Weak Statutory Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Warrior Met Coal (NYSE:HCC)

Despite Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s (NYSE:HCC) recent earnings report having lackluster headline numbers, the market responded positively. While shareholders may be willing to overlook soft profit numbers, we believe that they should also be taking into account some other factors which may be cause for concern.

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An Unusual Tax Situation

We can see that Warrior Met Coal received a tax benefit of US$15m. This is of course a bit out of the ordinary, given it is more common for companies to be paying tax than receiving tax benefits! We're sure the company was pleased with its tax benefit. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth. While we think it's good that the company has booked a tax benefit, it does mean that there's every chance the statutory profit will come in a lot higher than it would be if the income was adjusted for one-off factors.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Warrior Met Coal's Profit Performance

Warrior Met Coal received a tax benefit in its last reported period, as we have mentioned already. Tax is usually an expense, not a benefit, so we don't think the reported profit number is a particularly good guide to the earning potential of the business. As a result, we think it may well be the case that Warrior Met Coal's underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. In further bad news, its earnings per share decreased in the last year. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Warrior Met Coal at this point in time. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Warrior Met Coal, and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Warrior Met Coal's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.