CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

NYSE:CF Stock Report

Market Cap: US$14.8b

CF Industries Holdings Valuation

Is CF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CF ($84.98) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($148.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CF?

Key metric: As CF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CF. This is calculated by dividing CF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.7x
EarningsUS$1.16b
Market CapUS$14.79b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.8x
MOS Mosaic
20.6x27.5%US$7.6b
FMC FMC
4.1x-20.2%US$6.3b
ICL ICL Group
15.6x17.8%US$6.3b
CTVA Corteva
59x26.8%US$39.5b
CF CF Industries Holdings
12.7x-5.7%US$14.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the peer average (24.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Chemicals Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FFHL Fuwei Films (Holdings)
2.8xn/aUS$27.11m
BSLK Bolt Projects Holdings
0.07xn/aUS$10.35m
BON Bon Natural Life
2.4xn/aUS$5.84m
GSPI Green Star Products
1.7xn/aUS$1.64m
CF 12.7xIndustry Avg. 20.4xNo. of Companies8PE01224364860+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the US Chemicals industry average (20.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.7x
Fair PE Ratio14.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$84.98
US$88.99
+4.7%
11.3%US$114.00US$74.00n/a21
Dec ’25US$89.66
US$87.29
-2.6%
9.5%US$105.00US$74.00n/a20
Nov ’25US$84.06
US$86.94
+3.4%
10.2%US$105.00US$69.00n/a20
Oct ’25US$87.21
US$84.59
-3.0%
8.9%US$100.00US$69.00n/a20
Sep ’25US$83.09
US$83.89
+1.0%
9.5%US$100.00US$67.00n/a20
Aug ’25US$75.80
US$80.49
+6.2%
8.2%US$95.00US$67.00n/a20
Jul ’25US$73.38
US$82.44
+12.3%
9.0%US$96.00US$67.00n/a20
Jun ’25US$79.73
US$82.32
+3.2%
8.6%US$96.00US$69.00n/a21
May ’25US$77.97
US$85.26
+9.4%
7.9%US$100.00US$69.00n/a22
Apr ’25US$83.33
US$86.06
+3.3%
9.2%US$100.00US$68.00n/a21
Mar ’25US$82.50
US$86.06
+4.3%
9.2%US$100.00US$68.00n/a21
Feb ’25US$76.84
US$86.50
+12.6%
10.0%US$100.00US$68.00n/a20
Jan ’25US$79.50
US$88.50
+11.3%
11.4%US$105.00US$68.00n/a20
Dec ’24US$76.31
US$88.75
+16.3%
11.0%US$105.00US$68.00US$89.6620
Nov ’24US$79.26
US$89.30
+12.7%
10.8%US$105.00US$68.00US$84.0620
Oct ’24US$85.74
US$87.95
+2.6%
10.7%US$105.00US$67.00US$87.2120
Sep ’24US$79.21
US$86.95
+9.8%
11.1%US$105.00US$67.00US$83.0921
Aug ’24US$81.28
US$84.19
+3.6%
13.9%US$105.00US$65.00US$75.8021
Jul ’24US$69.42
US$86.15
+24.1%
15.3%US$110.00US$65.00US$73.3821
Jun ’24US$60.24
US$86.96
+44.4%
15.2%US$110.00US$65.00US$79.7321
May ’24US$71.95
US$93.43
+29.9%
13.8%US$115.00US$70.00US$77.9721
Apr ’24US$72.49
US$101.29
+39.7%
12.9%US$126.00US$75.00US$83.3321
Mar ’24US$85.15
US$101.57
+19.3%
12.8%US$126.00US$75.00US$82.5021
Feb ’24US$85.28
US$109.14
+28.0%
14.2%US$132.00US$75.00US$76.8421
Jan ’24US$85.20
US$115.30
+35.3%
12.9%US$135.00US$80.00US$79.5020
Dec ’23US$103.64
US$115.30
+11.3%
12.9%US$135.00US$80.00US$76.3120

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 03:05
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is covered by 52 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Harriet LiAccountability Research Corporation
null nullArgus Research Company
Colin IsaacAtlantic Equities LLP