The Mosaic Company

NYSE:MOS Stock Report

Market Cap: US$7.4b

Mosaic Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Mosaic is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 17.8% and 1.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 18% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 5.1% in 3 years.

Key information

17.8%

Earnings growth rate

18.02%

EPS growth rate

Chemicals earnings growth18.4%
Revenue growth rate1.9%
Future return on equity5.13%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated30 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

MOS: Tighter Profit Structure And Phosphate Margin Bottom Will Support Future Rebound

The analyst consensus price target for Mosaic has shifted slightly lower, with the modelled fair value moving from about $32.17 to $30.43 as analysts factor in ongoing pressure on phosphate margins, higher input costs, and recent rating and target cuts across several firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Mosaic shows a mix of cautious and constructive views, with most firms adjusting price targets and ratings to reflect margin pressure in phosphate, high input costs, and evolving expectations for earnings and cash flow.

MOS: Higher Input Costs And DOJ Probe Will Shape Future Returns

Analysts have kept Mosaic's fair value estimate steady at $24.00, while slightly adjusting assumptions around discount rates, revenue trends, margins, and future P/E to reflect a mix of recent downgrades tied to margin pressures and input costs, alongside select price target increases on tighter industry fundamentals. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Mosaic has leaned cautious, with several bearish analysts reducing ratings or trimming price targets as they reassess the balance between input cost pressures, margin recovery, and execution on capital plans.

Mosaic: This Sell-Off Is A Classic Contrarian Opportunity

Apr 15

MOS: Margin Reset And Sector Tailwinds Will Support Future Repricing

Analysts have adjusted Mosaic's fair value estimate to $40.00 from $38.20, citing shifts in fertilizer pricing expectations, updated views on revenue growth and margins, and a higher discount rate that reflects recent sector downgrades along with select price target increases. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research paints a mixed picture for Mosaic, with several downgrades on margin and earnings concerns alongside a cluster of more constructive views that focus on reset expectations, improved cash generation, and higher valuation benchmarks for fertilizer names.

MOS: Sector Repricing And Cash Flow Discipline Will Support Future Rebound

Analysts have nudged Mosaic's average price target slightly higher to around $32, reflecting a mix of cautious revisions tied to softer revenue growth and margins, along with a modestly higher forward P/E multiple as some now see more support for fertilizer sector valuations despite recent earnings pressures. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Mosaic reflects a mixed setup, with some bullish analysts pointing to improving sector valuations and reset expectations, while bearish analysts focus on margin pressure, input cost risks, and execution issues at key assets.

MOS: Higher Input Costs And Weaker Margins Will Pressure Future Returns

Analyst price targets for Mosaic are broadly lower, with changes clustered in the $1 to $6 range as analysts factor in weaker phosphate margins, higher input costs and expectations for softer earnings, even as some highlight potential improvements in cash flow and reset volume expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Mosaic point to a generally cautious tone, with several firms trimming price targets and a mix of ratings that highlight both operational pressure and valuation questions.

MOS: Phosphate Margin Stabilization And Sector Catalysts Will Drive Future Repricing

Analysts have adjusted their price targets for Mosaic in a tight range in recent weeks, with small changes around the low to mid $30s reflecting mixed views on phosphate margins, Q4 commentary, and the broader chemicals and agriculture setup. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Mosaic has been split, but there is a cluster of more optimistic calls focused on phosphate stripping margins, execution around Q4, and how the stock is positioned within broader chemicals and agriculture coverage lists.

MOS: Phosphate Margin Recovery Will Drive Future Repricing Potential

Analysts have trimmed their price expectations for Mosaic. The blended fair value estimate has moved from about US$49.00 to roughly US$38.20, reflecting lower assumed revenue growth and P/E multiples, even as several recent research notes point to improving phosphate margins and mixed views on execution and demand risk.

MOS: Strong Harvest And Buybacks Will Support Future Rebound

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Mosaic by about $0.66 per share. This reflects a blend of recent price target cuts tied to softer phosphate trends and demand deferrals, partly offset by a few upward revisions from firms that see some potential catalysts ahead.

Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of $0.22

Jan 16
Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of $0.22

MOS: Strong Harvest And Buybacks Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their average price targets on Mosaic by a few dollars to roughly the low to mid US$30s, reflecting softer near term fertilizer demand, mixed phosphate volume guidance and execution questions, even as some analysts highlight supportive factors such as a strong U.S. harvest and previous earnings beats in certain segments. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Mosaic clusters around similar themes, but opinions split on how much upside or downside that implies for the stock.

Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.22

Dec 25
Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) Will Pay A Dividend Of $0.22

MOS: Fertilizer Demand And Phosphate Pricing Will Shape A Cautious Outlook

The analyst price target for Mosaic has been cut materially, from about $33.00 to $24.00. Analysts are factoring in weaker near term revenue growth amid softer fertilizer demand and phosphate pricing headwinds, despite some offsetting strength in margins and select business segments.

MOS: Strong Harvest And Deferred Demand Will Support Future Upside

We trim our Mosaic fair value estimate by approximately $1 to $34 per share, as analysts broadly lower price targets in response to softer near term fertilizer demand, weaker phosphate volumes and margins, and higher expected input costs, partially offset by selective optimism on execution and harvest driven demand. Analyst Commentary Street research on Mosaic has turned more mixed as analysts recalibrate expectations for fertilizer pricing, volumes, and input costs.

MOS: Improved Margins And Recent Buyback Will Support Upside Amid Industry Risks

The analyst price target for Mosaic has been lowered by $1.47. This adjustment reflects recent research that cites demand deferrals, softer pricing, and a more cautious near-term outlook.

MOS: Multiyear Fertilizer Demand Outlook Will Drive Upside Despite Market Headwinds

The analyst price target for Mosaic has been modestly reduced amid a series of downward revisions from $43 to $46 into the $30 to $44 range, as analysts cite inconsistent phosphate performance, softer sales volume outlooks, and ongoing macroeconomic headwinds. Analyst Commentary Recent research notes on Mosaic reflect a wide range of outlooks from Wall Street, with both bullish and bearish analysts highlighting key factors influencing the company’s valuation and growth prospects.

Future Pricing Shifts and Market Headwinds Will Shape Fertilizer Momentum

The average analyst price target for Mosaic has decreased modestly to approximately $40 from around $43. Analysts cite cautious earnings setups, inconsistent end market conditions, and ongoing commodity price pressures for the adjustment.

Brazil Facilities And Automation Will Unlock Fertilizer Potential

The analyst price target for Mosaic has edged down recently. The consensus has fallen from $40.46 to $39.96 as analysts cite balanced fertilizer demand and ongoing industry risks, which are offset by improving sector fundamentals.

Brazil Facilities And Automation Will Unlock Fertilizer Potential

Analysts maintain a cautious stance on Mosaic, citing strong fertilizer pricing and defensive sector characteristics offset by management execution concerns, resulting in an unchanged consensus price target of $39.75. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts noted stronger-than-expected fertilizer pricing across nitrogen, phosphate, and potash, driven by geopolitical disruptions, tight supply, and resilient demand.

Why The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) Could Be Worth Watching

Jul 28
Why The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) Could Be Worth Watching

We Think Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

Jul 14
We Think Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) Shareholders Will Want The ROCE Trajectory To Continue

Jun 02
Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) Shareholders Will Want The ROCE Trajectory To Continue

The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) Stocks Shoot Up 30% But Its P/E Still Looks Reasonable

May 20
The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) Stocks Shoot Up 30% But Its P/E Still Looks Reasonable

Mosaic's Revenue Is Growing, But Investors Should Worry About Its Profits

Mar 06

Mosaic's Moment: Why This Inflation-Linked Stock Is Ready To Bloom

Dec 22

Mosaic: Take The Cyclical Opportunity

Nov 21

Mosaic Company: Good Entry Here To Get Long Food Inflation

Nov 05

Mosaic: A Value Investor's Dream

Sep 25
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Operational Efficiencies And Decisive Growth Initiatives Poised To Enhance Financial Performance Despite Analyst Concerns

Mosaic's efficiency improvements and cost reduction efforts are set to enhance its financial performance by lowering expenses.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:MOS - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202812,9738786012,03010
12/31/202712,9048058681,99018
12/31/202613,2434394671,86217
12/31/202512,052541-535825N/A
9/30/202511,8951,229-2041,100N/A
6/30/202511,25394041,185N/A
3/31/202511,0643682131,422N/A
12/31/202411,123175471,299N/A
9/30/202411,4563713011,618N/A
6/30/202412,1942454651,953N/A
3/31/202412,7717757142,178N/A
12/31/202313,6961,1651,0052,407N/A
9/30/202315,0281,3231,4412,825N/A
6/30/202316,8282,1691,7403,066N/A
3/31/202318,8072,8362,3003,579N/A
12/31/202219,1253,5832,6893,936N/A
9/30/202218,4853,7242,1413,411N/A
6/30/202216,5553,2551,6892,944N/A
3/31/202213,9832,6561,0842,374N/A
12/31/202112,3571,6318982,187N/A
9/30/202110,9741,7946841,995N/A
6/30/20219,9371,4166771,913N/A
3/31/20219,1811,0265161,712N/A
12/31/20208,6826664121,583N/A
9/30/20208,301-1,0835501,622N/A
6/30/20208,673-1,1216381,767N/A
3/31/20208,805-1,4012391,461N/A
12/31/20198,906-1,067-1771,095N/A
9/30/20199,351-34N/A968N/A
6/30/20199,525258N/A1,006N/A
3/31/20199,553559N/A1,305N/A
12/31/20189,587470N/A1,410N/A
9/30/20189,159-73N/A1,671N/A
6/30/20188,215-93N/A1,283N/A
3/31/20187,765-64N/A719N/A
12/31/20177,409-107N/A936N/A
9/30/20177,180336N/A847N/A
6/30/20177,147148N/A800N/A
3/31/20177,06740N/A1,140N/A
12/31/20167,163298N/A1,260N/A
9/30/20167,464441N/A1,225N/A
6/30/20167,617562N/A1,325N/A
3/31/20168,430962N/A1,345N/A
12/31/20158,8951,000N/A2,038N/A
9/30/20159,1111,203N/A1,863N/A
6/30/20159,2561,245N/A2,031N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MOS's forecast earnings growth (17.8% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).

Earnings vs Market: MOS's earnings (17.8% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MOS's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MOS's revenue (1.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MOS's revenue (1.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MOS's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (5.1%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/04 08:21
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/01 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

The Mosaic Company is covered by 40 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Farooq HamedBarclays
Benjamin TheurerBarclays
Benjamin TheurerBarclays