Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

As you might know, Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NASDAQ:NATR) recently reported its annual numbers. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$444m were what the analyst expected, Nature's Sunshine Products surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$1.42 per share, an impressive 67% above what was forecast. The analyst typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Nature's Sunshine Products

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from sole analyst covering Nature's Sunshine Products is for revenues of US$435.1m in 2022, implying a perceptible 2.0% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 26% to US$1.08 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analyst had been modelling revenues of US$467.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.19 in 2022. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

The analyst made no major changes to their price target of US$24.50, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Nature's Sunshine Products' valuation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.0% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2022. That is a notable change from historical growth of 4.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 9.2% per year. It's pretty clear that Nature's Sunshine Products' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analyst downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$24.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price target.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Nature's Sunshine Products going out as far as 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Nature's Sunshine Products you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.