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Marathon Petroleum NYSE:MPC Stock Report

Last Price

US$133.38

Market Cap

US$42.9b

7D

-8.4%

1Y

-11.6%

Updated

22 Dec, 2024

Data

Company Financials +

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

NYSE:MPC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$42.9b

MPC Stock Overview

Operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. More details

MPC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation6/6
Future Growth0/6
Past Performance2/6
Financial Health3/6
Dividends5/6

Rewards

Trading at 62.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Pays a reliable dividend of 2.73%

Trading at good value compared to peers and industry

Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 27.1%

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.5% per year for the next 3 years

Has a high level of debt

Profit margins (3.2%) are lower than last year (7.5%)


My Notes

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WA
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts

Operational Strength May Offset Uncertain Refining Margins In The Energy Sector

Key Takeaways Marathon Petroleum's reliance on increased refining margins for revenue growth may be unstable, especially if global economic uncertainty continues. Aggressive share buyback strategies and capital expenditure investments may not sustainably support EPS growth due to potential operational cash flow pressures.
View narrative
US$170.16
FV
21.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
-5.03%
Revenue growth p.a.
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6users have followed this narrative
10 days ago author updated this narrative

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Competitors

Valero Energy

NYSE:VLO

US$37.5b

Phillips 66

NYSE:PSX

US$45.6b

Sunoco

NYSE:SUN

US$6.9b

HF Sinclair

NYSE:DINO

US$6.4b

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for Marathon Petroleum
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$133.38
52 Week HighUS$221.11
52 Week LowUS$130.54
Beta1.39
1 Month Change-15.84%
3 Month Change-18.78%
1 Year Change-11.59%
3 Year Change111.58%
5 Year Change120.90%
Change since IPO584.00%

Recent News & Updates

Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Shares Lagging The Market But So Is The Business

Dec 13
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Shares Lagging The Market But So Is The Business

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Just Recorded A 46% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Nov 07
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Just Recorded A 46% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Marathon Petroleum: Shares Are Attractive Despite Muted Q3 Results

Nov 06

Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $0.91

Nov 03
Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $0.91

Recent updates

Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Shares Lagging The Market But So Is The Business

Dec 13
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Shares Lagging The Market But So Is The Business

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Just Recorded A 46% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Nov 07
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Just Recorded A 46% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Marathon Petroleum: Shares Are Attractive Despite Muted Q3 Results

Nov 06

Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $0.91

Nov 03
Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Is Increasing Its Dividend To $0.91

Framing Marathon Petroleum Financials With Unexpected Weak Spreads (Knees)

Oct 20

Is Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Using Too Much Debt?

Oct 19
Is Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Using Too Much Debt?

An Intrinsic Calculation For Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) Suggests It's 47% Undervalued

Oct 01
An Intrinsic Calculation For Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) Suggests It's 47% Undervalued

Marathon Petroleum: At An Inflection Point, Downgraded To Hold

Sep 26

Marathon Petroleum Corporation: A Solid Oil Refiner Despite Sector Weakness

Sep 16

Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Shares Lagging The Market But So Is The Business

Aug 31
Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Shares Lagging The Market But So Is The Business

Newsflash: Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Revenue Forecasts

Aug 07
Newsflash: Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Revenue Forecasts

Marathon Petroleum: Recent Pullback Creates Opportunity Given Share Repurchases (Upgrade)

Jul 10

Is There An Opportunity With Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) 22% Undervaluation?

Jun 21
Is There An Opportunity With Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) 22% Undervaluation?

These 4 Measures Indicate That Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

May 22
These 4 Measures Indicate That Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Is Using Debt Reasonably Well

Marathon Petroleum: The Buyback King Of The Energy Sector Continues To Shine

May 02

Analysts Are Updating Their Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results

May 02
Analysts Are Updating Their Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results

Marathon Petroleum: Still Has Gas In The Tank After 100% Returns

Apr 08

Marathon: Share Repurchases Continue To Generate Value (Downgrade)

Mar 15

22% Return Per Year Since 2012 - How Unstoppable Is Marathon Petroleum?

Feb 20

Does Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Feb 19
Does Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Calculating The Fair Value Of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC)

Jan 21
Calculating The Fair Value Of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC)

Marathon Petroleum's Comfortable Market Position Suggests A Buy On Weakness

Jan 19

Earnings Working Against Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Share Price

Jan 03
Earnings Working Against Marathon Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:MPC) Share Price

Marathon Petroleum Still A Buy For The Long Haul

Jan 02

Marathon Petroleum: In It For The Long Run

Dec 19

Marathon Petroleum: Sum Of The Parts Upside Remains

Nov 25

Marathon Petroleum Is A Buyback Monster

Nov 09

Marathon Petroleum: Gasoline Crack Spread Plunges, 2024 Earnings Outlook In Question

Oct 19

Marathon Petroleum: Oil Price Shock Spells Trouble For Refining Margins (Rating Downgrade)

Oct 10

Marathon Petroleum: An Impressive Ascension, But It May Not Last Forever

Sep 19

Marathon Petroleum: Elevated Crack Spreads And Share Repurchases Make This Attractive

Sep 06

Marathon Petroleum: Investing In The Fossil Fuel 'Supernova'

Aug 09

Marathon Petroleum Q2 Earnings: Why This Stock Is An Attractive Investment

Aug 01

Marathon Petroleum: Potential Positive Returns With Tight Markets

Jul 06

What To Make Of Marathon Petroleum's Dividend

Jun 21

The Dividend Investor's Oil Playbook - Part 2

Jun 01

Shareholder Returns

MPCUS Oil and GasUS Market
7D-8.4%-5.1%-2.4%
1Y-11.6%2.7%23.4%

Return vs Industry: MPC underperformed the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 2.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MPC underperformed the US Market which returned 23.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MPC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MPC volatility
MPC Average Weekly Movement4.5%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement5.4%
Market Average Movement6.3%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.1%

Stable Share Price: MPC has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.

Volatility Over Time: MPC's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
188718,200Maryann Mannenwww.marathonpetroleum.com

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. The company operates through Refining & Marketing, and Midstream segments. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products, including renewable diesel, through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Fundamentals Summary

How do Marathon Petroleum's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MPC fundamental statistics
Market capUS$42.87b
Earnings (TTM)US$4.52b
Revenue (TTM)US$142.67b

9.5x

P/E Ratio

0.3x

P/S Ratio

Is MPC overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
MPC income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$142.67b
Cost of RevenueUS$128.26b
Gross ProfitUS$14.41b
Other ExpensesUS$9.89b
EarningsUS$4.52b

Last Reported Earnings

Sep 30, 2024

Next Earnings Date

Feb 04, 2025

Earnings per share (EPS)14.07
Gross Margin10.10%
Net Profit Margin3.17%
Debt/Equity Ratio107.8%

How did MPC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.7%

Current Dividend Yield

26%

Payout Ratio

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 02:28
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is covered by 36 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Yim ChengBarclays
Theresa ChenBarclays
Phillip JungwirthBMO Capital Markets Equity Research