Ternium S.A.

NYSE:TX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.9b

Ternium Valuation

Is TX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TX ($30.31) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($384.21)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TX?

Key metric: As TX is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TX. This is calculated by dividing TX's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TX's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio75x
EarningsUS$79.35m
Market CapUS$5.87b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.5x
CMC Commercial Metals
12.7x5.0%US$6.4b
ATI ATI
20.9x16.6%US$8.1b
X United States Steel
18.3x38.0%US$7.4b
CRS Carpenter Technology
37.9x17.4%US$8.7b
TX Ternium
75x47.9%US$5.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (75x) compared to the peer average (22.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold
2.1xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.5xn/aUS$4.96m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
PTEE.F Plaintree Systems
1.3xn/aUS$891.84k
TX 75.0xIndustry Avg. 16.2xNo. of Companies6PE01224364860+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (75x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (16.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio75x
Fair PE Ratio34.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (75x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (34.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$30.31
US$44.27
+46.1%
10.4%US$53.00US$38.00n/a11
Dec ’25US$33.17
US$45.68
+37.7%
11.0%US$53.00US$38.00n/a11
Nov ’25US$34.23
US$46.59
+36.1%
9.5%US$53.00US$40.00n/a11
Oct ’25US$37.56
US$47.00
+25.1%
10.6%US$55.00US$40.00n/a11
Sep ’25US$33.67
US$48.09
+42.8%
10.3%US$57.00US$40.00n/a11
Aug ’25US$33.61
US$48.27
+43.6%
10.2%US$57.00US$40.00n/a11
Jul ’25US$36.91
US$50.09
+35.7%
8.2%US$56.00US$40.00n/a11
Jun ’25US$43.18
US$49.73
+15.2%
8.4%US$56.00US$40.00n/a11
May ’25US$42.71
US$49.73
+16.4%
7.8%US$54.00US$40.00n/a11
Apr ’25US$41.68
US$48.68
+16.8%
7.0%US$53.00US$40.00n/a11
Mar ’25US$40.36
US$48.36
+19.8%
6.8%US$53.00US$40.00n/a11
Feb ’25US$38.87
US$49.40
+27.1%
4.5%US$53.00US$45.00n/a10
Jan ’25US$42.47
US$48.77
+14.8%
4.7%US$53.00US$45.00n/a11
Dec ’24US$40.34
US$48.05
+19.1%
5.3%US$53.00US$44.00US$33.1711
Nov ’24US$36.38
US$48.50
+33.3%
5.5%US$53.00US$44.00US$34.2311
Oct ’24US$39.90
US$48.82
+22.4%
6.6%US$53.00US$44.00US$37.5611
Sep ’24US$42.41
US$48.50
+14.4%
7.1%US$53.00US$42.00US$33.6712
Aug ’24US$43.92
US$48.63
+10.7%
6.3%US$53.00US$42.00US$33.6112
Jul ’24US$39.65
US$49.65
+25.2%
9.3%US$61.00US$42.00US$36.9113
Jun ’24US$38.79
US$49.61
+27.9%
9.6%US$61.00US$42.00US$43.1813
May ’24US$42.59
US$49.72
+16.7%
9.6%US$61.00US$42.00US$42.7113
Apr ’24US$41.26
US$47.96
+16.2%
12.1%US$61.00US$35.00US$41.6813
Mar ’24US$44.06
US$45.27
+2.7%
16.7%US$61.00US$34.00US$40.3613
Feb ’24US$40.78
US$43.96
+7.8%
16.8%US$61.00US$34.00US$38.8713
Jan ’24US$30.56
US$41.25
+35.0%
19.4%US$61.00US$33.00US$42.4712
Dec ’23US$30.83
US$41.50
+34.6%
19.9%US$61.00US$33.00US$40.3412

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/17 23:09
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/17 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Ternium S.A. is covered by 23 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christian ReosAllaria Ledesma & Cia Sociedad de Bolsa S.A.
Leonardo CorreaBarclays
Alessandro AbateBerenberg