Update shared on 27 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.19%The analyst price target for CF Industries Holdings has been adjusted slightly lower. This change reflects a modest decrease as analysts acknowledge both headwinds in profit margin expectations and ongoing support from industry fundamentals such as free cash flow generation and operational progress.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research on CF Industries Holdings has provided a mixed outlook, balancing optimism around industry fundamentals and company initiatives with caution regarding near-term market headwinds and valuation challenges.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight ongoing strength in free cash flow generation, which supports capital returns to shareholders and continued operational investments.
- The company's advancing clean energy initiatives are viewed as a positive catalyst for long-term growth and differentiation within the sector.
- Expectations for tight ammonia markets in the coming quarters point to favorable supply and demand dynamics that could bolster pricing power.
- Operational progress and execution on strategic initiatives are cited as drivers for incremental gains in both efficiency and valuation.
- Bearish analysts point to slipping macroeconomic momentum and inconsistent industrial end markets, which may pressure earnings outlooks.
- Despite some price target increases, overall rating biases remain cautious or neutral, reflecting moderate confidence in near-term performance.
- Concerns persist regarding a lack of seasonal strength and slippage in commodity businesses, potentially resulting in softer results to close the year.
- Lowered price targets from several analysts suggest a more conservative approach to valuation and profit expectations for the quarters ahead.
What's in the News
- President Trump is considering providing at least $10 billion in aid to U.S. farmers impacted by tariffs. CF Industries is named among publicly traded companies in the sector (Wall Street Journal).
- CF Industries shipped 23,500 metric tons of certified low-carbon ammonia from its Donaldsonville facility to Europe, marking a milestone enabled by the start-up of its CO2 capture and storage project.
- W. Anthony Will, CEO of CF Industries, will retire effective January 4, 2026. Christopher D. Bohn, current executive vice president and COO, will succeed him as CEO and continue his role on the Board until the next annual meeting in 2026.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has been reduced slightly, moving from $92.94 to $92.76 per share.
- Discount Rate has risen modestly, increasing from 7.80% to 7.88%.
- Revenue Growth expectations have been revised lower, changing from -0.90% to -2.30%.
- Net Profit Margin projections have decreased, shifting from 15.92% to 14.13%.
- Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio has increased, rising from 14.39x to 16.39x.
Disclaimer
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