Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Primerica, Inc. (NYSE:PRI) After Its First-Quarter Results

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Primerica, Inc. (NYSE:PRI), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$743m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 4.7% to hit US$3.93 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Primerica

Following the latest results, Primerica's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$3.02b in 2024. This would be a reasonable 2.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 5.2% to US$17.71. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.00b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$17.90 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$253, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Primerica, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$275 and the most bearish at US$235 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Primerica's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 3.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.5% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Primerica.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Primerica analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Primerica .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.