Commercial Metals Company

NYSE:CMC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$8.0b

Commercial Metals Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Commercial Metals is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 8.2% and 7% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 10.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 12.8% in 3 years.

Key information

8.2%

Earnings growth rate

10.58%

EPS growth rate

Metals and Mining earnings growth13.4%
Revenue growth rate7.0%
Future return on equity12.79%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated30 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Apr 29

CMC: Future Upside Will Be Driven By Ongoing Buybacks And Rising Dividend

Analysts are keeping their $85.00 price target for Commercial Metals unchanged, citing slightly adjusted assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E as the main reasons for maintaining this level. What's in the News Commercial Metals completed a share repurchase tranche covering the period from December 1, 2025 to February 28, 2026, buying back 249,154 shares, or 0.22% of shares, for US$18.3 million under its existing authorization (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Apr 14

CMC: Future Upside Will Be Driven By Buybacks And Rising Dividend Payout

Analysts have lifted their price target on Commercial Metals to $85 from $80, reflecting updated assumptions for revenue growth, profitability, discount rate, and a slightly lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News Commercial Metals completed a share repurchase tranche, buying 249,154 shares, or 0.22% of shares, for $18.3 million between December 1, 2025 and February 28, 2026, bringing total repurchases under the October 13, 2021 authorization to 15,131,239 shares, or 12.98%, for $702.21 million (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Mar 31

CMC: Ongoing Buybacks And Rising Dividend Will Support Upside Potential

Analysts have adjusted their price target for Commercial Metals to approximately $69. This reflects updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Mar 17

CMC: Share Repurchases Will Support Higher Future P/E And Upside Potential

Analysts have maintained their $69.02 price target for Commercial Metals, noting that updated assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E broadly offset each other and support the existing valuation view. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to November 30, 2025, Commercial Metals repurchased 663,220 shares for $38.9 million, equal to 0.6% of its shares.
Seeking Alpha • Mar 14

Commercial Metals Company: Not Now, But Maybe Later In 2026E

Summary Commercial Metals Company stands out as a leading US-based steel recycler with international operations and a strong ESG arc-furnace focus. CMC's growth is driven by infrastructure demand, IIJA tailwinds, and recent strategic M&A, notably in precast concrete, supporting margin stability and future deleveraging. Despite record earnings and robust liquidity, valuation concerns, forecast volatility, low yield, and litigation risk prompt a 'HOLD' rating with a $58/share price target. I view CMC as fundamentally sound and well-run, but the current risk/reward is not compelling enough for a 'BUY' until a more attractive entry point emerges. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Mar 03

CMC: Share Repurchases And Higher P/E Assumptions Will Shape Fair Value Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target on Commercial Metals from $66.00 to approximately $69.02, citing updated assumptions related to discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E levels. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to November 30, 2025, Commercial Metals repurchased 663,220 shares for $38.9 million, representing 0.6% of its shares.
Narrative Update • Feb 17

CMC: Share Repurchases And Higher P/E Assumptions Will Signal Overvaluation

Analysts have raised their price target on Commercial Metals from $41.00 to $66.00, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to November 30, 2025, Commercial Metals repurchased 663,220 shares for $38.9 million, accounting for 0.6% of its shares.
Narrative Update • Feb 03

CMC: Ongoing Buybacks And Refined Assumptions Will Guide A Balanced Outlook

Analysts have nudged their price target on Commercial Metals slightly higher to about US$80.30 from roughly US$79.90, reflecting updated views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News Commercial Metals repurchased 663,220 shares between October 1, 2025 and November 30, 2025 for US$38.9 million, representing 0.6% of the company.
Narrative Update • Jan 20

CMC: Ongoing Buybacks And Updated Assumptions Will Shape A Balanced Outlook

Analysts now see fair value for Commercial Metals at US$79.90, up from US$74.00, citing updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate assumptions, and a lower projected future P/E multiple. What's in the News Commercial Metals reported repurchasing 663,220 shares between October 1, 2025 and November 30, 2025 for US$38.9 million, representing 0.6% of its shares.
Narrative Update • Jan 05

CMC: Completed Buybacks And Revised Assumptions Will Shape Measured Future Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target on Commercial Metals from US$67.85 to US$74.00, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and a lower future P/E multiple in their valuation work. What's in the News Commercial Metals completed a share repurchase tranche covering the period from June 1, 2025 to August 31, 2025, buying back 974,462 shares for US$49.97m, equal to 0.87% of shares outstanding (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Dec 14

CMC: Future Upside Will Be Driven By Expanded Earnings Multiple Despite Legal Overhang

Analysts have raised their price target on Commercial Metals from 64.77 dollars to 80.00 dollars. They cited a higher expected future valuation multiple, despite moderating assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins.
Narrative Update • Nov 30

CMC: Share Buyback Momentum And Legal Risks Will Shape Future Performance

Analysts have raised the price target for Commercial Metals by $1.00 to $67.85, reflecting modest improvements in expected revenue growth despite a slight contraction in profit margin forecasts. What's in the News From June 1, 2025 to August 31, 2025, Commercial Metals completed the repurchase of 974,462 shares for $49.97 million, bringing the total shares repurchased under its 2021 buyback program to 14,218,865 shares for $645.01 million (Buyback Tranche Update).
Narrative Update • Nov 16

CMC: Share Buyback Completion Expected To Drive Future Upside Momentum

Commercial Metals Price Target Raised Amid Updated Analyst Outlook Analysts have increased their price target for Commercial Metals from $66.45 to $66.85, citing modest adjustments to model assumptions and updated discount rate expectations. What's in the News From June 1, 2025 to August 31, 2025, Commercial Metals repurchased 974,462 shares for $49.97 million.
Narrative Update • Nov 01

CMC: Share Repurchases And Legal Appeal Will Drive Near-Term Expansion

Analysts have raised their price target for Commercial Metals from $64.20 to $66.45. They cite expectations for stronger revenue growth, even though profit margin forecasts have been slightly moderated.
Narrative Update • Oct 18

TAG Program And Arizona 2 Will Drive Future Expansion

Analysts have raised their price target for Commercial Metals from $61.35 to $64.20. They cite updated expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and valuation metrics.
Analysis Article • Oct 18

Commercial Metals (NYSE:CMC) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.18

Commercial Metals Company's ( NYSE:CMC ) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.18 per share on 13th of November...
Narrative Update • Oct 04

TAG Program And Arizona 2 Will Drive Future Expansion

Analysts have raised their price target for Commercial Metals from $59.25 to $61.35. They cite higher anticipated revenue growth and a modest increase in the discount rate, despite a slight decline in profit margin forecasts.
Narrative Update • Sep 16

TAG Program And Arizona 2 Will Drive Future Expansion

The modest uptick in Commercial Metals' price target is supported by a slight increase in its future P/E multiple, while revenue growth forecasts remain stable, resulting in a revised fair value of $59.25. What's in the News From March 1, 2025 to May 31, 2025, Commercial Metals repurchased 1,113,014 shares for $50.4 million, representing 0.98% of shares outstanding.
Narrative Update • Aug 30

TAG Program And Arizona 2 Will Drive Future Expansion

The fair value estimate for Commercial Metals has edged up as analysts factor in a modest increase in the company's forward P/E multiple, with the consensus price target rising slightly from $56.75 to $57.75. What's in the News Repurchased 1,113,014 shares (0.98%) for $50.4 million between March 1 and May 31, 2025.
Analysis Article • Jun 16

Commercial Metals (NYSE:CMC) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Seeking Alpha • Jan 15

Commercial Metals: Improving Demand, But Supply Growth And Valuation Are Both Concerns

Summary CMC reported mixed fiscal Q1 results with revenue declines and margin pressures, but the North American steel business outperformed expectations on stronger pricing and good cost control. Destocking could be an issue for a couple more quarters, but longer-term non-resi indicators are turning up and highway spending should grow at a high-single-digit rate in 2025. Better European results are likely tied to a recovery in Germany, which I do expect later in 2025, and the Emerging Business segment gives valuable exposure to higher-margin downstream services. Valuation appears decent with potential beat-and-raise later quarters in 2025, but risks from commodity market volatility and increasing supply remain, and I'd like to see more capital going to shareholders. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 01

Commercial Metals Company: Maintaining Bearish Stance On Pricey Valuation And Sustained Growth Struggles

Summary Technicals point to a market-top on the intermediate 5-year chart. Sales, earnings & margins decreased meaningfully in fiscal 2024. A no-growth environment is also expected in fiscal 2025. Management is selling investors on the TAG program (A program aimed at driving internal efficiencies aggressively) but meaningful impacts will take years to develop. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Oct 20

Innovative Initiatives And Global Expansion Fuel Growth Despite Economic Challenges

The TAG initiative and Arizona 2's ramp-up are set to enhance margins and earnings growth by improving production capacity and operational excellence.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 08

Commercial Metals Company: The Green Steel Giant Is Priced Just Out Of Reach

Summary Commercial Metals Company has reformed its compensation package, focused on sustainability, and shown profitability, but recent decline in profits indicates potential overvaluation. CMC produces rebar for construction, prioritizes sustainability, and benefits from high steel prices, but faces challenges with declining profitability. Despite historically high profits, CMC's profitability is declining, and the company may be overvalued based on its intrinsic value calculations. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:CMC - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
8/31/20289,911622793N/A5
8/31/20279,8417217421,09810
8/31/20269,16969038795810
2/28/20268,387505394840N/A
11/30/20258,009438296706N/A
8/31/20257,79885312715N/A
5/31/20257,68037376752N/A
2/28/20257,73973427795N/A
11/30/20247,833134476852N/A
8/31/20247,926485575900N/A
5/31/20248,139566548957N/A
2/29/20248,4066806571,135N/A
11/30/20238,5757746921,233N/A
8/31/20238,8008607371,344N/A
5/31/20238,9979647981,393N/A
2/28/20239,1681,0436571,205N/A
11/30/20229,1591,2465341,047N/A
8/31/20228,9131,217250700N/A
5/31/20228,5371,08125376N/A
2/28/20227,866899-6282N/A
11/30/20217,32058249266N/A
8/31/20216,73041344228N/A
5/31/20216,108328173354N/A
2/28/20215,605262360539N/A
11/30/20205,484259453633N/A
8/31/20205,476278604791N/A
5/31/20205,610296606787N/A
2/29/20205,875311475643N/A
11/30/20195,936262N/A541N/A
8/31/20195,829199N/A37N/A
5/31/20195,594164N/A-322N/A
2/28/20195,193128N/A-603N/A
11/30/20184,845123N/A-671N/A
8/31/20184,644135N/A-434N/A
5/31/20184,41974N/A-175N/A
2/28/20184,26063N/A-21N/A
11/30/20174,06876N/A55N/A
8/31/20173,84450N/A-523N/A
5/31/20173,53647N/A99N/A
2/28/20173,71850N/A266N/A
11/30/20163,87638N/A366N/A
8/31/20163,59662N/A587N/A
5/31/20164,81384N/A762N/A
2/29/20165,09288N/A786N/A
11/30/20155,46390N/A613N/A
8/31/20155,42463N/A313N/A
5/31/20156,414125N/A101N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CMC's forecast earnings growth (8.2% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: CMC's earnings (8.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CMC's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: CMC's revenue (7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CMC's revenue (7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CMC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.8%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 21:57
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/02/28
Annual Earnings2025/08/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Commercial Metals Company is covered by 24 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Katja JancicBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Tristan GresserBNP Paribas
Sathish KasinathanBofA Global Research