Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE:HCC) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.4% to US$49.56 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$1.5b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.8% to hit US$4.79 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Warrior Met Coal

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Warrior Met Coal's five analysts is for revenues of US$1.56b in 2025. This would reflect a credible 2.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 8.4% to US$4.39 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.93 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$71.80, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Warrior Met Coal, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$90.00 and the most bearish at US$62.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Warrior Met Coal's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Warrior Met Coal is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$71.80, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Warrior Met Coal going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Warrior Met Coal (including 1 which is a bit unpleasant) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.