Commercial Metals Company

NYSE:CMC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.8b

Commercial Metals Valuation

Is CMC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CMC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CMC ($59.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($83.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CMC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CMC?

Key metric: As CMC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CMC. This is calculated by dividing CMC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CMC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.9x
EarningsUS$485.49m
Market CapUS$6.77b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CMC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CMC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average41.7x
TX Ternium
83x45.2%US$6.6b
ATI ATI
22x16.6%US$8.3b
X United States Steel
22x35.3%US$8.8b
CRS Carpenter Technology
39.7x16.8%US$9.2b
CMC Commercial Metals
14x6.1%US$6.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CMC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the peer average (41.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CMC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold
2.1xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.6xn/aUS$5.46m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
ZCRM.F Zincore Metals
0.5xn/aUS$852.33k
CMC 13.9xIndustry Avg. 19.1xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CMC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (19.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CMC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CMC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.9x
Fair PE Ratio17.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CMC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CMC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$59.72
US$63.00
+5.5%
5.0%US$69.00US$60.00n/a6
Nov ’25US$54.43
US$63.00
+15.7%
5.0%US$69.00US$60.00n/a6
Oct ’25US$54.56
US$63.71
+16.8%
4.5%US$69.00US$60.00n/a7
Sep ’25US$53.59
US$63.33
+18.2%
5.1%US$69.00US$60.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$57.63
US$63.33
+9.9%
5.1%US$69.00US$60.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$53.52
US$63.33
+18.3%
5.1%US$69.00US$60.00n/a6
Jun ’25US$56.32
US$65.50
+16.3%
7.8%US$74.00US$60.00n/a6
May ’25US$54.19
US$65.16
+20.2%
7.3%US$74.00US$60.00n/a7
Apr ’25US$58.74
US$62.87
+7.0%
8.7%US$74.00US$56.00n/a7
Mar ’25US$53.60
US$59.27
+10.6%
12.0%US$74.00US$52.00n/a7
Feb ’25US$51.87
US$59.27
+14.3%
12.0%US$74.00US$52.00n/a7
Jan ’25US$50.04
US$56.83
+13.6%
15.1%US$74.00US$48.00n/a6
Dec ’24US$46.38
US$57.00
+22.9%
15.0%US$74.00US$48.00n/a6
Nov ’24US$43.40
US$57.00
+31.3%
15.0%US$74.00US$48.00US$54.436
Oct ’24US$49.41
US$61.33
+24.1%
9.5%US$74.00US$56.00US$54.566
Sep ’24US$57.65
US$58.75
+1.9%
15.4%US$74.00US$39.00US$53.598
Aug ’24US$57.86
US$58.75
+1.5%
15.4%US$74.00US$39.00US$57.638
Jul ’24US$52.66
US$57.43
+9.1%
14.9%US$70.00US$39.00US$53.527
Jun ’24US$43.22
US$56.43
+30.6%
15.1%US$70.00US$39.00US$56.327
May ’24US$45.94
US$56.43
+22.8%
15.1%US$70.00US$39.00US$54.197
Apr ’24US$48.90
US$56.71
+16.0%
17.6%US$76.00US$39.00US$58.747
Mar ’24US$51.84
US$56.21
+8.4%
18.0%US$76.50US$39.00US$53.607
Feb ’24US$56.01
US$55.94
-0.1%
17.0%US$76.50US$39.00US$51.878
Jan ’24US$48.30
US$47.43
-1.8%
8.9%US$53.00US$39.00US$50.047
Dec ’23US$49.06
US$45.43
-7.4%
10.8%US$53.00US$39.00US$46.387
Nov ’23US$45.76
US$44.86
-2.0%
10.2%US$53.00US$39.00US$43.407

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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