Valero Energy Corporation

NYSE:VLO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$37.5b

Valero Energy Valuation

Is VLO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VLO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VLO ($118.59) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($436.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VLO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VLO?

Key metric: As VLO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for VLO. This is calculated by dividing VLO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is VLO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.2x
EarningsUS$3.68b
Market CapUS$37.54b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VLO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for VLO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.2x
MPC Marathon Petroleum
9.5x-4.5%US$42.3b
PSX Phillips 66
13.6x15.3%US$45.6b
SUN Sunoco
14.3x22.2%US$6.9b
DINO HF Sinclair
19.5x26.9%US$6.3b
VLO Valero Energy
10.2x-1.1%US$37.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VLO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x) compared to the peer average (14.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VLO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
VLO 10.2xIndustry Avg. 10.9xNo. of Companies16PE0612182430+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VLO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (10.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VLO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VLO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.2x
Fair PE Ratio12.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: VLO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VLO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$118.59
US$149.39
+26.0%
10.6%US$176.00US$123.00n/a19
Dec ’25US$139.08
US$150.48
+8.2%
11.2%US$176.00US$123.00n/a19
Nov ’25US$128.22
US$151.27
+18.0%
11.2%US$176.00US$123.00n/a19
Oct ’25US$137.47
US$157.46
+14.5%
12.8%US$192.00US$123.00n/a18
Sep ’25US$146.73
US$171.12
+16.6%
9.1%US$192.00US$128.00n/a18
Aug ’25US$156.45
US$171.23
+9.4%
9.1%US$192.00US$128.00n/a18
Jul ’25US$157.98
US$174.54
+10.5%
9.6%US$197.00US$128.00n/a17
Jun ’25US$157.14
US$181.23
+15.3%
9.6%US$210.00US$128.00n/a18
May ’25US$155.66
US$180.56
+16.0%
10.8%US$210.00US$128.00n/a18
Apr ’25US$172.64
US$161.48
-6.5%
10.3%US$197.00US$128.00n/a20
Mar ’25US$143.28
US$150.40
+5.0%
9.2%US$178.00US$128.00n/a21
Feb ’25US$138.29
US$149.80
+8.3%
8.7%US$177.00US$126.00n/a21
Jan ’25US$130.00
US$149.55
+15.0%
10.3%US$176.00US$126.00n/a20
Dec ’24US$126.38
US$149.60
+18.4%
9.7%US$171.00US$126.00US$139.0820
Nov ’24US$127.73
US$149.27
+16.9%
9.3%US$171.00US$130.00US$128.2220
Oct ’24US$141.71
US$150.57
+6.3%
9.1%US$176.00US$128.00US$137.4720
Sep ’24US$133.58
US$146.99
+10.0%
8.5%US$171.00US$128.00US$146.7319
Aug ’24US$128.77
US$143.22
+11.2%
10.1%US$171.00US$113.00US$156.4520
Jul ’24US$117.30
US$142.44
+21.4%
11.0%US$172.00US$113.00US$157.9819
Jun ’24US$105.93
US$144.02
+36.0%
11.6%US$172.00US$113.00US$157.1419
May ’24US$115.41
US$152.74
+32.3%
11.2%US$188.00US$124.00US$155.6619
Apr ’24US$139.60
US$159.44
+14.2%
10.0%US$188.00US$124.00US$172.6418
Mar ’24US$139.29
US$154.72
+11.1%
9.5%US$174.00US$117.00US$143.2818
Feb ’24US$136.23
US$155.33
+14.0%
9.6%US$174.00US$117.00US$138.2918
Jan ’24US$126.86
US$140.67
+10.9%
10.1%US$165.00US$111.00US$130.0018
Dec ’23US$132.03
US$143.41
+8.6%
10.9%US$177.00US$111.00US$126.3817

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 01:41
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Valero Energy Corporation is covered by 45 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
William SeleskyArgus Research Company
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Yim ChengBarclays