HF Sinclair (NYSE:DINO) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of DINO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

DINO ($45.65) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($77.66)

DINO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	3/6

DINO Stock Overview

HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company.

Rewards

Trading at 41.2% below our estimate of its fair value

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 15.8% per year for the next 3 years

Dividend of 3.5% is not well covered by earnings

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

HF Sinclair Competitors

PBF Energy

NYSE:PBF

US$3.7b

CVR Energy

NYSE:CVI

US$3.4b

Sunoco

NYSE:SUN

US$3.2b

Phillips 66

NYSE:PSX

US$40.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for HF Sinclair
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$45.65
52 Week High	US$58.50
52 Week Low	US$27.17
Beta	1.54
1 Month Change	-13.61%
3 Month Change	16.40%
1 Year Change	40.07%
3 Year Change	-0.39%
5 Year Change	68.51%
Change since IPO	2,709.23%

Shareholder Returns

	DINO	US Oil and Gas	US Market
7D	5.0%	1.1%	-2.5%
1Y	40.1%	28.8%	-21.2%

Return vs Industry: DINO exceeded the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 28.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: DINO exceeded the US Market which returned -21.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is DINO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
DINO volatility
DINO Average Weekly Movement	7.0%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	8.9%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: DINO is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: DINO's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2021	4,208	Mike Jennings	https://www.hfsinclair.com

HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company. It produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, specialty and modified asphalt, and others. The company also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming; and markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states.

HF Sinclair Fundamentals Summary

How do HF Sinclair's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
DINO fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$10.19b
Earnings (TTM)	US$562.68m
Revenue (TTM)	US$22.34b

18.1x

P/E Ratio

0.5x

P/S Ratio

Is DINO overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
DINO income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$22.34b
Cost of Revenue	US$20.59b
Gross Profit	US$1.75b
Other Expenses	US$1.19b
Earnings	US$562.68m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 08, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.52
Gross Margin	7.84%
Net Profit Margin	2.52%
Debt/Equity Ratio	38.0%

How did DINO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.5%

Current Dividend Yield

12%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is DINO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DINO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for DINO. This is calculated by dividing DINO's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is DINO's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$10.19b

DINO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11.2x
PEG Ratio	-1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DINO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

DINO PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for DINO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	14.6x
PBF PBF Energy	14.7x	-58.7%	US$3.7b
CVI CVR Energy	21.4x	-39.2%	US$3.4b
SUN Sunoco	6.2x	-8.4%	US$3.2b
PSX Phillips 66	16x	-3.6%	US$40.6b
DINO HF Sinclair	18.1x	-15.8%	US$10.2b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DINO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the peer average (14.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DINO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DINO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DINO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DINO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	18.1x
Fair PE Ratio	12.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DINO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DINO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DINO ($45.65) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($77.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DINO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: DINO's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is HF Sinclair forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-15.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: DINO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-15.8% per year).

Earnings vs Market: DINO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-15.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: DINO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: DINO's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-7.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: DINO's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-7.7% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: DINO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.9%).

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Past Performance

How has HF Sinclair performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-17.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: DINO has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: DINO became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: DINO has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by -17.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: DINO has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: DINO has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (102.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: DINO's Return on Equity (7.5%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is HF Sinclair's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: DINO's short term assets ($6.2B) exceed its short term liabilities ($3.6B).

Long Term Liabilities: DINO's short term assets ($6.2B) exceed its long term liabilities ($5.2B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: DINO's net debt to equity ratio (31.3%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: DINO's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 42.7% to 38% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: DINO's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (23.9%).

Interest Coverage: DINO's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (7.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is HF Sinclair current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

3.50%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: DINO's dividend (3.5%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.6%).

High Dividend: DINO's dividend (3.5%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.25%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: DINO's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: DINO's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (11.8%), DINO's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: DINO is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.1yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Mike Jennings (56 yo)

2.5yrs

Tenure

US$11,473,664

Compensation

Mr. Michael C. Jennings, also known as Mike, serves as Chief Executive Officer of HollyFrontier Corporation since March 14, 2022 and serves as its Director. He serves as Chief Executive Officer of HF Sincl...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Mike's total compensation ($USD11.47M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD13.34M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Mike's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: DINO's management team is considered experienced (2.1 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: DINO's board of directors are considered experienced (4.7 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: DINO insiders have sold more shares than they have bought in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 37.4%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/03 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31