Earnings Miss: The Mosaic Company Missed EPS By 9.3% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.5% to US$23.08 in the week after its latest full-year results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$11b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.3% to hit US$0.55 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Mosaic

Following the latest results, Mosaic's 16 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$12.2b in 2025. This would be a solid 9.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 304% to US$2.23. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$11.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.91 in 2025. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Mosaic's future following the latest results, with a substantial gain in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$32.04, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Mosaic analyst has a price target of US$44.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$25.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Mosaic's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 9.5% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 9.6% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that Mosaic is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Mosaic's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$32.04, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Mosaic. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mosaic going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Mosaic (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.