Marathon Petroleum Corporation

NYSE:MPC Stock Report

Mkt Cap: US$53.7b

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Marathon Petroleum Valuation

Is MPC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MPC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MPC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA3.4x
PEG Ratio-0.09x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MPC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MPC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average3.9x
VLO Valero Energy
4.4x-45.5%US$50.8b
PSX Phillips 66
4.2x-27.9%US$46.0b
DINO HF Sinclair
4.7x-28.1%US$10.7b
PBF PBF Energy
2.3x-46.3%US$5.6b
MPC Marathon Petroleum
3.7x-40.8%US$53.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MPC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.7x) compared to the peer average (3.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MPC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-10.7%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MPC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.7x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (6.6x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MPC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MPC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio3.7x
Fair PE Ratio5.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MPC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.3x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MPC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MPC ($118.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($129.61)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MPC is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MPC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$118.20
US$139.88
+18.3%
8.4%US$165.00US$115.00n/a17
Jan ’24US$116.39
US$131.53
+13.0%
6.5%US$150.00US$115.00n/a17
Dec ’23US$120.23
US$132.53
+10.2%
7.4%US$153.00US$115.00n/a17
Nov ’23US$119.20
US$123.29
+3.4%
10.4%US$150.00US$93.00n/a17
Oct ’23US$99.33
US$120.00
+20.8%
10.0%US$136.00US$93.00n/a16
Sep ’23US$96.76
US$117.63
+21.6%
9.2%US$135.00US$93.00n/a16
Aug ’23US$90.32
US$115.29
+27.7%
10.9%US$130.00US$87.00n/a17
Jul ’23US$84.48
US$115.47
+36.7%
12.4%US$135.00US$87.00n/a17
Jun ’23US$103.91
US$108.31
+4.2%
10.1%US$125.00US$87.00n/a16
May ’23US$87.26
US$98.65
+13.0%
9.0%US$115.00US$87.00n/a17
Apr ’23US$84.81
US$87.71
+3.4%
10.4%US$113.00US$70.00n/a17
Mar ’23US$75.01
US$85.06
+13.4%
8.3%US$94.00US$70.00n/a18
Feb ’23US$74.02
US$79.94
+8.0%
7.1%US$88.00US$68.00US$122.9718
Jan ’23US$63.99
US$74.28
+16.1%
7.5%US$87.00US$67.00US$116.3918
Dec ’22US$60.91
US$74.33
+22.0%
8.0%US$87.00US$65.00US$120.2318
Nov ’22US$67.26
US$71.94
+7.0%
7.5%US$85.00US$61.00US$119.2017
Oct ’22US$63.56
US$69.71
+9.7%
7.3%US$78.00US$56.00US$99.3317
Sep ’22US$57.25
US$69.50
+21.4%
8.3%US$83.00US$56.00US$96.7616
Aug ’22US$55.22
US$69.63
+26.1%
9.8%US$83.00US$56.00US$90.3216
Jul ’22US$61.27
US$71.19
+16.2%
9.5%US$83.00US$56.00US$84.4816
Jun ’22US$62.50
US$68.87
+10.2%
10.2%US$83.00US$56.00US$103.9115
May ’22US$55.65
US$63.73
+14.5%
11.4%US$83.00US$53.00US$87.2615
Apr ’22US$55.80
US$60.79
+8.9%
15.1%US$83.00US$46.00US$84.8114
Mar ’22US$56.10
US$57.06
+1.7%
13.9%US$70.00US$46.00US$75.0116
Feb ’22US$43.45
US$51.25
+18.0%
12.7%US$66.00US$40.00US$74.0216

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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