Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

NYSE:HCC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.9b

Warrior Met Coal Valuation

Is HCC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HCC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HCC ($54.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($137.84)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HCC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HCC?

Key metric: As HCC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HCC. This is calculated by dividing HCC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HCC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.6x
EarningsUS$378.34m
Market CapUS$2.87b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HCC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HCC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average26x
AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources
7.2x6.4%US$2.6b
ARCH Arch Resources
14x41.0%US$2.5b
TX Ternium
71.2x47.9%US$5.7b
CMC Commercial Metals
11.7x5.0%US$5.7b
HCC Warrior Met Coal
7.6x4.7%US$2.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HCC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x) compared to the peer average (26x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HCC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold
2.1xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.6xn/aUS$4.55m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
PTEE.F Plaintree Systems
0.9xn/aUS$904.77k
HCC 7.6xIndustry Avg. 15.4xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HCC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (15.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HCC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HCC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.6x
Fair PE Ratio17x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HCC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HCC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$54.89
US$77.00
+40.3%
8.8%US$90.00US$70.00n/a5
Dec ’25US$70.32
US$76.00
+8.1%
9.7%US$90.00US$70.00n/a5
Nov ’25US$64.64
US$76.00
+17.6%
9.7%US$90.00US$70.00n/a5
Oct ’25US$63.12
US$76.60
+21.4%
9.6%US$90.00US$70.00n/a5
Sep ’25US$61.31
US$77.00
+25.6%
10.5%US$92.00US$70.00n/a5
Aug ’25US$64.87
US$78.20
+20.5%
10.8%US$91.00US$70.00n/a5
Jul ’25US$73.37
US$74.83
+2.0%
10.3%US$91.00US$68.00n/a6
Jun ’25US$68.43
US$74.83
+9.4%
10.3%US$91.00US$68.00n/a6
May ’25US$67.90
US$71.83
+5.8%
11.7%US$87.00US$62.00n/a6
Apr ’25US$60.58
US$69.67
+15.0%
14.2%US$89.00US$60.00n/a6
Mar ’25US$57.54
US$69.50
+20.8%
15.1%US$90.00US$60.00n/a6
Feb ’25US$64.50
US$70.00
+8.5%
19.1%US$93.00US$50.00n/a6
Jan ’25US$60.97
US$60.40
-0.9%
9.7%US$67.00US$50.00n/a5
Dec ’24US$58.36
US$58.00
-0.6%
13.3%US$67.00US$48.00US$70.325
Nov ’24US$49.69
US$54.40
+9.5%
18.5%US$67.00US$42.00US$64.645
Oct ’24US$51.08
US$50.40
-1.3%
18.8%US$67.00US$42.00US$63.125
Sep ’24US$41.22
US$45.49
+10.4%
11.1%US$55.00US$39.00US$61.316
Aug ’24US$44.80
US$44.32
-1.1%
18.0%US$58.00US$32.00US$64.876
Jul ’24US$38.95
US$42.99
+10.4%
18.4%US$58.00US$32.00US$73.376
Jun ’24US$33.40
US$43.82
+31.2%
17.8%US$58.00US$32.00US$68.436
May ’24US$33.42
US$44.66
+33.6%
11.6%US$55.00US$39.00US$67.906
Apr ’24US$36.71
US$44.66
+21.6%
11.6%US$55.00US$39.00US$60.586
Mar ’24US$40.16
US$44.66
+11.2%
11.6%US$55.00US$39.00US$57.546
Feb ’24US$37.94
US$44.33
+16.9%
15.1%US$55.00US$35.00US$64.506
Jan ’24US$34.64
US$43.50
+25.6%
12.6%US$50.00US$35.00US$60.976
Dec ’23US$36.76
US$43.00
+17.0%
12.7%US$50.00US$35.00US$58.366

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 21:57
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. is covered by 17 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Nathan MartinBenchmark Company
Mark LevinBenchmark Company
Alexander Robert PearceBMO Capital Markets Equity Research