The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

NYSE:SMG Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.9b

Scotts Miracle-Gro Valuation

Is SMG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SMG ($68.52) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($72.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SMG is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SMG?

Key metric: As SMG is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for SMG. This is calculated by dividing SMG's market cap by their current revenue.
What is SMG's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.1x
SalesUS$3.55b
Market CapUS$3.94b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does SMG's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for SMG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.4x
FMC FMC
1.5x5.9%US$6.3b
ICL ICL Group
0.9x4.9%US$6.3b
MOS Mosaic
0.7x1.8%US$7.6b
CF CF Industries Holdings
2.5x2.0%US$14.8b
SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro
1.1x2.2%US$3.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: SMG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the peer average (1.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does SMG's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Chemicals Industry?

14 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TSE Trinseo
0.05x4.1%US$168.87m
AVD American Vanguard
0.2x4.8%US$127.82m
ALTO Alto Ingredients
0.1x3.1%US$113.44m
ENFY Enlightify
0.2xn/aUS$16.12m
SMG 1.1xIndustry Avg. 1.3xNo. of Companies14PS012345+
14 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: SMG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the US Chemicals industry average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SMG's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SMG PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.1x
Fair PS Ratio1.2x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: SMG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SMG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$68.52
US$80.50
+17.5%
10.8%US$100.00US$70.00n/a8
Dec ’25US$77.09
US$81.71
+6.0%
10.6%US$100.00US$70.00n/a7
Nov ’25US$89.66
US$88.86
-0.9%
10.0%US$105.00US$75.00n/a7
Oct ’25US$86.71
US$82.43
-4.9%
13.7%US$105.00US$65.00n/a7
Sep ’25US$70.98
US$82.43
+16.1%
13.7%US$105.00US$65.00n/a7
Aug ’25US$75.22
US$82.43
+9.6%
13.7%US$105.00US$65.00n/a7
Jul ’25US$63.49
US$77.43
+22.0%
12.7%US$95.00US$65.00n/a7
Jun ’25US$69.69
US$77.43
+11.1%
12.7%US$95.00US$65.00n/a7
May ’25US$68.24
US$79.00
+15.8%
13.9%US$95.00US$65.00n/a6
Apr ’25US$71.77
US$71.14
-0.9%
14.2%US$95.00US$63.00n/a7
Mar ’25US$67.18
US$69.75
+3.8%
15.4%US$95.00US$55.00n/a8
Feb ’25US$57.94
US$70.00
+20.8%
18.8%US$100.00US$49.00n/a8
Jan ’25US$63.75
US$67.38
+5.7%
21.2%US$100.00US$49.00n/a8
Dec ’24US$58.15
US$67.38
+15.9%
21.2%US$100.00US$49.00US$77.098
Nov ’24US$52.68
US$66.25
+25.8%
22.9%US$100.00US$49.00US$89.668
Oct ’24US$51.68
US$68.56
+32.7%
17.7%US$100.00US$55.00US$86.719
Sep ’24US$55.03
US$70.22
+27.6%
16.9%US$100.00US$55.00US$70.989
Aug ’24US$71.44
US$80.22
+12.3%
15.4%US$110.00US$68.00US$75.229
Jul ’24US$62.69
US$80.78
+28.9%
15.7%US$110.00US$65.00US$63.499
Jun ’24US$63.62
US$81.00
+27.3%
15.4%US$110.00US$65.00US$69.699
May ’24US$70.48
US$85.78
+21.7%
16.0%US$115.00US$70.00US$68.249
Apr ’24US$69.74
US$87.67
+25.7%
18.1%US$115.00US$65.00US$71.779
Mar ’24US$82.57
US$87.67
+6.2%
18.1%US$115.00US$65.00US$67.189
Feb ’24US$80.52
US$72.33
-10.2%
30.1%US$115.00US$45.00US$57.949
Jan ’24US$48.59
US$62.44
+28.5%
34.4%US$115.00US$45.00US$63.759
Dec ’23US$55.23
US$63.56
+15.1%
35.2%US$115.00US$45.00US$58.159

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 03:03
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is covered by 23 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Alexander MarocciaBerenberg
Sam YakeBGB Securities, Inc.
Constance ManeatyBMO Capital Markets Equity Research