Valero Energy Corporation

NYSE:VLO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$45.0b

Valero Energy Valuation

Is VLO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VLO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VLO ($141.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($235.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VLO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VLO?

Key metric: As VLO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for VLO. This is calculated by dividing VLO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is VLO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.1x
EarningsUS$3.68b
Market CapUS$44.96b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VLO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for VLO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.7x
MPC Marathon Petroleum
11.3x-12.0%US$51.0b
PSX Phillips 66
16.2x15.1%US$54.1b
DINO HF Sinclair
24.4x23.6%US$8.0b
SUN Sunoco
14.9x20.7%US$7.3b
VLO Valero Energy
12.1x-1.7%US$45.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VLO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x) compared to the peer average (16.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VLO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
VLO 12.1xIndustry Avg. 11.7xNo. of Companies15PE0612182430+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VLO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VLO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VLO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.1x
Fair PE Ratio12.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: VLO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VLO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$141.20
US$150.59
+6.7%
11.3%US$176.00US$123.00n/a19
Nov ’25US$128.22
US$151.27
+18.0%
11.2%US$176.00US$123.00n/a19
Oct ’25US$137.47
US$157.46
+14.5%
12.8%US$192.00US$123.00n/a18
Sep ’25US$146.73
US$171.12
+16.6%
9.1%US$192.00US$128.00n/a18
Aug ’25US$156.45
US$171.23
+9.4%
9.1%US$192.00US$128.00n/a18
Jul ’25US$157.98
US$174.54
+10.5%
9.6%US$197.00US$128.00n/a17
Jun ’25US$157.14
US$181.23
+15.3%
9.6%US$210.00US$128.00n/a18
May ’25US$155.66
US$180.56
+16.0%
10.8%US$210.00US$128.00n/a18
Apr ’25US$172.64
US$161.48
-6.5%
10.3%US$197.00US$128.00n/a20
Mar ’25US$143.28
US$150.40
+5.0%
9.2%US$178.00US$128.00n/a21
Feb ’25US$138.29
US$149.80
+8.3%
8.7%US$177.00US$126.00n/a21
Jan ’25US$130.00
US$149.55
+15.0%
10.3%US$176.00US$126.00n/a20
Dec ’24US$126.38
US$149.60
+18.4%
9.7%US$171.00US$126.00n/a20
Nov ’24US$127.73
US$149.27
+16.9%
9.3%US$171.00US$130.00US$128.2220
Oct ’24US$141.71
US$150.57
+6.3%
9.1%US$176.00US$128.00US$137.4720
Sep ’24US$133.58
US$146.99
+10.0%
8.5%US$171.00US$128.00US$146.7319
Aug ’24US$128.77
US$143.22
+11.2%
10.1%US$171.00US$113.00US$156.4520
Jul ’24US$117.30
US$142.44
+21.4%
11.0%US$172.00US$113.00US$157.9819
Jun ’24US$105.93
US$144.02
+36.0%
11.6%US$172.00US$113.00US$157.1419
May ’24US$115.41
US$152.74
+32.3%
11.2%US$188.00US$124.00US$155.6619
Apr ’24US$139.60
US$159.44
+14.2%
10.0%US$188.00US$124.00US$172.6418
Mar ’24US$139.29
US$154.72
+11.1%
9.5%US$174.00US$117.00US$143.2818
Feb ’24US$136.23
US$155.33
+14.0%
9.6%US$174.00US$117.00US$138.2918
Jan ’24US$126.86
US$140.67
+10.9%
10.1%US$165.00US$111.00US$130.0018
Dec ’23US$132.03
US$143.41
+8.6%
10.9%US$177.00US$111.00US$126.3817
Nov ’23US$130.00
US$137.68
+5.9%
10.0%US$160.00US$109.00US$127.7319

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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