Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Overview
Manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 0/6 |
| Past Performance | 5/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 5/6 |
VLO Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 78 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
US$185.51
FV
30.0% overvalued intrinsic discount9.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
178
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Valero Energy Corporation Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$241.09 |
| 52 Week High | US$263.75 |
| 52 Week Low | US$125.10 |
| Beta | 0.57 |
| 1 Month Change | 3.30% |
| 3 Month Change | 20.09% |
| 1 Year Change | 87.30% |
| 3 Year Change | 113.01% |
| 5 Year Change | 198.42% |
| Change since IPO | 8,666.91% |
Recent News & Updates
Narrative Update • May 20
VLO: Higher Oil Assumptions And Mixed Ratings Will Shape But Limit Future Upside
Analyst fair value estimates for Valero Energy have shifted up by about $9 to $256, with the change framed around a higher assumed future P/E of roughly 15x, as well as recent rounds of price target increases across several firms, offset in part by a few new cautious ratings. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Valero Energy has been active, with several firms adjusting price targets and a few shifting ratings.Seeking Alpha • May 04
Valero Energy: A Repeat Of The Mega-Cycle From 2022
Summary Valero Energy is structurally advantaged due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, enabling superior access to crude and margin expansion. VLO's industry-leading cost structure and robust Gulf Coast crude sourcing position it as a top beneficiary in the current refining bull cycle. Management and industry commentary suggest elevated refining margins and tight product markets will persist through 2026, supporting a durable investment case. I rate VLO a buy, citing its strengthened balance sheet, aggressive capital returns, and sustained competitive advantages amid global supply disruptions. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRecent updates
Narrative Update • May 20
VLO: Higher Oil Assumptions And Mixed Ratings Will Shape But Limit Future Upside
Analyst fair value estimates for Valero Energy have shifted up by about $9 to $256, with the change framed around a higher assumed future P/E of roughly 15x, as well as recent rounds of price target increases across several firms, offset in part by a few new cautious ratings. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Valero Energy has been active, with several firms adjusting price targets and a few shifting ratings.Seeking Alpha • May 04
Valero Energy: A Repeat Of The Mega-Cycle From 2022
Summary Valero Energy is structurally advantaged due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, enabling superior access to crude and margin expansion. VLO's industry-leading cost structure and robust Gulf Coast crude sourcing position it as a top beneficiary in the current refining bull cycle. Management and industry commentary suggest elevated refining margins and tight product markets will persist through 2026, supporting a durable investment case. I rate VLO a buy, citing its strengthened balance sheet, aggressive capital returns, and sustained competitive advantages amid global supply disruptions. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Apr 26
VLO: Higher Oil Assumptions And Refining Margins Will Shape But Limit Future Upside
The updated analyst price target for Valero Energy edges higher by about $1 to roughly $247 per share. Analysts point to refined assumptions around fair value, a steadier discount rate, and modest tweaks to revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E expectations following a cluster of recent target hikes from major firms, alongside one downgrade and a list removal.Narrative Update • Apr 11
VLO: Higher Oil Assumptions And Refining Margins Will Support But Cap Future Multiple
Valero Energy's updated analyst price target has shifted to $246.67 from $218.39 as analysts factor in higher modeled revenue growth, a stronger profit margin profile, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Valero Energy has centered on higher price targets, changes in oil price assumptions, and shifting views on the risk profile, all of which feed into how analysts are thinking about valuation, execution, and potential growth.
New Narrative • Apr 01
Record Throughput And Policy Uncertainty Will Pressure Long Term Refining Margins
Catalysts About Valero Energy Valero Energy operates refineries and produces renewable diesel and ethanol, selling transportation fuels and related products. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 27
VLO: Bearish Crude Outlook Will Limit Future Multiple Despite Stronger Refining Margins
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for Valero Energy to $218.39 from $202.72, linking the higher price target range across firms to updated oil price assumptions, refined product supply and demand expectations, and adjustments to forward P/E and margin forecasts. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Valero Energy points to a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms revising price targets and updating sector views based on oil price assumptions, geopolitical risks, and refining market expectations.
New Narrative • Mar 17
Heavy Crude Optionality And Renewable Diesel Platform Will Support Stronger Margins Ahead
Catalysts About Valero Energy Valero Energy operates a large, complex refining, renewable diesel and ethanol platform that converts crude oil and agricultural feedstocks into transportation fuels and related products. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 12
VLO: Bearish Crude Outlook Will Constrain Future Multiple Despite Refining Support
Analysts have nudged their average price target for Valero higher, with our fair value estimate moving from $198.22 to $202.72 as they factor in updated views on future revenue growth and profitability, as well as a slightly lower assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Valero reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting their price targets and at least one major bank removing the stock from a high conviction list.Narrative Update • Feb 26
VLO: Refining Setup And Dividend Policy Will Offset Bearish Crude Outlook
Analysts have raised their average price targets for Valero Energy by a mid to high double digit dollar amount, with updated P/E assumptions and views on refining supply demand and crude differentials helping explain why several firms recently moved their targets higher, even as one trimmed its forecast to $217. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Valero Energy has centered on refining supply demand, crude differentials and updated P/E frameworks, with several firms adjusting their price targets by single digit to high double digit dollar amounts.Narrative Update • Feb 10
VLO: Refining Margins And Dividend Policy Will Balance Bearish Crude Outlook
Analysts have raised their blended price target for Valero Energy by about US$8 to reflect updated views on modestly higher revenue growth, slightly lower profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple, supported by a series of recent target increases across major research firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates present a mixed picture, with several firms lifting their price targets by double digit dollar amounts, while at least one has trimmed its target as it reassesses sector headwinds going into 2026.Narrative Update • Jan 26
VLO: Complex Refining Margins And Dividend Support Will Offset Bearish Crude Sentiment
Narrative Update on Valero Energy The updated analyst price target for Valero Energy has moved higher by about US$3 to roughly US$190, as analysts point to tighter refining supply and demand, crude differential tailwinds, and the company's ability to run cheaper feedstocks into higher value products, even as views on crude remain cautious. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Valero Energy reflects a generally constructive tone, with price targets being adjusted while views on crude and sector performance remain cautious.Analysis Article • Jan 26
Valero Energy's (NYSE:VLO) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's
Valero Energy Corporation's ( NYSE:VLO ) dividend will be increasing from last year's payment of the same period to...Narrative Update • Jan 12
VLO: Complex Refining Margins And Capital Returns Will Offset Bearish Crude Sentiment
Analysts have inched their price expectations for Valero higher, with the fair value estimate moving from about $185.78 to $187.11. This reflects updated views that factor in recent price target changes, a slightly higher future P/E assumption, and ongoing support from refining market conditions highlighted in recent research.Narrative Update • Dec 15
VLO: Capital Returns And Complex Refining Margins Will Shape Future Performance
Analysts have made a slight upward adjustment to their price target on Valero Energy to about $186 per share, citing the company’s complex refining capabilities, improving operating margins, and stronger than expected recent earnings performance as key drivers of the improved outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Valero Energy reflects a generally constructive view on the stock, with multiple firms boosting price targets and initiating coverage at favorable ratings.Narrative Update • Dec 01
VLO: Ongoing Capital Returns And Margin Resilience Will Shape Near-Term Performance
Valero Energy's analyst price target has increased from $182.22 to $185.83 per share, as analysts highlight stronger operating performance, robust refinery margins, and ongoing optimism in earnings and capital returns. Analyst Commentary Analysts remain largely constructive on Valero Energy, emphasizing multiple factors supporting a positive outlook.Narrative Update • Nov 17
VLO: Future Performance Will Reflect Industry Cyclicality And Robust Capital Return
Valero Energy's analyst price target has increased modestly from $180.78 to $182.22 per share. Analysts cite the company's strong earnings momentum, robust operating margins, and a constructive outlook for high-quality product demand as key drivers of the upward revision.Narrative Update • Nov 03
VLO: Dividend Growth And Refining Margins Will Drive Performance Into 2026
Valero Energy's analyst price target has risen from $175.63 to $180.78. This increase reflects analysts' optimism following a strong earnings report and continued favorable outlooks for refining margins and capital returns.Narrative Update • Oct 20
St Charles SEC Unit Will Yield High-Value Products
Valero Energy's analyst price target has increased from $169 to approximately $175.63 per share, as analysts note improved sector sentiment and resilient refining margins are supporting upward valuation adjustments. Analyst Commentary Recent research reports reflect a range of perspectives about Valero Energy's near-term performance and long-term prospects.Narrative Update • Oct 06
St Charles SEC Unit Will Yield High-Value Products
Valero Energy's analyst price target has increased from $166.06 to $169.00 per share, as analysts cite persistent market tightness and resilient refining margins as factors supporting a more positive outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates reveal a dynamic range of perspectives among analysts regarding Valero Energy’s valuation and growth outlook.Narrative Update • Sep 21
St Charles SEC Unit Will Yield High-Value Products
Valero Energy’s consensus price target has been raised to $166.06 as analysts cite persistent refining margin strength, resilient product markets, and strong recent earnings, despite some valuation concerns following recent outperformance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight persistent global refining margin strength, with product markets remaining tight and defying expectations of a decline.Narrative Update • Sep 06
St Charles SEC Unit Will Yield High-Value Products
Analysts have raised Valero Energy’s price target slightly to $157.94, reflecting increased confidence in structurally higher refining margins and Valero’s competitive advantage in renewables, although some remain cautious on valuation after recent outperformance. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight a structural upcycle in refining, positioning Valero to benefit from favorable long-term industry trends.Analysis Article • Jun 02
We Think Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's...Seeking Alpha • Mar 28
Valero's Exposure To Renewable Energy And More
Summary Valero Energy Corporation is recognized for its low-cost operations and strong safety record, contributing to its financial success and investor confidence. Despite weak margins in 2024 in both renewables and older refining, the trend is turning positive in early 2025 and is likely to continue. The renewable diesel market faces uncertainty due to regulatory changes, but long-term demand for hydrocarbon-based fuels is expected to grow, supported by OPEC+ forecasts. The SAF market presents opportunities with infrastructure challenges; Valero's DGD facilities are well-positioned to capitalize on this growing sector. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 13
Valero Energy Flexes With Energy Policy Changes (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Valero Energy Corporation is a top US independent oil refiner, producing essential fuels like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and ethanol, with significant barriers to entry for competitors. I am upranking Valero, a $39.4 billion company, to a buy due to its strong position in traditional and renewable fuel markets, a 3.6% dividend, and relatively low stock price. Although tariffs are a big unknown, Valero may benefit from lower crude prices and a much friendlier-to-all US national energy policy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 29
Valero: Low Crack Spreads Offset Shareholder-Friendly Moves
Summary I maintain a hold rating on Valero Energy due to fair valuation and mixed chart indicators ahead of its Q4 earnings report. Valero's Q3 results showed strong revenue but declining refining and renewable diesel segment profits, with shares down 1.2% post-report. Key risks include declining US crack spreads, regulatory changes, and natural disasters, though Valero's free cash flow yield remains impressive. Valero's stock is in a downtrend, trading below its 200-day moving average, with support near $110 and resistance between $144-$146. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 18
Valero Energy's Third Quarter Highlights 2 Futures: Conventional And Renewable Energies
Summary Valero Energy reported muted Q3 2024 results, with crack spread collapsing in September. The company remains committed to shareholder returns, achieving an 80% payout ratio year-to-date. Valero's strategic growth projects, including the Diamond Green Diesel SAF project, are on track, positioning the company well for future better market conditions. Crack spreads and renewable credits seem to be bottoming out, offering a lucrative investment going forward. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 08
The Valero Downtrend Post Q3 Earnings Presents An Opportunity
Summary Valero Energy Corporation's share price dropped 25% since early 2024 highs, but it continues to generate substantial cash flow, making it a valuable investment. Quarterly results showed $1.14 per share, a YoY decline due to weaker refining margins, yet the company maintains a 3.14% dividend. Refining margins in 2024 are weaker compared to 2023, but Valero's renewable diesel and ethanol segments help stabilize overall earnings. Valero's reliance on refining spreads poses risks, especially with potential economic downturns, but its strong assets and shareholder commitment make it an interesting investment. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 23
Valero Energy Earnings Preview: Industry Best Operating Costs Shine Bright In A Weak Market
Summary Valero Energy is the lowest-cost refiner, providing a wide moat advantage and strong financial results even in weak markets. I project VLO will exceed Q3 earnings estimates despite a 17% decline in refining margins, driven by its industry-best operating costs. Four refinery closures in 2025 will improve market fundamentals, potentially boosting crack spreads and benefiting VLO's Gulf Coast operations. I rate VLO as a HOLD, expecting better price opportunities before the next cyclical upswing in refining margins during summer 2025. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 03
Valero Energy Corporation: A Stalling Bullish Trend
Summary Valero Energy Corporation has experienced a significant decline from its April 2024 peak due to falling crack spreads, impacting revenues and earnings potential. Despite the bearish trend and seasonal weakness in gasoline demand, Valero's attractive dividend policy and stable factor grades make it a compelling long-term investment. The upcoming U.S. election could influence Valero shares significantly, with potential changes in energy and tax policies affecting the company's future performance. I recommend buying Valero shares on significant price corrections, particularly at technical support levels of $120 and $100, anticipating a rebound during peak driving seasons. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| VLO | US Oil and Gas | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -1.5% | 1.1% | -0.8% |
| 1Y | 87.3% | 37.4% | 27.1% |
Return vs Industry: VLO exceeded the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 37.4% over the past year.
Return vs Market: VLO exceeded the US Market which returned 27.1% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| VLO volatility | |
|---|---|
| VLO Average Weekly Movement | 6.0% |
| Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement | 6.1% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.3% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: VLO has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: VLO's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 9,785 | R. Riggs | www.valero.com |
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CBOB) gasolines, CARB diesel, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and asphalt; feedstocks; aromatics; sulfur and residual fuel oil; intermediate oils; and sulfur, sweet, and sour crude oils.
Valero Energy Corporation Fundamentals Summary
| VLO fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$75.35b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$4.20b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$117.84b |
17.1x
P/E Ratio0.6x
P/S RatioIs VLO overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| VLO income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$117.84b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$100.68b |
| Gross Profit | US$17.16b |
| Other Expenses | US$12.97b |
| Earnings | US$4.20b |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 14.13 |
| Gross Margin | 14.56% |
| Net Profit Margin | 3.56% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 34.1% |
How did VLO perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
2.0%
Current Dividend Yield33%
Payout RatioDoes VLO pay a reliable dividends?
See VLO dividend history and benchmarks| Valero Energy dividend dates | |
|---|---|
| Ex Dividend Date | May 21 2026 |
| Dividend Pay Date | Jun 23 2026 |
| Days until Ex dividend | 1 day |
| Days until Dividend pay date | 32 days |
Does VLO pay a reliable dividends?
See VLO dividend history and benchmarksCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/21 04:36 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/21 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Valero Energy Corporation is covered by 40 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| William Selesky | Argus Research Company |
| Theresa Chen | Barclays |
| Mark Gilman | Benchmark Company |