Update shared on 07 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.65%The analyst price target for Mosaic has been modestly reduced amid a series of downward revisions from $43 to $46 into the $30 to $44 range, as analysts cite inconsistent phosphate performance, softer sales volume outlooks, and ongoing macroeconomic headwinds.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research notes on Mosaic reflect a wide range of outlooks from Wall Street, with both bullish and bearish analysts highlighting key factors influencing the company’s valuation and growth prospects. The following summarizes the core opinions from analysts in recent weeks.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts note that fertilizer markets currently benefit from tight supply and low inventories, which could drive multi-year growth opportunities for Mosaic.
- Some expect the company’s fundamentals to offer more upside than those in oversupplied sectors, such as petrochemicals, supporting the case for an Overweight or Buy rating.
- Opportunities exist for upside earnings surprises given Mosaic’s position in the agriculture supply chain and the potential for favorable pricing trends in fertilizers.
- Mosaic’s moderate capacity increases are seen as a positive for supporting future growth without risking overextension.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts highlight inconsistent phosphate segment performance and express concerns about Mosaic’s execution, which could limit its ability to close the valuation gap with peers.
- Macroeconomic headwinds, including softer sales outlooks and challenges in key regions such as Brazil, have led to downward revisions in price targets.
- Some see the company as having "over-promised and under-delivered," indicating a need to improve reliability and deliver more consistent results to win back investor confidence.
- The consumer and industrial backdrop remains mixed and demand uncertainties persist, especially given recent softness in certain fertilizer markets and a challenging price environment.
What's in the News
- President Trump is considering at least $10 billion in aid for U.S. farmers to offset the impact of tariffs. Mosaic is named among the affected publicly traded companies (Wall Street Journal).
- The U.S. Department of Agriculture and Department of Justice have launched an antitrust investigation into suppliers of crop inputs, including Mosaic, to scrutinize competitive practices in the agriculture marketplace (Bloomberg).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has declined modestly from $37.69 to $36.69, reflecting updated model assumptions.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 8.29% to 8.46%, indicating a higher perceived risk profile.
- Revenue Growth Forecast has fallen significantly from 4.60% to 2.93%, signaling softer growth expectations.
- Net Profit Margin is projected to improve, increasing from 8.19% to 8.73%.
- Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio has declined from 14.35x to 13.07x, suggesting lower valuation multiples ahead.
Disclaimer
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