Update shared on 22 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.21%Narrative Update on Alcoa: Analyst Price Target Adjustment
Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Alcoa, revising the price target from $39.63 to $39.54 per share. This change reflects modest adjustments to outlooks on discount rate and growth assumptions.
What's in the News
- Alcoa, Ball Corporation and Unilever have introduced the first consumer packaging using ELYSIS carbon-free aluminum smelting technology. This marks a significant step for sustainable product development and industry decarbonization. (Strategic Alliances)
- The company is actively exploring mergers and acquisitions, focusing solely on opportunities that align with its values and offer clear synergies for value creation. (Seeking Acquisitions/Investments)
- A permanent closure has been announced for Alcoa's Kwinana alumina refinery in Western Australia. This decision is due to factors such as facility age, costs, and market conditions. (Discontinued Operations/Downsizings)
- Alcoa is partnering with the U.S. and Australian governments to develop a gallium plant co-located at the Wagerup alumina refinery. The goal is to support critical mineral supply chains for technology and defense sectors. (Product-Related Announcements)
- Production results for Q3 2025 show increases in aluminum and alumina output, while bauxite production slightly declined compared to the previous year. (Announcement of Operating Results)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: Decreased marginally from $39.63 to $39.54 per share.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 8.48% to 8.65%.
- Revenue Growth Assumption: Rose modestly from 1.58% to 1.63%.
- Net Profit Margin: Declined minimally from 7.74% to 7.73%.
- Future P/E Ratio: Lowered slightly from 12.60x to 12.59x.
Disclaimer
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