Warrior Met Coal (NYSE:HCC) - Share price, News & Analysis

HCC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

HCC Stock Overview

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry.

Rewards

PE ratio (5.4x) is below the US market (15.5x)

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 55.5% per year for the next 3 years

Warrior Met Coal Competitors

Alpha Metallurgical Resources

NYSE:AMR

US$2.8b

Ramaco Resources

NasdaqGS:METC

US$693.8m

Glencore

LSE:GLEN

UK£62.3b

Vale

BOVESPA:VALE3

R$379.9b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Warrior Met Coal
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$33.18
52 Week High	US$42.95
52 Week Low	US$15.81
Beta	1.06
1 Month Change	-16.36%
3 Month Change	9.50%
1 Year Change	98.33%
3 Year Change	18.08%
5 Year Change	85.36%
Change since IPO	84.33%

Recent News & Updates

May 11

Forecast: Analysts Think Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s (NYSE:HCC) Business Prospects Have Improved Drastically

Celebrations may be in order for Warrior Met Coal, Inc. ( NYSE:HCC ) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a...

Shareholder Returns

	HCC	US Metals and Mining	US Market
7D	5.8%	-3.3%	0.7%
1Y	98.3%	-12.8%	-10.8%

Return vs Industry: HCC exceeded the US Metals and Mining industry which returned -12.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: HCC exceeded the US Market which returned -10.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is HCC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
HCC volatility
HCC Average Weekly Movement	8.6%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement	10.1%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: HCC is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: HCC's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2015	704	Walt Scheller	https://warriormetcoal.com

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers located primarily in Europe, South America, and Asia.

Warrior Met Coal Fundamentals Summary

How do Warrior Met Coal's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
HCC fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$1.70b
Earnings (TTM)	US$318.49m
Revenue (TTM)	US$1.24b

5.4x

P/E Ratio

1.4x

P/S Ratio

Is HCC overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
HCC income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$1.24b
Cost of Revenue	US$563.42m
Gross Profit	US$673.89m
Other Expenses	US$355.40m
Earnings	US$318.49m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	6.17
Gross Margin	54.46%
Net Profit Margin	25.74%
Debt/Equity Ratio	33.4%

How did HCC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.7%

Current Dividend Yield

3%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is Warrior Met Coal undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

5.38x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: HCC ($33.18) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($6.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HCC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: HCC is good value based on its PE Ratio (5.4x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (8.1x).

PE vs Market: HCC is good value based on its PE Ratio (5.4x) compared to the US market (15.5x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: HCC's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: HCC is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.7x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (2x).

Future Growth

How is Warrior Met Coal forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-55.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: HCC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-55.5% per year).

Earnings vs Market: HCC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-55.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: HCC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: HCC's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-16.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: HCC's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-16.7% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: HCC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.9%).

Past Performance

How has Warrior Met Coal performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-27.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: HCC has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: HCC became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: HCC's earnings have declined by 27% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: HCC has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: HCC has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Metals and Mining industry (98.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: HCC's Return on Equity (31.3%) is considered high.

Financial Health

How is Warrior Met Coal's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: HCC's short term assets ($839.6M) exceed its short term liabilities ($155.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: HCC's short term assets ($839.6M) exceed its long term liabilities ($469.1M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: HCC has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: HCC's debt to equity ratio has increased from 0.9% to 33.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: HCC's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (110.7%).

Interest Coverage: HCC's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (13x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Warrior Met Coal current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

0.72%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: HCC's dividend (0.72%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.54%).

High Dividend: HCC's dividend (0.72%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.06%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: HCC is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: HCC is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: HCC is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: HCC is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Materials industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.1yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Walt Scheller (60 yo)

6.08yrs

Tenure

US$5,679,932

Compensation

Mr. Walter J. Scheller III, also known as Walt, has been Chief Executive Officer at Warrior Met Coal, Inc. since March 31, 2016. Mr. Scheller served as the Chief Executive Officer at Walter Energy, Inc. fr...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Walt's total compensation ($USD5.68M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.45M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Walt's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: HCC's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.1 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: HCC's board of directors are considered experienced (5.1 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/17 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/17 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31