Alcoa (AA) Stock Overview
Engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 1/6 |
| Past Performance | 4/6 |
| Financial Health | 5/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
No risks detected for AA from our risk checks.
AA Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 70 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Alcoa Corporation Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$71.38 |
| 52 Week High | US$75.70 |
| 52 Week Low | US$25.83 |
| Beta | 1.51 |
| 1 Month Change | 4.16% |
| 3 Month Change | 18.00% |
| 1 Year Change | 154.29% |
| 3 Year Change | 111.87% |
| 5 Year Change | 79.93% |
| Change since IPO | 217.24% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • May 13
AA: Production Stability And Higher Margins Will Support Stronger Long Term Outlook
Analysts have raised Alcoa's fair value estimate from $58.00 to $92.00, citing updated assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple as the main factors supporting the higher price target. What's in the News Alcoa reported first quarter 2026 production results, with Bauxite at 9.1 mdmt compared with 9.5 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina at 2,355 kmt in line with the prior year, and Aluminum at 607 kmt compared with 564 kmt a year earlier (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Apr 29
AA: Higher Margin Outlook And Production Plans Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target for Alcoa to $73.87 from $72.48, reflecting updated expectations around potential revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa reported first quarter 2026 production results, with Bauxite output of 9.1 mdmt compared with 9.5 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina production of 2,355 kmt in line with the prior year, and Aluminum production of 607 kmt compared with 564 kmt a year ago (Key Developments).Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 13
AA: Production Stability And Higher Margins Will Support Stronger Long Term Outlook
Analysts have raised Alcoa's fair value estimate from $58.00 to $92.00, citing updated assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple as the main factors supporting the higher price target. What's in the News Alcoa reported first quarter 2026 production results, with Bauxite at 9.1 mdmt compared with 9.5 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina at 2,355 kmt in line with the prior year, and Aluminum at 607 kmt compared with 564 kmt a year earlier (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Apr 29
AA: Higher Margin Outlook And Production Plans Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target for Alcoa to $73.87 from $72.48, reflecting updated expectations around potential revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa reported first quarter 2026 production results, with Bauxite output of 9.1 mdmt compared with 9.5 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina production of 2,355 kmt in line with the prior year, and Aluminum production of 607 kmt compared with 564 kmt a year ago (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Apr 15
AA: Updated Output Plans And Margins Will Shape Measured Future Returns
Analysts have revised their price target for Alcoa to approximately $72, up from about $67, citing updated assumptions around fair value, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Alcoa reported fourth quarter 2025 production with Bauxite at 9.4 mdmt versus 9.3 mdmt a year earlier, Alumina at 2,481 kmt versus 2,390 kmt, and Aluminum at 604 kmt versus 571 kmt (Announcement of Operating Results).Seeking Alpha • Apr 08
Alcoa Can See Tailwinds Driven By Geopolitical Risk
Summary Alcoa Corporation is well positioned for margin expansion through eFY26, driven by global supply constraints, carbon taxes, and potential US tariff relief. AA benefits from the Middle East supply disruptions, CBAM in Europe, and a ramping San Ciprian facility, supporting stronger pricing and production tailwinds. Alcoa targets $82.61/share at 7.53x eFY28 EV/aEBITDA, reiterating a Buy rating amid elevated aluminum prices and improving balance sheet metrics. Management focuses on debt reduction, monetizing offline sites, and leveraging 86% renewable energy to mitigate energy risks and support long-term AA value. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Mar 31
AA: Higher Output And Trading Volumes Will Likely Still Fail To Justify Pricing
Analysts now place Alcoa's price target at about $46.37, compared with the prior $38.00. This reflects updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, discount rate, and future P/E levels.Narrative Update • Mar 17
AA: Production Plans And Margin Expectations Will Guide Balanced Future Returns
Analysts have adjusted their fair value estimate for Alcoa to $66.92 from $61.42, reflecting updated assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News Alcoa issued production guidance for 2026, targeting total Alumina segment production between 9.7 and 9.9 million metric tons, with shipments between 11.8 and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting the role of trading volumes and externally sourced alumina in meeting customer contracts (company guidance).Narrative Update • Mar 03
AA: Production Guidance And Margin Assumptions Will Shape Balanced Future Returns
Analysts have nudged their Alcoa price target slightly higher to $61.42 from $61.08, reflecting updated assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and a modestly higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa issued 2026 production guidance for its Alumina segment, with expected production between 9.7 million and 9.9 million metric tons and shipments between 11.8 million and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting the use of trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to meet customer contracts (Corporate guidance).Narrative Update • Feb 16
AA: Higher Margins And Production Will Still Likely Fail To Justify Pricing
Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from $33.00 to $38.00, citing updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth expectations, profit margin outlook, and a revised future P/E multiple. What's in the News Alcoa issued production guidance for 2025 and outlined expectations for 2026, with the Alumina segment projected to produce between 9.7 and 9.9 million metric tons in 2026, and shipments expected between 11.8 and 12.0 million metric tons, reflecting a mix of internal production, trading volumes, and externally sourced alumina to meet customer contracts (company guidance).Narrative Update • Feb 02
AA: Low Carbon Smelting And Margin Assumptions Will Shape Balanced Future Returns
Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from US$45.42 to US$61.08. They cite updates in their models that reflect revised assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples.Narrative Update • Jan 19
AA: Future Decarbonization Benefits Will Likely Fail To Justify Current Pricing
Analysts have lifted their price target on Alcoa from US$27.00 to US$33.00, pointing to updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and a lower future P/E as key drivers of the change. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball Corporation and Unilever announced the first use of ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology in consumer personal and home care packaging, using aluminum that eliminates direct smelting greenhouse gas emissions and generates oxygen instead of CO2 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Jan 05
AA: Carbon Free Smelting And Energy Moves Will Support Balanced Long Term Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa from approximately $42 to $58 per share, citing expectations for faster revenue growth, significantly higher profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple. Together, these factors support a meaningfully higher fair value estimate.Analysis Article • Dec 30
Alcoa Corporation's (NYSE:AA) Share Price Boosted 29% But Its Business Prospects Need A Lift Too
Despite an already strong run, Alcoa Corporation ( NYSE:AA ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 29% in the...Narrative Update • Dec 20
AA: Low Carbon Smelting Shift Will Likely Pressure Future Returns
Narrative Update on Alcoa Analysts have raised their price target on Alcoa by approximately 10 percent to around 45 dollars per share, citing expectations for modestly stronger revenue growth, materially improved profit margins, and a more attractive forward earnings multiple. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball and Unilever unveiled the first consumer packaging using ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology, combining low carbon primary aluminum with recycled content to create one of the lowest footprint aerosol cans on the market (company announcement).Narrative Update • Dec 06
AA: Low Carbon Initiatives And Portfolio Reshaping Will Define Future Performance
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Alcoa from approximately 39.54 dollars to 41.29 dollars, citing higher long term revenue growth expectations and a richer future earnings multiple, despite a lower projected profit margin and slightly higher discount rate. What's in the News Alcoa, Ball and Unilever unveiled the first consumer packaging using ELYSIS carbon free smelting technology in low carbon aerosol cans ahead of COP30, highlighting a major step toward decarbonized aluminum supply chains (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Nov 22
AA: Measured Shifts in Operations and Partnerships Will Shape Future Performance
Narrative Update on Alcoa: Analyst Price Target Adjustment Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Alcoa, revising the price target from $39.63 to $39.54 per share. This change reflects modest adjustments to outlooks on discount rate and growth assumptions.Narrative Update • Nov 05
AA: Future Investments and Facility Upgrades Will Drive Shareholder Value
Analysts have raised their price target for Alcoa slightly. The new target is $39.63, up from $39.21.Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analysts Raise Alcoa Price Target as New Partnerships and Plant Closure Drive Valuation Upward
Alcoa's analyst price target has increased from $36.64 to $39.21. This change reflects improved revenue growth and profit margin projections according to analysts.Narrative Update • Oct 08
Tariff Volatility And Recycled Materials Will Erode Primary Aluminum Margins
Analysts have raised their price target for Alcoa from $34.09 to $36.64. They cite improved forecast profit margins and lower expected future price-to-earnings ratios as key factors in their updated outlook.Narrative Update • Sep 24
Tariff Volatility And Recycled Materials Will Erode Primary Aluminum Margins
Despite a notable downgrade in revenue growth expectations, an improved net profit margin has offset this impact, resulting in a slight increase in Alcoa's analyst price target from $33.55 to $34.09. What's in the News Held Analyst/Investor Day event.
New Narrative • Apr 24
Australia Refinancing And San Ciprián Restart Will Support Stable Operations
Strategic refinancing and joint ventures are expected to enhance cash flow, reduce interest expenses, and stabilize revenue.Seeking Alpha • Apr 18
Alcoa's Q1 2025 Review: Tariff Hurts, But Game Isn't Over
Summary Alcoa's stock is down ~75% from its ATH. Tariff wars and economic uncertainty added fuel to the fire, but Q1 2025 results show strong net income and adjusted EBITDA growth. Despite a 3% QoQ revenue dip, net income more than doubled to $548 million, with adjusted net income beating Street estimates at $568 million. Alcoa refinanced $1 billion in debt, extending maturities and lowering interest expenses, aiming for an adjusted net debt range of $1-1.5 billion. Tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports will significantly impact Alcoa's costs, with a projected unfavorable impact of ~$90 million in Q2 2025. Because current tariffs hinder construction accessibility and will likely be revised (perhaps favorably for Alcoa), the present undervaluation of AA stock provides significant upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 30
Alcoa And The Aluminum Market: A Point Of Tension And Growth
Summary Alcoa's financial results have been volatile, with losses in 2022-2023 and profits in 2024 due to aluminum price recovery and strategic asset restructuring. The company focuses on high-quality assets, vertical integration, and technological advancements, aiming for efficiency and sustainability without aggressive expansion. Despite positive developments, Alcoa remains vulnerable to raw material price fluctuations and high energy costs, impacting its financial stability. Alcoa shares are fairly valued at $34; I recommend considering a purchase closer to $25, assigning a "Hold" rating due to limited upside. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 11
The 'Trump Factor' In Action: Why I'm Bullish On Alcoa
Summary Alcoa's vertical integration and strong aluminum demand outside China position it well amid tariffs, supply chain shifts, and economic growth trends. Tariffs could disrupt operations, but Alcoa's flexibility and improved balance sheet offer resilience and potential for significant upside. Valuation is attractive, with potential for over 30% stock price upside if economic growth accelerates and tariff risks are mitigated. Alcoa is highly cyclical and volatile, making it suitable for investors with patience and risk tolerance, despite trade policy and market risks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 30
Alcoa: The Tides Have Shifted To A Bullish Market
Summary Alcoa Corporation closed FY24 with a strong macroeconomic backdrop, realizing revenue and margin growth resulting from strong aluminum and alumina pricing and volumes shipped. AA stock is well-positioned to benefit from potential trade restrictions and tariffs, with a strong global presence and flexible operational routes. Risks include potential negative impacts from trade wars and economic recoveries in China and Europe, which may affect pricing and shipment routes. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 06
Alcoa: Learn How To Trade A Sentiment-Based Stock (Technical Analysis)
Summary Our methodology combines sentiment and non-linear analysis, focusing on human behavior patterns to trade stocks like Alcoa Corporation effectively. Traditional technical analysis is insufficient; our approach identifies high-probability setups with specific risk parameters, as illustrated here with AA stock. Recent analysis projected a pullback in Alcoa, presenting a bullish opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio. We provide reliable, actionable insights for traders and investors, emphasizing capital preservation and strategic risk management. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 31
Alcoa Corporation: Bearish Market, And Tariff Uncertainty Blur Positive Signals, Hold
Summary I rate Alcoa Corporation a hold due to operational headwinds impacting financial performance despite a strong balance sheet. Alcoa's financials show weak revenue growth and profitability, with high expenses and low net income compared to peers, signaling operational inefficiencies. The Dow Jones US Aluminum Index's downtrend and potential tariff hikes by President Trump suggest short-term weakness but a promising long-term outlook for AA. Alcoa's vast global presence, vertical integration, and potential benefits from proposed tariffs position it well to capitalize on projected market growth and aluminum demand. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 22
Alcoa's Financial Position Is Improving: Upgraded To A Buy Rating
Summary Alcoa's strong Q2'24 performance was driven by favorable aluminum prices and cost-cutting, leading to improved margins despite lower volumes. Positive macroeconomic factors, including tariffs on Chinese imports and expected aluminum demand growth, create favorable conditions for Alcoa. Alcoa's financial position strengthened by inventory reductions and strategic asset sales. I believe management will use the raised cash to deleverage the balance sheet and enhance shareholder value. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| AA | US Metals and Mining | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 14.2% | -5.5% | -0.8% |
| 1Y | 154.3% | 87.2% | 27.1% |
Return vs Industry: AA exceeded the US Metals and Mining industry which returned 87.2% over the past year.
Return vs Market: AA exceeded the US Market which returned 27.1% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| AA volatility | |
|---|---|
| AA Average Weekly Movement | 7.5% |
| Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement | 10.0% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.3% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: AA has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: AA's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1886 | 14,900 | Bill Oplinger | www.alcoa.com |
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses.
Alcoa Corporation Fundamentals Summary
| AA fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$17.49b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$1.03b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$12.66b |
18.3x
P/E Ratio1.5x
P/S RatioIs AA overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| AA income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$12.66b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$10.60b |
| Gross Profit | US$2.06b |
| Other Expenses | US$1.03b |
| Earnings | US$1.03b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 3.89 |
| Gross Margin | 16.25% |
| Net Profit Margin | 8.12% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 37.0% |
How did AA perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
0.6%
Current Dividend Yield10%
Payout RatioDoes AA pay a reliable dividends?
See AA dividend history and benchmarks| Alcoa dividend dates | |
|---|---|
| Ex Dividend Date | May 19 2026 |
| Dividend Pay Date | Jun 05 2026 |
| Days until Ex dividend | 4 days |
| Days until Dividend pay date | 13 days |
Does AA pay a reliable dividends?
See AA dividend history and benchmarksCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/22 22:02 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/22 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Alcoa Corporation is covered by 29 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Coleman | Argus Research Company |
| Dale Koenders | Barrenjoey Markets Pty Limited |
| Paretosh Misra | Berenberg |