Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Analysts maintain a cautious stance on Mosaic, citing strong fertilizer pricing and defensive sector characteristics offset by management execution concerns, resulting in an unchanged consensus price target of $39.75.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts noted stronger-than-expected fertilizer pricing across nitrogen, phosphate, and potash, driven by geopolitical disruptions, tight supply, and resilient demand.
- JPMorgan cited an attractive relative outlook for fertilizer companies compared to petrochemicals, highlighting tight inventories, favorable multi-year supply/demand prospects, and moderate capacity increases.
- RBC and Barclays observed fertilizer equities offering defensive characteristics during market volatility, benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty and limited exposure to tariffs.
- Bearish analysts expressed concern that Mosaic has consistently over-promised and under-delivered, signaling investors may remain cautious until management improves execution and communication.
- Bullish analysts pointed to ongoing strong North American volumes and continued high demand for fertilizers, which persisted even in the face of elevated prices.
What's in the News
- Mosaic completed its announced share repurchase program, buying back 26,679,815 shares (8.05%) for $1,069.46 million, with no shares repurchased in Q2 2025.
- Q3 2025 sales volumes are guided at 1.8–2 million tonnes, reflecting confidence in asset strength.
- Phosphate production guidance for 2025 is set at 6.9–7.2 million tonnes due to extended maintenance downtime in June and July.
- Potash production guidance for 2025 has increased to 9.3–9.5 million tonnes.
- The company expects improved volumes and cost reductions, aiming to achieve per tonne cost targets later in the year.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Mosaic
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $39.75.
- The Net Profit Margin for Mosaic remained effectively unchanged, at 6.50%.
- The Discount Rate for Mosaic remained effectively unchanged, at 8.12%.
Disclaimer
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