Update shared on 07 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.66%The consensus analyst price target for CF Industries Holdings has shifted modestly lower, dropping from approximately $93.56 to $92.94. Analysts cite a more cautious outlook on revenue growth and industry fundamentals, despite recent adjustments in sector forecasts.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst reports on CF Industries Holdings present a mixed outlook, reflecting varying perspectives on future growth, profitability, and operational risks.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts see potential for cost advantages owing to ongoing integration of low-carbon initiatives within the ammonia segment. This could translate into consolidated pretax benefits and stronger margins.
- There is anticipation that share repurchase activities will continue, which may support long-term valuation and potentially provide a floor for the stock price.
- Some analysts have increased their price targets after improvements in second-half prospects, suggesting expectation of near-term upward movement in the stock.
- Bearish analysts remain concerned about inconsistent performance in industrial end markets, which could weigh on future revenue growth and margin stability.
- The broader macroeconomic setup is described as “decidedly negative,” with recent slippage in commodity pricing despite improvements earlier in the year.
- There is skepticism that weaker seasonality observed in the second quarter will lead to improved demand or pricing strength in the fourth quarter, which diminishes the case for higher future valuations.
- Several analysts have lowered their price targets, reflecting a more cautious stance on sector fundamentals and the company’s near-term execution risk.
What's in the News
- President Trump is considering at least $10 billion in aid for U.S. farmers to offset the impact of tariffs. CF Industries is among public companies in the sector that could be affected (Wall Street Journal).
- CF Industries announced the shipment of 23,500 metric tons of certified low-carbon ammonia from its Donaldsonville, Louisiana facility. This was enabled by the start-up of a major carbon capture and storage project.
- CEO W. Anthony Will will retire effective January 4, 2026. Christopher D. Bohn, the current executive vice president and chief operating officer, has been named as his successor.
- CF Industries reported gross ammonia production of 2.4 million tons for the third quarter, matching the prior year. The company also increased nine-month production to 7.6 million tons, up from 7.2 million tons a year earlier.
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly, from $93.56 to $92.94.
- Discount Rate has risen modestly, from 7.71% to 7.80%.
- Revenue Growth projection has fallen significantly, from -0.07% to -0.90%.
- Net Profit Margin has declined marginally, from 15.94% to 15.92%.
- Future P/E ratio has decreased from 14.82x to 14.39x.
Disclaimer
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