Ternium Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
Ternium is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 16.1% and 5.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 16.5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 9.4% in 3 years.
Key information
16.1%
Earnings growth rate
16.47%
EPS growth rate
| Metals and Mining earnings growth | 13.4% |
| Revenue growth rate | 5.1% |
| Future return on equity | 9.35% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 07 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 02
TX: Dividend Reset And Stronger Margins Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts have adjusted their price target on Ternium to $43.46 from $40.19, citing updates to discount rate assumptions, expectations for revenue growth, the profit margin outlook, and future P/E estimates. What's in the News Ternium's Board revised its dividend proposal for fiscal year 2025 to a total payout of $2.20 per ADS ($0.22 per share), or $432 million, compared with the previously announced $2.70 per ADS.Seeking Alpha • Apr 23
Ternium: Retest Of $45+ Likely As We Approach Q1 Earnings Release (Rating Upgrade) (Technical Analysis)
Summary Ternium S.A. (TX) has rebounded above $40, with technicals signaling potential for further upside ahead of Q1 FY26 earnings. TX benefits from strong production capacity, integrated supply chain synergies, and strategic expansion in Mexico and Latin America. Despite projected FY26 EPS growth, bearish FY27 revisions and cyclical industry risks warrant caution and careful position sizing. Technical indicators are bullish, but waning volume and possible false breakouts suggest waiting for Q1 results before committing capital. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 17
TX: Higher Discount Rate And Thinner Margins Will Likely Limit Future Upside
Analysts are keeping Ternium's price target steady at $33.00, highlighting updated assumptions for a higher discount rate, lower revenue growth and profit margin, and a higher future P/E multiple as key drivers behind the revised view. Valuation Changes Fair Value: $33.00 is unchanged, indicating no shift in the central value estimate.
Narrative Update • Apr 03
TX: Stronger Margin Outlook And Lower P/E Assumptions Will Support Upside Potential
Analysts have kept their Ternium price target steady at $50.00, with the unchanged fair value reflecting updated views on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E that broadly offset each other in their models. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Model fair value remains steady at $50.00, indicating no change in the headline valuation output.Narrative Update • Mar 20
TX: Higher Required Return And Richer P/E Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts have nudged their price target on Ternium slightly higher to about $40.19 from roughly $39.88, reflecting updated views on discount rates, modestly adjusted revenue growth expectations, and a small change in assumed profit margins and future price-to-earnings ratios. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Ternium's estimated fair value is now $40.19, compared with the prior figure of $39.88, indicating only a small adjustment.Narrative Update • Mar 06
TX: Higher Future P/E Assumption Will Support Stronger Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted their price target on Ternium from $43.00 to $50.00. This change reflects updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple.Narrative Update • Feb 19
TX: Higher Required Return And Earnings Multiple Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts now see Ternium's fair value at about $39.88 per share, up from roughly $36.81. This reflects updated views on its discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Feb 05
TX: Higher Discount Rate And Modest Margins Will Likely Restrain Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their price targets for Ternium slightly higher to around $33 per share, reflecting updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, while keeping overall fair value broadly in line with prior views. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Unchanged at around $33.00 per share, keeping the central valuation view steady.Narrative Update • Jan 22
TX: Higher Future P/E Will Likely Constrain Returns Despite Slight Margin Tweaks
Analysts have raised their price target on Ternium from US$30.00 to US$33.00, citing updated assumptions in their models for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and a higher future P/E multiple. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Adjusted from US$30.00 to US$33.00, representing a modest upward revision in the estimated share value.Narrative Update • Jan 07
TX: Future P/E And Softer Margins Will Likely Pressure Returns
Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target on Ternium, keeping fair value at $30.00 while fine tuning underlying assumptions such as a slightly lower discount rate, a higher revenue growth outlook, a marginally softer profit margin, and a slightly higher future P/E. Together, these changes refine rather than overhaul their view of the stock.Narrative Update • Dec 24
TX: Future Earnings Multiple Will Likely Compress From Current Levels
Analysts have raised their price target on Ternium from 26.00 dollars to 30.00 dollars, citing higher anticipated revenue growth, improved profit margins, and a lower expected future P/E multiple. Valuation Changes Fair Value: increased moderately from 26.0 dollars to 30.0 dollars per share.Narrative Update • Dec 10
TX: Slightly Higher Required Return Will Shape Fairly Balanced Outlook
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Ternium to bring it more in line with their fair value estimate of approximately $36.81 per share. This adjustment reflects slightly higher assumed discount rates while keeping expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and future valuation multiples broadly unchanged.Analysis Article • Dec 03
Returns On Capital At Ternium (NYSE:TX) Paint A Concerning Picture
What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term...Narrative Update • Nov 26
TX: Subtle Shifts In Margin Outlook Will Influence Fair Value Ahead
Narrative Update on Ternium: Analyst Price Target Revision Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Ternium from $35.96 to $36.81, citing subtle adjustments in growth projections and profit expectations. Valuation Changes Fair Value has risen slightly from $35.96 to $36.81.Narrative Update • Nov 12
TX: Revenue Strength And Margin Pressure Will Shape Fair Valuation Outlook
Analysts have modestly raised their price target for Ternium from $35.65 to $35.96. They cite improved revenue growth forecasts, even though a slightly lower profit margin is anticipated.Analysis Article • Nov 05
Solid Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Ternium (NYSE:TX)
Ternium S.A.'s ( NYSE:TX ) robust recent earnings didn't do much to move the stock. However the statutory profit number...Analysis Article • Nov 01
Ternium S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Ternium S.A. ( NYSE:TX ) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to...Narrative Update • Oct 29
Pesqueria Center Investment And Nearshoring Will Fuel Steel Demand
Analysts have raised their price target for Ternium from $35.31 to $35.65. They cite incremental improvements in key financial metrics as the basis for this modest increase.Narrative Update • Oct 14
Pesqueria Center Investment And Nearshoring Will Fuel Steel Demand
Analysts have slightly raised their price target for Ternium, increasing it from $34.62 to $35.31. This change is based on improved profit margin projections and adjustments for modest changes in revenue growth expectations.Analysis Article • Oct 03
The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From Ternium S.A.'s (NYSE:TX) Revenues Yet
Ternium S.A.'s ( NYSE:TX ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x might make it look like a strong buy right now...Analysis Article • Jul 23
Here's Why Ternium (NYSE:TX) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Analysis Article • Jun 27
Ternium (NYSE:TX) Could Be Struggling To Allocate Capital
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Analysis Article • May 31
Potential Upside For Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) Not Without Risk
Ternium S.A.'s ( NYSE:TX ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x might make it look like a buy right now compared to...Seeking Alpha • Jan 31
Ternium: Appealing And Risky At The Same Time
Summary TX is an appealing stock in a number of ways, which includes a generous dividend and relatively low multiples. The stock has been weighed down by tough conditions in the steel market and the uncertainty of what tariffs could bring. TX has not done so badly considering the circumstances and there is reason to think 2025 could be a better year than 2024. Long TX has a number of things going for it, but one must be aware of the risks hanging over TX, which could prove disruptive. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Jan 19
Nearshoring And New Facilities Will Expand Steel Production Capacity By 2026
Increasing production capacity with new facilities in Pesqueria will drive future revenue growth by meeting steel demand in key industries.Seeking Alpha • Nov 14
Ternium: Don't Judge A Book By Its Cover
Summary Ternium has a current level of net debt of $1.46 billion, with extraordinary FCF generation over the last five years. Despite the fall in the international price of steel, the company maintained a solid financial performance. The company's Steel Products Shipments reached 4,123 tons, this amount implies an increase of 7% compared to Q2 2024. TX's board of directors approved the payment of a provisional dividend of $0.90 per ADS. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 19
Ternium: Still Not A Buy As Near-Term Growth Prospects Remain Unfavorable
Summary Ternium's near-term growth faces headwinds primarily due to lower prices in Mexico, impacting sales and margins despite strong shipment recovery in Argentina and Brazil. The near-term top line growth prospects remain weak, as pricing and demand remain soft in certain parts of the Mexico region. Margin prospects also look weak due to lower prices and lower volume in certain parts of the business, making it a hold for now despite a cheap valuation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 02
Ternium: Patience Should Pay Off, But Near-Term Conditions Are Weak
Summary Ternium reported weaker-than-expected Q2'24 results and weaker EBITDA guidance for Q3'24, as the company is seeing significant steel price pressure and higher cash production costs. While this is not the best of times for Ternium, the company's per-tonne profitability still compares favorably to global producers (including Steel Dynamics) and demand should improve later this year. Ternium offers attractive leverage to significant manufacturing nearshoring growth in Mexico, as well as further import substitution in key markets like autos. While there is still a risk that the cyclical low could be even lower than expected, Ternium looks too cheap across a range of metrics and looks undervalued below the $50's. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • May 04
Ternium: Expected Margin Contraction Makes Me Avoid This Stock Despite A Cheap Valuation
Summary Ternium is a leading steel manufacturing company with a strong market presence in the Americas, primarily in Mexico. Topline should continue to expand with strong demand in the Mexican region. Margins are expected to be under pressure in the coming quarters, which makes this stock a hold despite a discounted valuation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 07
Ternium: Trading At Less Than 3 Times EBITDA
Summary Ternium S.A. ADR EACH REPR 10 ORD NPV's investments in growth are starting to pay off, with a total return of over 400% since 2019. The demand for steel and margins remained robust in Latin America in 2023, contributing to Ternium's strong financial performance. Despite high capex commitments in the next few years, Ternium's healthy balance sheet and anticipated cash flows make it an interesting investment opportunity. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 18,046 | 1,155 | 863 | 2,204 | 8 |
| 12/31/2027 | 17,427 | 1,004 | 746 | 1,969 | 11 |
| 12/31/2026 | 16,517 | 921 | -538 | 1,602 | 9 |
| 3/31/2026 | 15,610 | 571 | -65 | 2,324 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 15,609 | 425 | -187 | 2,314 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 15,711 | 584 | -341 | 2,258 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 16,236 | 595 | -310 | 2,025 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 16,804 | -348 | -296 | 1,638 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 17,649 | -54 | 41 | 1,906 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 18,704 | 79 | 251 | 2,152 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 19,408 | -691 | 985 | 2,870 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 18,765 | 663 | 634 | 2,340 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 17,610 | 676 | 1,040 | 2,501 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 16,226 | 302 | 1,793 | 2,816 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 15,167 | 1,194 | 2,100 | 2,829 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 15,733 | 1,366 | 2,038 | 2,697 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 16,414 | 1,768 | 2,172 | 2,753 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 17,198 | 2,726 | 2,312 | 2,856 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 17,664 | 3,775 | 1,890 | 2,408 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 17,146 | 3,998 | 2,523 | 3,042 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 16,091 | 3,825 | 2,154 | 2,677 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 14,341 | 3,622 | 1,375 | 1,897 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 11,887 | 2,371 | 1,288 | 1,771 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 9,713 | 1,393 | 1,214 | 1,646 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 8,735 | 778 | 1,201 | 1,761 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 8,406 | 54 | 1,052 | 1,799 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 8,717 | 198 | 914 | 1,845 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 9,728 | 334 | 515 | 1,615 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 10,193 | 564 | N/A | 1,648 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 10,579 | 844 | N/A | 1,811 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 11,128 | 1,273 | N/A | 1,762 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 11,394 | 1,386 | N/A | 2,027 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 11,455 | 1,507 | N/A | 1,739 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 11,586 | 1,336 | N/A | 1,215 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 11,122 | 1,008 | N/A | 1,003 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 10,422 | 964 | N/A | 486 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 9,700 | 886 | N/A | 384 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 8,782 | 824 | N/A | 630 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 8,103 | 858 | N/A | 605 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 7,644 | 763 | N/A | 948 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 7,224 | 596 | N/A | 1,100 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 7,184 | 351 | N/A | 1,135 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 7,274 | 147 | N/A | 1,166 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 7,407 | 34 | N/A | 1,237 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 7,877 | 8 | N/A | 1,323 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 8,222 | 187 | N/A | 1,218 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 8,495 | -368 | N/A | 1,255 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: TX's forecast earnings growth (16.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: TX's earnings (16.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.4% per year).
High Growth Earnings: TX's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: TX's revenue (5.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: TX's revenue (5.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: TX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.4%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 18:55 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Ternium S.A. is covered by 18 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Leonardo Correa | Barclays |
| Alessandro Abate | Berenberg |
| Caio Ribeiro | BofA Global Research |