Marathon Petroleum Corporation

NYSE:MPC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$51.0b

Marathon Petroleum Valuation

Is MPC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MPC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MPC ($159.38) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($363)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MPC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MPC?

Key metric: As MPC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MPC. This is calculated by dividing MPC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MPC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.3x
EarningsUS$4.52b
Market CapUS$51.04b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MPC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MPC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.9x
VLO Valero Energy
12.1x-1.7%US$45.0b
PSX Phillips 66
16.2x15.1%US$54.1b
DINO HF Sinclair
24.4x23.6%US$8.0b
SUN Sunoco
14.9x20.7%US$7.3b
MPC Marathon Petroleum
11.3x-12.0%US$51.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MPC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the peer average (16.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MPC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
MPC 11.3xIndustry Avg. 11.7xNo. of Companies15PE0612182430+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MPC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MPC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MPC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.3x
Fair PE Ratio10.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MPC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MPC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$159.38
US$170.27
+6.8%
9.4%US$200.00US$142.00n/a19
Nov ’25US$143.13
US$172.80
+20.7%
10.1%US$200.00US$142.00n/a19
Oct ’25US$165.82
US$177.28
+6.9%
11.0%US$200.00US$142.00n/a18
Sep ’25US$177.12
US$191.34
+8.0%
9.1%US$216.05US$142.00n/a18
Aug ’25US$173.18
US$192.39
+11.1%
10.8%US$232.00US$142.00n/a18
Jul ’25US$174.79
US$202.89
+16.1%
12.0%US$244.00US$142.00n/a17
Jun ’25US$176.61
US$207.84
+17.7%
10.3%US$244.00US$142.00n/a18
May ’25US$178.97
US$213.53
+19.3%
11.2%US$249.00US$142.00n/a17
Apr ’25US$204.41
US$186.94
-8.5%
12.4%US$227.00US$142.00n/a17
Mar ’25US$173.21
US$171.83
-0.8%
7.2%US$195.00US$142.00n/a18
Feb ’25US$167.53
US$169.06
+0.9%
9.3%US$186.00US$118.00n/a18
Jan ’25US$148.36
US$163.29
+10.1%
10.0%US$191.00US$118.00n/a17
Dec ’24US$151.42
US$161.47
+6.6%
9.9%US$191.00US$118.00n/a17
Nov ’24US$155.21
US$160.82
+3.6%
8.9%US$191.00US$126.00US$143.1317
Oct ’24US$151.34
US$158.71
+4.9%
8.6%US$179.00US$126.00US$165.8217
Sep ’24US$145.96
US$153.24
+5.0%
7.4%US$167.00US$126.00US$177.1217
Aug ’24US$134.94
US$144.28
+6.9%
8.7%US$165.00US$110.00US$173.1818
Jul ’24US$116.60
US$141.83
+21.6%
9.7%US$165.00US$110.00US$174.7918
Jun ’24US$105.87
US$142.94
+35.0%
10.2%US$165.00US$110.00US$176.6118
May ’24US$122.46
US$149.72
+22.3%
6.8%US$165.00US$123.00US$178.9718
Apr ’24US$134.83
US$150.33
+11.5%
7.6%US$165.00US$123.00US$204.4118
Mar ’24US$129.19
US$139.88
+8.3%
8.4%US$165.00US$115.00US$173.2117
Feb ’24US$122.97
US$139.88
+13.8%
8.4%US$165.00US$115.00US$167.5317
Jan ’24US$116.39
US$131.53
+13.0%
6.5%US$150.00US$115.00US$148.3617
Dec ’23US$120.23
US$132.53
+10.2%
7.4%US$153.00US$115.00US$151.4217
Nov ’23US$119.20
US$123.29
+3.4%
10.4%US$150.00US$93.00US$155.2117

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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