Do Its Financials Have Any Role To Play In Driving Lincoln National Corporation's (NYSE:LNC) Stock Up Recently?

Lincoln National (NYSE:LNC) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 14% over the last three months. We wonder if and what role the company's financials play in that price change as a company's long-term fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes. Specifically, we decided to study Lincoln National's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Lincoln National

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Lincoln National is:

40% = US$3.3b ÷ US$8.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.40.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Lincoln National's Earnings Growth And 40% ROE

First thing first, we like that Lincoln National has an impressive ROE. Additionally, the company's ROE is higher compared to the industry average of 15% which is quite remarkable. Given the circumstances, we can't help but wonder why Lincoln National saw little to no growth in the past five years. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that's limiting the company's growth. Such as, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

We then compared Lincoln National's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 12% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Lincoln National fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Lincoln National Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Lincoln National's low three-year median payout ratio of 10%, (meaning the company retains90% of profits) should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings and consequently, should see higher growth than it has reported.

In addition, Lincoln National has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 20% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected increase in the payout ratio explains the expected decline in the company's ROE to 10%, over the same period.

Conclusion

In total, it does look like Lincoln National has some positive aspects to its business. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. That being so, according to the latest industry analyst forecasts, the company's earnings are expected to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.