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The Best Energy Sector Stocks For 2025

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StickmanCyborgNot Invested
Community Contributor

Published

January 02 2025

Updated

January 03 2025

Narratives are currently in beta

The energy sector is a bedrock of global markets, offering investors one of the most unique blends between growth potential and reliable income through the payment of dividends.

For 2025, many other specialized stock analysts and I have compiled three prominent stocks in the energy industry that could see the most stable growth potential and incomes from dividends that can help investors capitalize on the sector’s resilience: Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), and Valero Energy Corporation (VLO).

Stock 1: CNQ (Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.)

- Target Price: $43 -> $55

- Stop-Loss: $39

At present, CNQ trades at a 51.4% discount to its estimated fair value, suggesting a strong upside potential. The stock boasts a 5-year average dividend yield of 4.47% and a sustainable dividend payout ratio of 59.03%, which signals reliable income for dividend investors. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29, CNQ demonstrates sound financial management, ensuring its ability to weather market volatility.

The forecasted earnings growth of 5.13% annually for the next three years justifies the upward curve in stock price. With the analysts' consensus at 26.6% in price increase, I put a target of $55, carrying a potential +27.91% gain. A stop-loss at $39 is prudent to limit downside risk if market corrections should occur.

Stock 2: XOM (Exxon Mobil Corporation)

- Target Price: $125 -> $145

- Stop-Loss: $115

XOM represents a blue-chip energy stock with free cash flow per share of $7.81 and dividend yield of 4.98%, higher than industry averages. Its incredibly low debt-to-equity of 0.16 shows excellent financial discipline. While XOM's some shareholder dilution isn't ideal, stable earnings at EPS $1.92 and strong cash positions instill high confidence in the sustainability of its dividend.

Trading at a 29.2% discount to fair value and with a consensus forecast of a 21% price increase, XOM offers both growth and income opportunities. I expect it to reach $145, reflecting a 16% upside, while maintaining a stop-loss at $115 to limit potential losses.

Stock 3: VLO (Valero Energy Corporation)

- Target Price : $160 -> $190

- Stop-Loss : $145

In this regard, outstanding is VLO, with excellent free cash flow per share of $18.34 and a dividend coverage ratio of 2.65%, the highest among peers. Even though its profit margins are lower compared to the previous year at 2.9% versus 7.4%, respectively, VLO's valuation is 71.8% below its fair value, and its dividend yield is attractive at 3.49%.

Analysts anticipate 21% price appreciation, which meets my target of $190. The target offers an +18.75% potential return, while a stop-loss at $145 protects against any downside risks from forecasted earnings declines.

CNQ, XOM, and VLO are the perfect fit for the investment strategy of undervalued energy stocks with high cash flow, sustainable dividends, and upside potential for growth.

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Disclaimer

The user StickmanCyborg holds no position in NYSE:VLO. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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Fair Value
US$185.5
24.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
StickmanCyborg's Fair Value
Future estimation in
PastFuture050b100b150b2014201720202023202420262029Revenue US$161.9bEarnings US$6.9b
% p.a.
Decrease
Increase
Current revenue growth rate
-3.42%
Oil and Gas revenue growth rate
5.91%