Marathon Petroleum Corporation

NYSE:MPC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$42.9b

Marathon Petroleum Valuation

Is MPC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MPC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MPC ($133.38) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($355.18)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MPC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MPC?

Key metric: As MPC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MPC. This is calculated by dividing MPC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MPC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.5x
EarningsUS$4.52b
Market CapUS$42.87b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MPC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MPC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.4x
VLO Valero Energy
10.2x-1.1%US$37.5b
PSX Phillips 66
13.6x15.3%US$45.6b
SUN Sunoco
14.3x22.2%US$6.9b
DINO HF Sinclair
19.5x26.9%US$6.4b
MPC Marathon Petroleum
9.5x-4.5%US$42.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MPC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the peer average (14.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MPC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
MPC 9.5xIndustry Avg. 10.9xNo. of Companies16PE0612182430+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MPC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (10.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MPC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MPC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.5x
Fair PE Ratio11.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MPC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MPC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$133.38
US$169.53
+27.1%
9.1%US$195.00US$141.00n/a19
Dec ’25US$156.15
US$170.01
+8.9%
9.1%US$195.00US$142.00n/a19
Nov ’25US$143.13
US$172.80
+20.7%
10.1%US$200.00US$142.00n/a19
Oct ’25US$165.82
US$177.28
+6.9%
11.0%US$200.00US$142.00n/a18
Sep ’25US$177.12
US$191.34
+8.0%
9.1%US$216.05US$142.00n/a18
Aug ’25US$173.18
US$192.39
+11.1%
10.8%US$232.00US$142.00n/a18
Jul ’25US$174.79
US$202.89
+16.1%
12.0%US$244.00US$142.00n/a17
Jun ’25US$176.61
US$207.84
+17.7%
10.3%US$244.00US$142.00n/a18
May ’25US$178.97
US$213.53
+19.3%
11.2%US$249.00US$142.00n/a17
Apr ’25US$204.41
US$186.94
-8.5%
12.4%US$227.00US$142.00n/a17
Mar ’25US$173.21
US$171.83
-0.8%
7.2%US$195.00US$142.00n/a18
Feb ’25US$167.53
US$169.06
+0.9%
9.3%US$186.00US$118.00n/a18
Jan ’25US$148.36
US$163.29
+10.1%
10.0%US$191.00US$118.00n/a17
Dec ’24US$151.42
US$161.47
+6.6%
9.9%US$191.00US$118.00US$156.1517
Nov ’24US$155.21
US$160.82
+3.6%
8.9%US$191.00US$126.00US$143.1317
Oct ’24US$151.34
US$158.71
+4.9%
8.6%US$179.00US$126.00US$165.8217
Sep ’24US$145.96
US$153.24
+5.0%
7.4%US$167.00US$126.00US$177.1217
Aug ’24US$134.94
US$144.28
+6.9%
8.7%US$165.00US$110.00US$173.1818
Jul ’24US$116.60
US$141.83
+21.6%
9.7%US$165.00US$110.00US$174.7918
Jun ’24US$105.87
US$142.94
+35.0%
10.2%US$165.00US$110.00US$176.6118
May ’24US$122.46
US$149.72
+22.3%
6.8%US$165.00US$123.00US$178.9718
Apr ’24US$134.83
US$150.33
+11.5%
7.6%US$165.00US$123.00US$204.4118
Mar ’24US$129.19
US$139.88
+8.3%
8.4%US$165.00US$115.00US$173.2117
Feb ’24US$122.97
US$139.88
+13.8%
8.4%US$165.00US$115.00US$167.5317
Jan ’24US$116.39
US$131.53
+13.0%
6.5%US$150.00US$115.00US$148.3617
Dec ’23US$120.23
US$132.53
+10.2%
7.4%US$153.00US$115.00US$151.4217

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 02:28
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is covered by 36 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Yim ChengBarclays
Theresa ChenBarclays
Phillip JungwirthBMO Capital Markets Equity Research