| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 5/6 |
| Future Growth | 0/6 |
| Past Performance | 6/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 3/6 |
MOS Stock Overview
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally.
Mosaic Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$48.53 |
| 52 Week High | US$79.28 |
| 52 Week Low | US$33.59 |
| Beta | 1.59 |
| 1 Month Change | -21.65% |
| 3 Month Change | 4.12% |
| 1 Year Change | 35.33% |
| 3 Year Change | 139.54% |
| 5 Year Change | 124.78% |
| Change since IPO | 181.33% |
Recent News & Updates
Calculating The Fair Value Of The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS)
Does the September share price for The Mosaic Company ( NYSE:MOS ) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will...
Mosaic: It's Difficult Not To Get Excited
Summary Mosaic is very cheaply priced at 5x free cash flow. Mosaic notes that even with Russian potash returning to the market in 2023, this will not substantially change the fact that 2023 is likely to be fundamentally strong. Mosaic describes its own shares as offering compelling value to investors. Stocks-to-use ratio is still towards the 20-year low average range. This stock offers investors a very positive risk-reward profile. Investment Thesis Mosaic (MOS) has been a turbulent stock in the past 6 months. Soaring high only to fall back rapidly. Lately, Mosaic, together with other fertilizer companies, appears to be finally finding some support. Essentially, investors are coming around and saying that at 5x free cash flow, perhaps Mosaic is cheap enough to make a speculative buy. However, I push back that there's very little "speculative" about Mosaic. Mosaic, too, believes that its shares offer investors compelling value. Indeed, Mosaic is putting money where its mouth is, as it rapidly reloads its repurchase program and doubles its allocation to $2 billion. Not only is Mosaic's balance sheet now very strong, but Mosaic now declares that it will not look to return more capital back to debtholders. Now the time to get paid will be shareholders. Altogether, it's difficult not to be excited about Mosaic. Revenue Growth Rates Jump, But So What? MOS revenue growth rates Mosaic reported earlier this month that it had posted 92% y/y revenue growth rates. Talk about a hot fertilizer company. How has the market reacted? Well, the stock is down 20% from its recent peak earlier this year, so even if lately the stock has found a bid, I believe that investors remain very much unexcited about Mosaic's prospects. Mosaic's Near-Term Prospects Previously I was inclined to argue that 2022 was a tough year for commodities, as the market had been so incredibly volatile. But it appears that as the year has rolled on, the other pockets of the market haven't been all that fun either. In fact, the argument used to be made that commodities companies are cheaply valued because they are cyclical. And that other sectors of the market, in particular tech, are expensive because they are "recession proof". Well, it turns out that, that nicely told tale was nothing less than a tall tale. Moving on, for their part, Mosaic makes the argument that its strong prospects are not in the rear-view mirror. Mosaic contends that its solid fundamentals will continue for the remainder of 2022 and into 2023. Yet, once again, given that the stock is down from its highs, it shows that big institutions want nothing to do with this side of the market. Even if a lot of focus was put on this sector at the start of the Ukraine war, that attention now has moved on. Investors got bored. Moved on. After all, lest we forget, you should only buy commodity companies when they are priced high multiples, right? Because buying commodities on low multiples means that their best days are in the rearview mirror, right? Well, typically yes. But I believe that this time it's different. Why? Well, let's look at the facts. Capital Allocation Discussed Mosaic has not squandered its capital. For the first half of 2022, Mosaic has returned 87% of its free cash flow. Now Mosaic states that it expects to return 100% of 2022 free cash flow, after debt reduction commitments are met, to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends. Think about it. Mosaic is basically saying, take our free cash flow. We are making more than we need. There are many different macro cross winds to consider that make having clear visibility on the remainder of 2022 and how it will shape up challenging. But just because there's a range of potential outcomes, that should not prevent us from having some sort of discussion about Mosaic's outlook. This time last year, Mosaic's biggest EBITDA contributor was phosphate. Today, the story is very much focused on potash. More than half its bottom line today is coming from potash. And with the shortfall from Belarusian, there's the overall expectation that potash continues to operate in a very favorable macro environment. Consequently, I believe that it's reasonable to expect that Mosaic's $3.5 billion adjusted EBITDA could potentially repeat itself in the second half. If not considerably more, given that Q1 was still marked by lower potash and phosphate prices; "pre-war" prices. Nevertheless, this implies that Mosaic could at least make $6 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2022. Of course, this immediately begs the question, is it likely that 2023 will be as strong as 2022? For their part, Mosaic argues that even though there's the expectation that a lot of the Russian potash will return to the market in 2023, despite the sanctions against Russia, that potash supply will find its way to the market. However, this will not be enough to offset the very high demand for potash. Simply put, Mosaic consistently notes that there's a very low stocks-to-use ratio. This means that farmers are attempting to be as sparing as possible with their fertilizer, even as they come close to impairing their farming yield. MOS Q2 2022 Presentation Indeed, as you can see above, there's little ambiguity, there's a very limited supply right now in the market, towards the lower end of the 20-year average. It's going to take more than 12 months to reverse this trend. Most fertilizer companies doing everything they can to increase production, but still unlikely to meaningfully reverse this balance. This leads me to focus on Mosaic's present valuation. MOS Stock Valuation - 5x Free Cash Flow As I've alluded to already, I believe that Mosaic's H2 2022 will approximate the first half of 2022. While I recognize that for Mosaic, Q4 is typically the lowest season, this year we still have the late fall season ahead, in which farmers will seek out fertilizer after the late harvest. On this note, Mosaic stated on the call, [T]he late spring and late planting is going to lead to a late harvest. Now that means that the second half demand, while it should be in line with expectation, could come in the fourth quarter rather than the third quarter due to this delayed harvest. So while we expect a very normal second half, where exactly it plays out in terms of the timing is yet to be seen. Consequently, altogether, I believe that somewhere around $6 billion of adjusted EBITDA sounds appropriate. Note, that this would be 70% higher than the previous year, to be sure. However, keep in mind that Mosaic has very high fixed costs. This means that Mosaic has a large amount of inbuilt operating leverage.
Mosaic's (NYSE:MOS) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's
The board of The Mosaic Company ( NYSE:MOS ) has announced that it will be paying its dividend of $0.15 on the 15th of...
Shareholder Returns
| MOS | US Chemicals | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -7.0% | -5.6% | -5.2% |
| 1Y | 35.3% | -14.9% | -23.1% |
Return vs Industry: MOS exceeded the US Chemicals industry which returned -14.9% over the past year.
Return vs Market: MOS exceeded the US Market which returned -23.1% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| MOS volatility | |
|---|---|
| MOS Average Weekly Movement | 6.7% |
| Chemicals Industry Average Movement | 6.3% |
| Market Average Movement | 6.9% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 15.9% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 2.8% |
Stable Share Price: MOS is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.
Volatility Over Time: MOS's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 12,525 | Joc O’Rourke | https://www.mosaicco.com |
The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name.
Mosaic Fundamentals Summary
| MOS fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | US$16.76b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$3.25b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$16.56b |
5.1x
P/E Ratio1.0x
P/S RatioIs MOS overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| MOS income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$16.56b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$11.22b |
| Gross Profit | US$5.33b |
| Other Expenses | US$2.08b |
| Earnings | US$3.25b |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 9.43 |
| Gross Margin | 32.21% |
| Net Profit Margin | 19.66% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 33.4% |
How did MOS perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
1.2%
Current Dividend Yield3%
Payout RatioValuation
Is MOS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
5/6Valuation Score 5/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MOS?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is MOS's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$16.76b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.2x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 3.6x |
| PEG Ratio | -0.2x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does MOS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| MOS PE Ratio vs Peers |
|---|
| Company | PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 8.9x | ||
FMC FMC | 17.3x | 10.5% | US$13.2b |
IPI Intrepid Potash | 1.8x | n/a | US$506.8m |
SQM Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile | 12.9x | -13.1% | US$26.8b |
UAN CVR Partners | 3.7x | n/a | US$1.1b |
MOS Mosaic | 5.1x | -32.6% | US$16.8b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MOS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x) compared to the peer average (8.9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does MOS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Chemicals Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MOS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x) compared to the US Chemicals industry average (14.2x)
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is MOS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 5.1x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 7.1x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MOS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.1x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of MOS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: MOS ($48.53) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($61.25)
Significantly Below Fair Value: MOS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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Future Growth
How is Mosaic forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 18 analysts?
Future Growth Score
0/6Future Growth Score 0/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE
-32.6%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: MOS's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-32.6% per year).
Earnings vs Market: MOS's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-32.6% per year).
High Growth Earnings: MOS's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: MOS's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-13.9% per year).
High Growth Revenue: MOS's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-13.9% per year).
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: MOS's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.2%).
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Past Performance
How has Mosaic performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score
6/6Past Performance Score 6/6
Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE
48.2%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: MOS has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: MOS's current net profit margins (19.7%) are higher than last year (14.2%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: MOS's earnings have grown significantly by 48.2% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: MOS's earnings growth over the past year (129.9%) exceeds its 5-year average (48.2% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: MOS earnings growth over the past year (129.9%) exceeded the Chemicals industry 21.1%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: MOS's Return on Equity (27.4%) is considered high.
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Financial Health
How is Mosaic's financial position?
Financial Health Score
6/6Financial Health Score 6/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: MOS's short term assets ($7.3B) exceed its short term liabilities ($5.6B).
Long Term Liabilities: MOS's short term assets ($7.3B) exceed its long term liabilities ($6.4B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: MOS's net debt to equity ratio (26.3%) is considered satisfactory.
Reducing Debt: MOS's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 39.9% to 33.4% over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: MOS's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (74%).
Interest Coverage: MOS's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (29.1x coverage).
Balance Sheet
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Dividend
What is Mosaic current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score
3/6Dividend Score 3/6
Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage
1.24%
Current Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: MOS's dividend (1.24%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.65%).
High Dividend: MOS's dividend (1.24%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.57%).
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: MOS's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.
Growing Dividend: MOS's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (3.4%), MOS's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (12.3%), MOS's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by cash flows.
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Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
5.6yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
Joc O’Rourke (61 yo)
7.08yrs
Tenure
US$12,297,011
Compensation
Mr. James C. O’Rourke, also known as Joc, P.Eng., serves as Chairman of Canpotex Limited. He has been the Chief Executive Officer and President at The Mosaic Company since August 5, 2015. Mr. O’Rourke serv...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Joc's total compensation ($USD12.30M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD13.05M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Joc's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Leadership Team
Experienced Management: MOS's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.6 years average tenure).
Board Members
Experienced Board: MOS's board of directors are considered experienced (7.8 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
| Date | Value | Name | Entity | Role | Shares | Max Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 22 | SellUS$1,587,755 | Denise Johnson | Individual | 24,427 | US$65.00 | |
| 06 May 22 | BuyUS$990,502 | Gregory Ebel | Individual | 15,600 | US$63.49 | |
| 09 Nov 21 | SellUS$1,259,064,986 | Vale S.A. | Company | 34,176,574 | US$36.84 |
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Top Shareholders
| Ownership | Name | Shares | Current Value | Change % | Portfolio % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40,699,307 | $2.0b | -2.11% | 0.05% | |||
| 29,993,078 | $1.5b | 1.61% | 0.04% | |||
| 24,157,450 | $1.2b | -15.69% | 0.12% | |||
| 16,753,599 | $813.1m | -4.02% | 0.05% | |||
| 11,164,808 | $541.8m | 77.33% | 0.04% | |||
| 7,433,641 | $360.8m | -1.07% | 0.05% | |||
| 6,727,508 | $326.5m | 36.24% | 3.18% | |||
| 6,045,973 | $293.4m | 7.31% | 0.06% | |||
| 4,549,589 | $220.8m | 2.92% | 0.05% | |||
| 4,375,947 | $212.4m | -1.31% | 0.06% | |||
| 4,031,374 | $195.6m | 0% | 0.03% | |||
| 3,603,252 | $174.9m | 10.4% | 0.19% | |||
| 3,451,281 | $167.5m | 4.54% | 0.14% | |||
| 3,397,883 | $164.9m | 29.14% | 0.08% | |||
| 3,182,704 | $154.5m | -5.3% | 0.03% | |||
| 3,112,865 | $151.1m | -3.14% | 0.03% | |||
| 3,085,584 | $149.7m | -6.59% | 0.14% | |||
| 2,966,417 | $144.0m | 134.63% | 0.8% | |||
| 2,958,195 | $143.6m | -12.61% | 0.32% | |||
| 2,895,029 | $140.5m | -11.08% | 4.31% | |||
| 2,802,019 | $136.0m | -2.11% | 0.04% | |||
| 2,801,006 | $135.9m | -1.43% | 0.08% | |||
| 2,529,216 | $122.7m | -43.19% | 0.02% | |||
| 2,409,274 | $116.9m | 1.17% | 17.57% | |||
| 2,164,873 | $105.1m | 0.04% | 0.04% |
Company Information
The Mosaic Company's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: The Mosaic Company
- Ticker: MOS
- Exchange: NYSE
- Founded: 2004
- Industry: Fertilizers and Agricultural Chemicals
- Sector: Materials
- Implied Market Cap: US$16.756b
- Shares outstanding: 345.27m
- Website: https://www.mosaicco.com
Number of Employees
Location
- The Mosaic Company
- 101 East Kennedy Boulevard
- Suite 2500
- Tampa
- Florida
- 33602
- United States
Listings
| Ticker | Exchange | Primary Security | Security Type | Country | Currency | Listed on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOS | NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) | Yes | Common Stock | US | USD | Jan 1988 |
| 02M | DB (Deutsche Boerse AG) | Yes | Common Stock | DE | EUR | Jan 1988 |
| 02M | XTRA (XETRA Trading Platform) | Yes | Common Stock | DE | EUR | Jan 1988 |
| MOS * | BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores) | Yes | Common Stock | MX | MXN | Jan 1988 |
| 0K3B | LSE (London Stock Exchange) | Yes | Common Stock | GB | USD | Jan 1988 |
| MOSC34 | BOVESPA (Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo) | BDR EACH 2 REP 1 COM | BR | BRL | Jul 2015 | |
| MOSD | BASE (Buenos Aires Stock Exchange) | CEDEAR EACH 5 REP 1 COM USD0.01 | AR | USD | Jul 2022 | |
| MOS | BASE (Buenos Aires Stock Exchange) | CEDEAR EACH 5 REP 1 COM USD0.01 | AR | ARS | Jul 2022 |
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/09/24 00:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/09/23 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2022/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2021/12/31 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.