Ternium S.A.

NYSE:TX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$7.1b

Ternium Valuation

Is TX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

US$84.98
Fair Value
57.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: TX ($36.11) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($84.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TX?

Key metric: As TX is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TX. This is calculated by dividing TX's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TX's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.9x
EarningsUS$594.93m
Market CapUS$7.09b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average78.7x
CMC Commercial Metals
178.2x86.45%US$6.6b
CRS Carpenter Technology
32.8x14.24%US$12.3b
HCC Warrior Met Coal
83.6x87.66%US$3.4b
RS Reliance
20.2x10.37%US$15.0b
TX Ternium
11.9x14.26%US$7.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the peer average (78.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AUCO.Y Polymetal International
4xn/aUS$899.89m
MSB Mesabi Trust
4.6xn/aUS$422.60m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
1.3xn/aUS$8.24m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
TX 11.9xIndustry Avg. 24.6xNo. of Companies7PE020406080100+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (24.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.9x
Fair PE Ratio20.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$36.11
US$34.69
-3.93%
9.47%US$40.00US$30.00n/a13
Sep ’26US$33.16
US$34.62
+4.39%
9.43%US$41.00US$30.00n/a13
Aug ’26US$31.95
US$34.67
+8.50%
10.86%US$41.00US$26.00n/a12
Jul ’26US$30.48
US$35.96
+17.97%
20.06%US$53.00US$22.00n/a12
Jun ’26US$27.38
US$36.04
+31.64%
19.57%US$53.00US$23.00n/a12
May ’26US$29.21
US$36.29
+24.24%
18.26%US$53.00US$25.00n/a12
Apr ’26US$30.89
US$38.79
+25.58%
14.41%US$53.00US$32.00n/a12
Mar ’26US$28.89
US$39.41
+36.41%
13.78%US$53.00US$33.00n/a11
Feb ’26US$30.00
US$42.91
+43.03%
13.96%US$53.00US$33.00n/a11
Jan ’26US$29.08
US$44.27
+52.24%
10.37%US$53.00US$38.00n/a11
Dec ’25US$33.17
US$45.68
+37.72%
10.99%US$53.00US$38.00n/a11
Nov ’25US$34.23
US$46.59
+36.11%
9.52%US$53.00US$40.00n/a11
Oct ’25US$37.56
US$47.00
+25.13%
10.62%US$55.00US$40.00US$35.3611
Sep ’25US$33.67
US$48.09
+42.83%
10.28%US$57.00US$40.00US$33.1611
Aug ’25US$33.61
US$48.27
+43.63%
10.15%US$57.00US$40.00US$31.9511
Jul ’25US$36.91
US$50.09
+35.71%
8.19%US$56.00US$40.00US$30.4811
Jun ’25US$43.18
US$49.73
+15.16%
8.41%US$56.00US$40.00US$27.3811
May ’25US$42.71
US$49.73
+16.43%
7.77%US$54.00US$40.00US$29.2111
Apr ’25US$41.68
US$48.68
+16.80%
6.98%US$53.00US$40.00US$30.8911
Mar ’25US$40.36
US$48.36
+19.83%
6.79%US$53.00US$40.00US$28.8911
Feb ’25US$38.87
US$49.40
+27.09%
4.45%US$53.00US$45.00US$30.0010
Jan ’25US$42.47
US$48.77
+14.84%
4.65%US$53.00US$45.00US$29.0811
Dec ’24US$40.34
US$48.05
+19.10%
5.30%US$53.00US$44.00US$33.1711
Nov ’24US$36.38
US$48.50
+33.32%
5.51%US$53.00US$44.00US$34.2311
Oct ’24US$39.90
US$48.82
+22.35%
6.64%US$53.00US$44.00US$37.5611
US$34.69
Fair Value
4.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/10/05 00:38
End of Day Share Price 2025/10/03 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Ternium S.A. is covered by 23 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christian ReosAllaria Ledesma & Cia Sociedad de Bolsa S.A.
Leonardo CorreaBarclays
Alessandro AbateBerenberg