Could The Market Be Wrong About Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE:HCC) Given Its Attractive Financial Prospects?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Warrior Met Coal's (NYSE:HCC) recent performance, when its stock has declined 21% over the past three months. But if you pay close attention, you might gather that its strong financials could mean that the stock could potentially see an increase in value in the long-term, given how markets usually reward companies with good financial health. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Warrior Met Coal's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

Check out our latest analysis for Warrior Met Coal

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Warrior Met Coal is:

18% = US$378m ÷ US$2.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.18.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Warrior Met Coal's Earnings Growth And 18% ROE

At first glance, Warrior Met Coal seems to have a decent ROE. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 11% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. This probably laid the ground for Warrior Met Coal's significant 23% net income growth seen over the past five years. We believe that there might also be other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Warrior Met Coal's growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 18% in the same period, which is great to see.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is Warrior Met Coal fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Warrior Met Coal Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Warrior Met Coal's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 3.0%, which is quite low. This implies that the company is retaining 97% of its profits. This suggests that the management is reinvesting most of the profits to grow the business as evidenced by the growth seen by the company.

Besides, Warrior Met Coal has been paying dividends over a period of eight years. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 5.0% over the next three years. Therefore, the expected rise in the payout ratio explains why the company's ROE is expected to decline to 11% over the same period.

Summary

In total, we are pretty happy with Warrior Met Coal's performance. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a sizeable growth in its earnings. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.