The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

NYSE:SMG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.2b

Scotts Miracle-Gro Valuation

Is SMG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SMG ($75.19) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($74.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SMG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SMG?

Key metric: As SMG is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for SMG. This is calculated by dividing SMG's market cap by their current revenue.
What is SMG's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.2x
SalesUS$3.55b
Market CapUS$4.24b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SMG's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for SMG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.5x
ICL ICL Group
0.8x4.7%US$5.7b
FMC FMC
1.7x5.7%US$6.9b
MOS Mosaic
0.7x1.7%US$8.1b
CF CF Industries Holdings
2.6x2.2%US$15.2b
SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro
1.2x2.3%US$4.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SMG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the peer average (1.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does SMG's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Chemicals Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TSE Trinseo
0.03x5.0%US$117.53m
ALTO Alto Ingredients
0.1x3.1%US$106.54m
BON Bon Natural Life
0.2xn/aUS$5.36m
ABLT American Biltrite
0.02xn/aUS$2.91m
SMG 1.2xIndustry Avg. 1.4xNo. of Companies18PS01.22.43.64.86+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SMG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the US Chemicals industry average (1.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SMG's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SMG PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.2x
Fair PS Ratio1.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SMG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SMG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$75.19
US$81.71
+8.7%
10.6%US$100.00US$70.00n/a7
Nov ’25US$89.66
US$88.86
-0.9%
10.0%US$105.00US$75.00n/a7
Oct ’25US$86.71
US$82.43
-4.9%
13.7%US$105.00US$65.00n/a7
Sep ’25US$70.98
US$82.43
+16.1%
13.7%US$105.00US$65.00n/a7
Aug ’25US$75.22
US$82.43
+9.6%
13.7%US$105.00US$65.00n/a7
Jul ’25US$63.49
US$77.43
+22.0%
12.7%US$95.00US$65.00n/a7
Jun ’25US$69.69
US$77.43
+11.1%
12.7%US$95.00US$65.00n/a7
May ’25US$68.24
US$79.00
+15.8%
13.9%US$95.00US$65.00n/a6
Apr ’25US$71.77
US$71.14
-0.9%
14.2%US$95.00US$63.00n/a7
Mar ’25US$67.18
US$69.75
+3.8%
15.4%US$95.00US$55.00n/a8
Feb ’25US$57.94
US$70.00
+20.8%
18.8%US$100.00US$49.00n/a8
Jan ’25US$63.75
US$67.38
+5.7%
21.2%US$100.00US$49.00n/a8
Dec ’24US$58.15
US$67.38
+15.9%
21.2%US$100.00US$49.00n/a8
Nov ’24US$52.68
US$66.25
+25.8%
22.9%US$100.00US$49.00US$89.668
Oct ’24US$51.68
US$68.56
+32.7%
17.7%US$100.00US$55.00US$86.719
Sep ’24US$55.03
US$70.22
+27.6%
16.9%US$100.00US$55.00US$70.989
Aug ’24US$71.44
US$80.22
+12.3%
15.4%US$110.00US$68.00US$75.229
Jul ’24US$62.69
US$80.78
+28.9%
15.7%US$110.00US$65.00US$63.499
Jun ’24US$63.62
US$81.00
+27.3%
15.4%US$110.00US$65.00US$69.699
May ’24US$70.48
US$85.78
+21.7%
16.0%US$115.00US$70.00US$68.249
Apr ’24US$69.74
US$87.67
+25.7%
18.1%US$115.00US$65.00US$71.779
Mar ’24US$82.57
US$87.67
+6.2%
18.1%US$115.00US$65.00US$67.189
Feb ’24US$80.52
US$72.33
-10.2%
30.1%US$115.00US$45.00US$57.949
Jan ’24US$48.59
US$62.44
+28.5%
34.4%US$115.00US$45.00US$63.759
Dec ’23US$55.23
US$63.56
+15.1%
35.2%US$115.00US$45.00US$58.159
Nov ’23US$46.36
US$81.00
+74.7%
26.1%US$120.00US$48.00US$52.689

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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