We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Valuation

Is SMG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SMG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

SMG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA11.4x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SMG's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for SMG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.9x
UAN CVR Partners
1.5xn/aUS$1.2b
AVD American Vanguard
1.1x7.1%US$662.6m
FMC FMC
2.9x3.6%US$16.0b
BIOX Bioceres Crop Solutions
2x21.7%US$773.5m
SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro
0.7x4.2%US$2.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SMG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the peer average (1.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SMG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Chemicals Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.5%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SMG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the US Chemicals industry average (1.2x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SMG's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SMG PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.7x
Fair PS Ratio1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SMG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SMG ($50.49) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($47.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SMG is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SMG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$50.49
US$63.56
+25.9%
35.2%US$115.00US$45.00n/a9
Dec ’23US$55.23
US$63.56
+15.1%
35.2%US$115.00US$45.00n/a9
Nov ’23US$46.36
US$81.00
+74.7%
26.1%US$120.00US$48.00n/a9
Oct ’23US$42.75
US$88.11
+106.1%
16.2%US$120.00US$75.00n/a9
Sep ’23US$62.57
US$92.00
+47.0%
16.2%US$120.00US$75.00n/a9
Aug ’23US$88.12
US$102.78
+16.6%
15.4%US$130.00US$85.00n/a9
Jul ’23US$80.18
US$106.44
+32.8%
15.7%US$130.00US$85.00n/a9
Jun ’23US$92.12
US$139.80
+51.8%
14.9%US$185.00US$110.00n/a10
May ’23US$103.93
US$159.90
+53.9%
18.0%US$232.00US$110.00n/a10
Apr ’23US$127.36
US$167.80
+31.8%
14.4%US$232.00US$150.00n/a10
Mar ’23US$139.06
US$186.50
+34.1%
13.5%US$232.00US$150.00n/a10
Feb ’23US$146.69
US$192.30
+31.1%
11.2%US$232.00US$160.00n/a10
Jan ’23US$161.00
US$196.50
+22.0%
11.3%US$232.00US$160.00n/a10
Dec ’22US$138.22
US$198.33
+43.5%
11.5%US$232.00US$160.00US$55.239
Nov ’22US$147.77
US$203.25
+37.5%
14.3%US$257.00US$155.00US$46.368
Oct ’22US$147.14
US$205.88
+39.9%
14.2%US$257.00US$155.00US$42.758
Sep ’22US$156.77
US$219.00
+39.7%
16.5%US$260.00US$155.00US$62.578
Aug ’22US$176.96
US$232.88
+31.6%
17.0%US$300.00US$160.00US$88.128
Jul ’22US$191.02
US$241.86
+26.6%
19.8%US$300.00US$160.00US$80.187
Jun ’22US$211.81
US$260.83
+23.1%
19.6%US$305.00US$160.00US$92.126
May ’22US$231.16
US$250.00
+8.2%
20.2%US$300.00US$145.00US$103.936
Apr ’22US$250.00
US$246.17
-1.5%
19.4%US$290.00US$145.00US$127.366
Mar ’22US$224.78
US$246.17
+9.5%
19.4%US$290.00US$145.00US$139.066
Feb ’22US$227.34
US$213.67
-6.0%
24.2%US$274.00US$135.00US$146.696
Jan ’22US$199.14
US$184.00
-7.6%
16.1%US$224.00US$135.00US$161.006
Dec ’21US$176.20
US$174.00
-1.2%
13.8%US$200.00US$135.00US$138.225

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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