 2023, this will not substantially change the fact that 2023 is likely to be fundamentally strong. Mosaic describes its own shares as offering compelling value to investors. Stocks-to-use ratio is still towards the 20-year low average range. This stock offers investors a very positive risk-reward profile. Investment Thesis Mosaic (MOS) has been a turbulent stock in the past 6 months. Soaring high only to fall back rapidly. Lately, Mosaic, together with other fertilizer companies, appears to be finally finding some support. Essentially, investors are coming around and saying that at 5x free cash flow, perhaps Mosaic is cheap enough to make a speculative buy. However, I push back that there's very little "speculative" about Mosaic. Mosaic, too, believes that its shares offer investors compelling value. Indeed, Mosaic is putting money where its mouth is, as it rapidly reloads its repurchase program and doubles its allocation to $2 billion. Not only is Mosaic's balance sheet now very strong, but Mosaic now declares that it will not look to return more capital back to debtholders. Now the time to get paid will be shareholders. Altogether, it's difficult not to be excited about Mosaic. Revenue Growth Rates Jump, But So What? MOS revenue growth rates Mosaic reported earlier this month that it had posted 92% y/y revenue growth rates. Talk about a hot fertilizer company. How has the market reacted? Well, the stock is down 20% from its recent peak earlier this year, so even if lately the stock has found a bid, I believe that investors remain very much unexcited about Mosaic's prospects. Mosaic's Near-Term Prospects Previously I was inclined to argue that 2022 was a tough year for commodities, as the market had been so incredibly volatile. But it appears that as the year has rolled on, the other pockets of the market haven't been all that fun either. In fact, the argument used to be made that commodities companies are cheaply valued because they are cyclical. And that other sectors of the market, in particular tech, are expensive because they are "recession proof". Well, it turns out that, that nicely told tale was nothing less than a tall tale. Moving on, for their part, Mosaic makes the argument that its strong prospects are not in the rear-view mirror. Mosaic contends that its solid fundamentals will continue for the remainder of 2022 and into 2023. Yet, once again, given that the stock is down from its highs, it shows that big institutions want nothing to do with this side of the market. Even if a lot of focus was put on this sector at the start of the Ukraine war, that attention now has moved on. Investors got bored. Moved on. After all, lest we forget, you should only buy commodity companies when they are priced high multiples, right? Because buying commodities on low multiples means that their best days are in the rearview mirror, right? Well, typically yes. But I believe that this time it's different. Why? Well, let's look at the facts. Capital Allocation Discussed Mosaic has not squandered its capital. For the first half of 2022, Mosaic has returned 87% of its free cash flow. Now Mosaic states that it expects to return 100% of 2022 free cash flow, after debt reduction commitments are met, to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends. Think about it. Mosaic is basically saying, take our free cash flow. We are making more than we need. There are many different macro cross winds to consider that make having clear visibility on the remainder of 2022 and how it will shape up challenging. But just because there's a range of potential outcomes, that should not prevent us from having some sort of discussion about Mosaic's outlook. This time last year, Mosaic's biggest EBITDA contributor was phosphate. Today, the story is very much focused on potash. More than half its bottom line today is coming from potash. And with the shortfall from Belarusian, there's the overall expectation that potash continues to operate in a very favorable macro environment. Consequently, I believe that it's reasonable to expect that Mosaic's $3.5 billion adjusted EBITDA could potentially repeat itself in the second half. If not considerably more, given that Q1 was still marked by lower potash and phosphate prices; "pre-war" prices. Nevertheless, this implies that Mosaic could at least make $6 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2022. Of course, this immediately begs the question, is it likely that 2023 will be as strong as 2022? For their part, Mosaic argues that even though there's the expectation that a lot of the Russian potash will return to the market in 2023, despite the sanctions against Russia, that potash supply will find its way to the market. However, this will not be enough to offset the very high demand for potash. Simply put, Mosaic consistently notes that there's a very low stocks-to-use ratio. This means that farmers are attempting to be as sparing as possible with their fertilizer, even as they come close to impairing their farming yield. MOS Q2 2022 Presentation Indeed, as you can see above, there's little ambiguity, there's a very limited supply right now in the market, towards the lower end of the 20-year average. It's going to take more than 12 months to reverse this trend. Most fertilizer companies doing everything they can to increase production, but still unlikely to meaningfully reverse this balance. This leads me to focus on Mosaic's present valuation. MOS Stock Valuation - 5x Free Cash Flow As I've alluded to already, I believe that Mosaic's H2 2022 will approximate the first half of 2022. While I recognize that for Mosaic, Q4 is typically the lowest season, this year we still have the late fall season ahead, in which farmers will seek out fertilizer after the late harvest. On this note, Mosaic stated on the call, [T]he late spring and late planting is going to lead to a late harvest. Now that means that the second half demand, while it should be in line with expectation, could come in the fourth quarter rather than the third quarter due to this delayed harvest. So while we expect a very normal second half, where exactly it plays out in terms of the timing is yet to be seen. Consequently, altogether, I believe that somewhere around $6 billion of adjusted EBITDA sounds appropriate. Note, that this would be 70% higher than the previous year, to be sure. However, keep in mind that Mosaic has very high fixed costs. This means that Mosaic has a large amount of inbuilt operating leverage.

Aug 21
Mosaic's (NYSE:MOS) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's

Mosaic's (NYSE:MOS) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's

The board of The Mosaic Company ( NYSE:MOS ) has announced that it will be paying its dividend of $0.15 on the 15th of...

Shareholder Returns

MOSUS ChemicalsUS Market
7D-7.0%-5.6%-5.2%
1Y35.3%-14.9%-23.1%

Return vs Industry: MOS exceeded the US Chemicals industry which returned -14.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MOS exceeded the US Market which returned -23.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MOS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MOS volatility
MOS Average Weekly Movement6.7%
Chemicals Industry Average Movement6.3%
Market Average Movement6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: MOS is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MOS's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
200412,525Joc O’Rourkehttps://www.mosaicco.com

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name.

Mosaic Fundamentals Summary

How do Mosaic's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MOS fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$16.76b
Earnings (TTM)US$3.25b
Revenue (TTM)US$16.56b

5.1x

P/E Ratio

1.0x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MOS income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$16.56b
Cost of RevenueUS$11.22b
Gross ProfitUS$5.33b
Other ExpensesUS$2.08b
EarningsUS$3.25b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)9.43
Gross Margin32.21%
Net Profit Margin19.66%
Debt/Equity Ratio33.4%

How did MOS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.2%

Current Dividend Yield

3%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MOS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MOS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MOS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA3.6x
PEG Ratio-0.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MOS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

MOS PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for MOS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.9x
FMC FMC
17.3x10.5%US$13.2b
IPI Intrepid Potash
1.8xn/aUS$506.8m
SQM Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile
12.9x-13.1%US$26.8b
UAN CVR Partners
3.7xn/aUS$1.1b
MOS Mosaic
5.1x-32.6%US$16.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MOS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x) compared to the peer average (8.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MOS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Chemicals Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MOS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x) compared to the US Chemicals industry average (14.2x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MOS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MOS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.1x
Fair PE Ratio7.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MOS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.1x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MOS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MOS ($48.53) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($61.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MOS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is Mosaic forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 18 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


-32.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MOS's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-32.6% per year).

Earnings vs Market: MOS's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-32.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MOS's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MOS's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-13.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MOS's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-13.9% per year).


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MOS's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.2%).


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Past Performance

How has Mosaic performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

6/6

Past Performance Score 6/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


48.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MOS has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: MOS's current net profit margins (19.7%) are higher than last year (14.2%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MOS's earnings have grown significantly by 48.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: MOS's earnings growth over the past year (129.9%) exceeds its 5-year average (48.2% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: MOS earnings growth over the past year (129.9%) exceeded the Chemicals industry 21.1%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: MOS's Return on Equity (27.4%) is considered high.


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Financial Health

How is Mosaic's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MOS's short term assets ($7.3B) exceed its short term liabilities ($5.6B).

Long Term Liabilities: MOS's short term assets ($7.3B) exceed its long term liabilities ($6.4B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MOS's net debt to equity ratio (26.3%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: MOS's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 39.9% to 33.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: MOS's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (74%).

Interest Coverage: MOS's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (29.1x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Mosaic current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


1.24%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: MOS's dividend (1.24%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.65%).

High Dividend: MOS's dividend (1.24%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.57%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: MOS's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: MOS's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (3.4%), MOS's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (12.3%), MOS's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by cash flows.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Joc O’Rourke (61 yo)

7.08yrs

Tenure

US$12,297,011

Compensation

Mr. James C. O’Rourke, also known as Joc, P.Eng., serves as Chairman of Canpotex Limited. He has been the Chief Executive Officer and President at The Mosaic Company since August 5, 2015. Mr. O’Rourke serv...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Joc's total compensation ($USD12.30M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD13.05M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Joc's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MOS's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.6 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: MOS's board of directors are considered experienced (7.8 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

NYSE:MOS Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
DateValueNameEntityRoleSharesMax Price
16 May 22SellUS$1,587,755Denise JohnsonIndividual24,427US$65.00
06 May 22BuyUS$990,502Gregory EbelIndividual15,600US$63.49
09 Nov 21SellUS$1,259,064,986Vale S.A.Company34,176,574US$36.84

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 57.14% of the company
OwnershipNameSharesCurrent ValueChange %Portfolio %
11.79%
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
40,699,307$2.0b-2.11%0.05%
8.69%
BlackRock, Inc.
29,993,078$1.5b1.61%0.04%
7%
FMR LLC
24,157,450$1.2b-15.69%0.12%
4.85%
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
16,753,599$813.1m-4.02%0.05%
3.23%
Capital Research and Management Company
11,164,808$541.8m77.33%0.04%
2.15%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
7,433,641$360.8m-1.07%0.05%
1.95%
Soroban Capital Partners LP
6,727,508$326.5m36.24%3.18%
1.75%
Northern Trust Global Investments
6,045,973$293.4m7.31%0.06%
1.32%
BNY Mellon Asset Management
4,549,589$220.8m2.92%0.05%
1.27%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
4,375,947$212.4m-1.31%0.06%
1.17%
Norges Bank Investment Management
4,031,374$195.6m0%0.03%
1.04%
Neuberger Berman Investment Advisers LLC
3,603,252$174.9m10.4%0.19%
1%
Invesco Capital Management LLC
3,451,281$167.5m4.54%0.14%
0.98%
Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management
3,397,883$164.9m29.14%0.08%
0.92%
Morgan Stanley, Investment Banking and Brokerage Investments
3,182,704$154.5m-5.3%0.03%
0.9%
UBS Asset Management
3,112,865$151.1m-3.14%0.03%
0.89%
Nordea Investment Management AB
3,085,584$149.7m-6.59%0.14%
0.86%
Voloridge Investment Management, LLC
2,966,417$144.0m134.63%0.8%
0.86%
LSV Asset Management
2,958,195$143.6m-12.61%0.32%
0.84%
Platinum Investment Management Limited
2,895,029$140.5m-11.08%4.31%
0.81%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
2,802,019$136.0m-2.11%0.04%
0.81%
Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc., Banking Investments
2,801,006$135.9m-1.43%0.08%
0.73%
Wellington Management Group LLP
2,529,216$122.7m-43.19%0.02%
0.7%
Ion Asset Management
2,409,274$116.9m1.17%17.57%
0.63%
Eaton Vance Management
2,164,873$105.1m0.04%0.04%

Company Information

The Mosaic Company's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: The Mosaic Company
  • Ticker: MOS
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 2004
  • Industry: Fertilizers and Agricultural Chemicals
  • Sector: Materials
  • Implied Market Cap: US$16.756b
  • Shares outstanding: 345.27m
  • Website: https://www.mosaicco.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • The Mosaic Company
  • 101 East Kennedy Boulevard
  • Suite 2500
  • Tampa
  • Florida
  • 33602
  • United States


Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
MOSNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDJan 1988
02MDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURJan 1988
02MXTRA (XETRA Trading Platform)YesCommon StockDEEURJan 1988
MOS *BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesCommon StockMXMXNJan 1988
0K3BLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockGBUSDJan 1988
MOSC34BOVESPA (Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo)BDR EACH 2 REP 1 COMBRBRLJul 2015
MOSDBASE (Buenos Aires Stock Exchange)CEDEAR EACH 5 REP 1 COM USD0.01ARUSDJul 2022
MOSBASE (Buenos Aires Stock Exchange)CEDEAR EACH 5 REP 1 COM USD0.01ARARSJul 2022

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/09/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/09/23 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.