The Mosaic Company

NYSE:MOS Stock Report

Market Cap: US$8.1b

Mosaic Valuation

Is MOS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MOS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MOS ($25.44) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($43.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MOS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MOS?

Key metric: As MOS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MOS. This is calculated by dividing MOS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MOS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio21.8x
EarningsUS$371.20m
Market CapUS$8.07b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MOS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MOS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.1x
FMC FMC
4.7x-18.3%US$6.9b
ICL ICL Group
14.2x17.9%US$5.7b
CF CF Industries Holdings
13.4x-6.5%US$15.2b
CTVA Corteva
60.3x26.2%US$40.0b
MOS Mosaic
21.8x26.9%US$8.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MOS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.8x) compared to the peer average (23.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MOS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Chemicals Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FFHL Fuwei Films (Holdings)
2.8xn/aUS$27.11m
BSLK Bolt Projects Holdings
0.06xn/aUS$9.40m
BON Bon Natural Life
2.4xn/aUS$5.36m
GSPI Green Star Products
1.7xn/aUS$1.49m
MOS 21.8xIndustry Avg. 23.2xNo. of Companies7PE01224364860+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MOS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.8x) compared to the US Chemicals industry average (23.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MOS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MOS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21.8x
Fair PE Ratio25.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MOS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MOS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$25.44
US$32.74
+28.7%
17.4%US$44.00US$25.00n/a19
Nov ’25US$26.89
US$33.14
+23.3%
17.4%US$45.00US$26.00n/a19
Oct ’25US$27.05
US$34.19
+26.4%
18.2%US$50.00US$26.00n/a20
Sep ’25US$28.57
US$34.29
+20.0%
17.8%US$50.00US$26.00n/a20
Aug ’25US$28.86
US$35.14
+21.7%
16.4%US$50.00US$27.00n/a20
Jul ’25US$27.96
US$35.79
+28.0%
14.8%US$50.00US$27.00n/a20
Jun ’25US$30.93
US$35.76
+15.6%
14.5%US$50.00US$27.00n/a20
May ’25US$29.93
US$37.39
+24.9%
11.9%US$50.00US$31.00n/a20
Apr ’25US$32.43
US$37.76
+16.4%
13.6%US$50.00US$31.00n/a22
Mar ’25US$31.63
US$38.41
+21.4%
13.9%US$50.00US$31.00n/a22
Feb ’25US$30.87
US$39.11
+26.7%
13.4%US$50.00US$31.00n/a21
Jan ’25US$35.73
US$40.11
+12.3%
14.6%US$54.00US$31.00n/a21
Dec ’24US$36.90
US$40.53
+9.8%
13.9%US$54.00US$31.00n/a21
Nov ’24US$32.29
US$42.34
+31.1%
12.7%US$54.00US$32.00US$26.8921
Oct ’24US$35.60
US$43.24
+21.5%
12.6%US$55.00US$32.00US$27.0521
Sep ’24US$39.85
US$42.91
+7.7%
12.9%US$55.00US$32.00US$28.5722
Aug ’24US$40.23
US$42.12
+4.7%
13.6%US$55.00US$32.00US$28.8622
Jul ’24US$35.00
US$43.80
+25.2%
14.4%US$62.00US$35.00US$27.9622
Jun ’24US$31.71
US$44.62
+40.7%
15.2%US$62.00US$35.00US$30.9322
May ’24US$43.59
US$52.00
+19.3%
17.3%US$70.00US$38.00US$29.9322
Apr ’24US$45.88
US$54.69
+19.2%
17.0%US$78.00US$40.00US$32.4322
Mar ’24US$54.26
US$54.63
+0.7%
16.6%US$78.00US$40.00US$31.6323
Feb ’24US$49.86
US$56.44
+13.2%
18.5%US$80.00US$39.00US$30.8723
Jan ’24US$43.87
US$61.33
+39.8%
15.5%US$92.00US$44.00US$35.7322
Dec ’23US$49.10
US$61.85
+26.0%
15.3%US$92.00US$44.00US$36.9021
Nov ’23US$54.45
US$64.28
+18.1%
16.1%US$93.00US$44.00US$32.2921

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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