CF Industries Holdings Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 6/6
CF Industries Holdings has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 1.8%, while the Chemicals industry saw earnings declining at 3.8% annually. Revenues have been declining at an average rate of 1% per year. CF Industries Holdings's return on equity is 25.7%, and it has net margins of 23.7%.
Key information
1.84%
Earnings growth rate
7.07%
EPS growth rate
| Chemicals Industry Growth | 12.93% |
| Revenue growth rate | -1.04% |
| Return on equity | 25.71% |
| Net Margin | 23.73% |
| Next Earnings Update | 05 Aug 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • May 07
CF Industries: The Iran Premium Is A Double-Edged Sword (Downgrade)
Summary CF Industries is rated Buy, reflecting ongoing undervaluation despite recent gains driven by Middle East conflict disruptions. CF's Q1 outperformance stemmed from higher fertilizer prices due to curtailed Middle East supply, but this boost is likely temporary. Strong balance sheet, $2.04 billion in cash and equivalents, and substantial buyback authorization position CF for resilience and capital returns. Intrinsic value is estimated above current levels, but macro risks and commodity volatility warrant caution. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 26
CF Industries Delivers Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Amid Tight Nitrogen Markets and Robust Cash Generation
Executive Summary Analyst: Qudus Adebara (Founder of Wane Investment House) CF Industries Holdings, Inc. delivered a solid operating and financial performance in the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, reflecting favorable nitrogen market fundamentals, disciplined cost management, and high asset utilization.
Narrative Update • Apr 22
CF: Tighter Nitrogen Markets And DOJ Probe Will Shape Future Premium
CF Industries Holdings' analyst fair value estimate has been adjusted from $112.58 to $118.05, reflecting a series of higher Street price targets as analysts factor in tighter nitrogen markets, geopolitical supply risks, and refined assumptions for revenue trends, margins, and future P/E multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on CF Industries points to a mix of optimism on earnings power in tighter nitrogen markets and caution around geopolitical risk, fertilizer demand trends, and valuation after a strong sector move.Narrative Update • Apr 07
CF: DOJ Price Fixing Probe Will Eventually Pressure Elevated Nitrogen Premium
CF Industries' updated analyst price target has moved about $7 higher, as analysts weigh higher implied fair value, slightly lower discount rates, firmer margin expectations, and a lower assumed future P/E against mixed views on nitrogen pricing and geopolitical risk. Analyst Commentary Recent research on CF Industries shows a cluster of higher price targets, but with a split view on how durable current conditions may be and how much upside is already reflected in the share price.
New Narrative • Mar 27
Low Carbon Ammonia Ambitions And Gas Spreads Will Pressure Future Earnings And Margins
Catalysts About CF Industries Holdings CF Industries Holdings produces nitrogen based fertilizers and low carbon ammonia for agricultural and industrial customers. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 23
CF: DOJ Fertilizer Probe Will Constrain Returns Despite Tight Nitrogen Markets
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for CF Industries to about $106 from roughly $98. This reflects higher price targets across the Street as they factor in firmer nitrogen pricing, improved profit margins, and a slightly lower assumed P/E multiple, despite some mixed ratings and geopolitical risks.
New Narrative • Mar 13
Low Carbon Ammonia And CCS Projects Will Support A Stronger Long Term Outlook
Catalysts About CF Industries Holdings CF Industries Holdings produces nitrogen based fertilizers and low carbon ammonia for agricultural and industrial customers worldwide. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 08
CF: Tighter Nitrogen Markets And DOJ Probe Will Pressure Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their average price target for CF Industries higher to $97.74 from $95.68, reflecting updated views on tighter near term nitrogen markets, geopolitical risks that could support pricing into 2026, and emerging interest in the company's low carbon ammonia exposure. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a mix of optimism and caution on CF Industries, with several firms lifting price targets while keeping a close eye on nitrogen pricing, geopolitical risk, and the company’s execution on low carbon projects.Narrative Update • Feb 22
CF: Tight Nitrogen Markets And Low Carbon Projects Will Guide Balanced Outlook
Analysts have lifted their blended fair value estimate for CF Industries to about $95.68 from $91.21, reflecting higher price targets around $94 to $103 and updated views on tight nitrogen markets, strong free cash flow, and a modestly higher assumed future P/E multiple despite mixed opinions on medium term catalysts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around CF Industries points to a mixed but generally balanced view, with several firms adjusting price targets while maintaining a cautious stance on the shares.Narrative Update • Feb 07
CF: Tight Nitrogen Outlook And Clean Energy Efforts Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for CF Industries Holdings by about $0.40 to $91.21, reflecting slightly softer revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, partly offset by higher expected future P/E multiples and updated sector views from recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on CF Industries Holdings reflects a mixed but useful set of signals for you to weigh, with some analysts focusing on upside tied to nitrogen fundamentals and cash generation, and others leaning cautious around sector headwinds and valuation reset.Analysis Article • Jan 31
CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.50
The board of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:CF ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.50 per share on...Narrative Update • Jan 24
CF: Tight Ammonia Markets And Clean Energy Projects Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts made a small upward adjustment to their fair value estimate for CF Industries to about $91.61 per share, reflecting slightly firmer profit margin assumptions and a marginally lower future P/E expectation, even as recent price target moves across the Street remain mixed. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on CF Industries presents a mix of constructive and cautious views, with price targets spread roughly between the high $70s and $100.Narrative Update • Jan 10
CF: Tight Ammonia Markets And Clean Energy Projects Will Support Returns
Analysts have trimmed their blended fair value estimate for CF Industries Holdings by about US$0.30 per share to roughly US$91.44. This reflects a mix of lower price targets tied to concerns about potential nitrogen oversupply and uneven industrial demand, partly offset by more constructive views on tight ammonia markets, shareholder returns, and the company’s clean energy buildout.Narrative Update • Dec 25
CF: Tight Nitrogen And Ammonia Markets Will Support Future Shareholder Returns
Analysts have nudged their blended price target for CF Industries Holdings slightly lower, trimming it by about $0.45 to reflect a modestly softer valuation backdrop. At the same time, they highlight supportive nitrogen fundamentals, tight ammonia markets, and continued free cash flow and clean energy investment as key offsets.Narrative Update • Dec 11
CF: Tight Nitrogen And Ammonia Markets Will Drive Long-Term Upside
Analysts have modestly trimmed their price target on CF Industries Holdings to reflect a slightly lower fair value estimate of about $92, incorporating a mix of reduced targets from firms citing a cautious macro and commodity backdrop, and higher targets from those highlighting tight ammonia markets, strong free cash flow, and long term clean energy growth initiatives. Analyst Commentary Analyst views on CF Industries remain mixed, with a generally constructive stance on the company’s strategic positioning but tempered by concerns around the broader macro and commodity backdrop.Narrative Update • Nov 27
CF: Tight Nitrogen Markets And Clean Energy Advances Will Drive Long-Term Upside
The analyst price target for CF Industries Holdings has been adjusted slightly lower. This change reflects a modest decrease as analysts acknowledge both headwinds in profit margin expectations and ongoing support from industry fundamentals such as free cash flow generation and operational progress.Narrative Update • Nov 07
CF: Continued Share Repurchases And Low-Carbon Progress Will Support Future Gains
The consensus analyst price target for CF Industries Holdings has shifted modestly lower, dropping from approximately $93.56 to $92.94. Analysts cite a more cautious outlook on revenue growth and industry fundamentals, despite recent adjustments in sector forecasts.Analysis Article • Oct 05
CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.50
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:CF ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $0.50 per share on the 28th of...Analysis Article • Sep 03
When Should You Buy CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF)?
Let's talk about the popular CF Industries Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:CF ). The company's shares received a lot of attention...Analysis Article • Jul 25
CF Industries Holdings' (NYSE:CF) Dividend Will Be $0.50
The board of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. ( NYSE:CF ) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 29th of August...Analysis Article • May 30
These 4 Measures Indicate That CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...Seeking Alpha • Mar 19
CF Industries: The Cash King Of The Fertilizer Industry
Summary CF Industries, the world's largest nitrogen fertilizer producer, boasts an economic moat with low-cost operations and superior logistics, ensuring consistent shareholder value. The company's strategic focus on nitrogen-based products and disciplined capital reinvestment have led to substantial free cash flow and shareholder returns. Future growth is bolstered by ventures into blue and green ammonia, positioning CF ahead of regulatory trends and opening new market opportunities. At $76 per share, CF Industries offers a 36% margin of safety, making it a compelling buy with a 10% yield on owner earnings. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 02
CF Industries: A Trump 2.0 Bellwether
Summary CF Industries, the largest nitrogen fertilizer producer, benefits from low U.S. natural gas prices and strategic export capabilities, positioning it well for growth. Despite risks from energy volatility and global competition, CF's unique location and Trump 2.0 policies mitigate these challenges. Strong agricultural production forecasts in the U.S., particularly for corn and soybeans, bolster CF's market position and growth prospects. Trading at an attractive multiple, CF Industries offers a relatively safe investment with significant free cash flow and long-term shareholder value growth potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 26
CF Industries: Setup Playing Out As Drawn Up - Here's What's Next (Technical Analysis)
Summary Our methodology helps us identify high-probability trading setups, providing guidance and potential risk versus reward on each chart we study, like CF Industries. This approach offers a structured way to analyze markets, helping investors objectively understand price movements and adjust quickly when wrong. We share these levels for CF. The current setup shows key near-term support and an alternative scenario as well. Our system ranks probabilistic market movements and provides alternative perspectives, aiming to keep investors on the right side of trades. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 19
CF Industries: Probably The Ideal Fertilizer Investment
Summary CF Industries, the world's leader in ammonia production, is well-managed and trading at an attractive price for long-term returns, earning a Buy rating. The company's robust financial health, low debt, and steady buybacks and dividends make it a compelling investment despite cyclical and commodity risks. CF's strategic positioning and ability to capitalize on global disruptions, like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlight its resilience and growth potential. Environmental regulations and shifting agricultural trends pose risks, but CF's proactive approach and strong fundamentals support a positive long-term outlook. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How CF Industries Holdings makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 7,407 | 1,758 | 374 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 7,084 | 1,455 | 355 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 6,736 | 1,379 | 337 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 6,447 | 1,302 | 327 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 6,129 | 1,336 | 302 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 5,936 | 1,218 | 306 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 5,983 | 1,164 | 307 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 5,886 | 1,052 | 297 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 6,089 | 1,159 | 292 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 6,631 | 1,525 | 278 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 7,668 | 2,111 | 290 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 8,716 | 2,385 | 312 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 10,330 | 3,023 | 314 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 11,186 | 3,346 | 304 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 11,118 | 3,191 | 286 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 10,159 | 2,568 | 248 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 8,358 | 1,649 | 235 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 6,538 | 917 | 226 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 5,100 | 299 | 218 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 4,585 | 456 | 215 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 4,201 | 400 | 206 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 4,124 | 317 | 205 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 4,071 | 285 | 211 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 4,262 | 378 | 218 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 4,560 | 471 | 229 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 4,590 | 493 | 233 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 4,673 | 487 | 226 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 4,675 | 452 | 223 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 4,473 | 317 | 214 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 4,429 | 290 | 211 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 4,396 | 706 | 213 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 4,226 | 589 | 209 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 4,050 | 444 | 205 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 4,130 | 358 | 195 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 3,898 | -427 | 177 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 3,708 | -370 | 172 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 3,718 | -326 | 175 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 3,685 | -277 | 177 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 3,933 | 70 | 191 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 4,181 | 190 | 189 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 4,358 | 495 | 175 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 4,308 | 700 | 170 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 4,410 | 911 | 153 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 4,403 | 952 | 149 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: CF has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: CF's current net profit margins (23.7%) are higher than last year (21.8%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: CF's earnings have grown by 1.8% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: CF's earnings growth over the past year (31.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (1.8% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: CF earnings growth over the past year (31.6%) exceeded the Chemicals industry 3.5%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: CF's Return on Equity (25.7%) is considered high.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 23:44 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is covered by 43 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Harriet Li | Accountability Research Corporation |
| null null | Argus Research Company |
| Benjamin Theurer | Barclays |