HF Sinclair Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
HF Sinclair's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -9.3%, while the Oil and Gas industry saw earnings growing at 5.4% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 4.8% per year. HF Sinclair's return on equity is 18.6%, and it has net margins of 6.1%.
Key information
-9.33%
Earnings growth rate
-9.24%
EPS growth rate
| Oil and Gas Industry Growth | 33.67% |
| Revenue growth rate | 4.76% |
| Return on equity | 18.56% |
| Net Margin | 6.08% |
| Last Earnings Update | 30 Jun 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Jul 31
HF Sinclair: Building Cash Is The Right Move (Earnings Review)
Summary HF Sinclair (DINO) delivered one of its strongest financial results, driven by record crack spreads and robust cash generation. DINO announced plans to spin off its lubricant business, seeking higher valuation multiples for this segment. The company doubled its cash reserves to $2.2B, adopting a cautious, unhurried approach to capital allocation. Geopolitical tensions may sustain elevated profitability, supporting a HOLD rating as the cycle evolves and valuation remains reasonable. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 31
DINO: Refining Margin Peak And Lubes Spinout Will Challenge Cycle Sustainability
Analysts have lifted the HF Sinclair fair value estimate from $62.00 to $67.00, reflecting higher price targets that reference recent Q2 earnings strength across refining, lubricants, and renewable diesel, the planned Lubes spinout, and the company’s exposure to tighter refining supply and demand conditions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on HF Sinclair highlights a mix of optimism around near term earnings power and more cautious views on how sustainable current conditions might be.Narrative Update • Jul 17
DINO: Rich P E And Leadership Turnover Will Challenge Refining Windfall Sustainability
HF Sinclair's updated fair value estimate has increased to $62.00. This change reflects analysts' broader pattern of raising price targets into the $78.00 to $95.00 range, citing tighter global refining markets, strong segment fundamentals and expectations for cash generation that can support capital structure improvements.
Narrative Update • Jul 03
DINO: Refining Margins And Capital Returns Will Shape Balanced Forward Risk Reward Profile
Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for HF Sinclair higher from $73.29 to $76.29. Updated price targets, including recent moves around the $78 to $79 range, reflect views that supportive refining margins and potential capital structure improvements offset more cautious assumptions on longer term fuel demand and earnings drivers.
Narrative Update • Jun 18
DINO: Refining Margins And Downstream Portfolio Will Support Future Stock Upside
Analysts have raised the HF Sinclair fair value estimate from $70.00 to $87.00. This change reflects updated views on refining margins, modestly higher expected revenue growth and profitability, and a slightly adjusted discount rate.Narrative Update • Jun 04
DINO: Leadership Turnover And Rich P E May Pressure Future Capital Returns
HF Sinclair's analyst price target has edged higher to reflect a modest increase in estimated fair value to about $57.29, even as analysts factor in a higher discount rate, softer revenue growth and margin assumptions, and a richer future P/E, along with recent target hikes and one downgrade tied to valuation and management uncertainty. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on HF Sinclair shows a mixed backdrop, with several firms lifting price targets while at least one has turned more cautious on the stock.Narrative Update • May 15
DINO: Governance Uncertainty And Portfolio Mix Will Shape Forward Risk Reward Profile
HF Sinclair's average analyst price target has moved from about $58.93 to roughly $73.29, as analysts factor in updated assumptions for revenue trends, profit margins and future P/E multiples following a series of recent target changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on HF Sinclair show a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms raising their price targets while others trim estimates or downgrade ratings as they reassess execution risks and governance questions.Narrative Update • Apr 29
DINO: Governance Uncertainty Around CEO Leave Will Pressure Future Capital Returns
HF Sinclair's analyst fair value estimate has moved modestly higher to $57.01 from $55.16 as analysts factor in revised oil price assumptions, mixed refining and Lubes performance, and uncertainty around leadership and disclosure reviews in their updated price targets. Analyst Commentary Recent research on HF Sinclair reflects a mixed backdrop, with several bearish analysts highlighting execution issues, governance questions, and refining and Lubes headwinds as reasons for more cautious price targets and ratings.Narrative Update • Apr 14
DINO: Governance Review And Mixed Refining Outlook Will Shape Capital Returns
The updated analyst price target for HF Sinclair has increased by just over $5 per share. Analysts attribute this change to revised refined oil price assumptions and to the company’s refining and specialty businesses, which are viewed as mixed but still valuable contributors.Narrative Update • Mar 31
DINO: Governance Review And Leadership Uncertainty Will Pressure Capital Return Outlook
HF Sinclair's updated analyst price target has edged down to $50, with analysts pointing to mixed refining and Lubes results, questions around leadership and disclosure reviews, and adjusted oil price assumptions as key drivers behind the change. Analyst Commentary Recent research on HF Sinclair shows a split picture, with some firms lifting targets on refining exposure and oil price assumptions, while others trim targets or ratings as they reassess execution and governance risk.Narrative Update • Mar 17
DINO: West Coast Assets And Downstream Portfolio Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed HF Sinclair's fair value estimate from $75.00 to $70.00 and lowered average price targets, reflecting weaker refining and Lubes performance and increased uncertainty around leadership and disclosure reviews, even as some still highlight strengths in the Lubes, Marketing, Midstream and refining portfolio. Analyst Commentary Recent research on HF Sinclair points to a split view, with several firms lowering price targets after mixed quarterly results and leadership uncertainty, while some bullish analysts still see upside tied to the core refining and downstream portfolio.Narrative Update • Mar 03
DINO: West Coast Margins And Governance Review Will Shape Future Performance
Analysts have trimmed their average price target for HF Sinclair by about $1.50 to roughly $59. This reflects mixed Q4 results, weaker refining and Lubes performance, and uncertainty tied to the CEO's leave of absence and the ongoing review of disclosure processes, even as they still highlight value in the higher multiple Lubes, Marketing and Midstream businesses and a competitive refining footprint.Narrative Update • Feb 17
DINO: West Coast Margin Exposure And Execution Risks Will Shape Future Performance
Analysts have made only a small net adjustment to HF Sinclair's targets, with recent changes of around $1 to $4 up or down reflecting a mix of caution on revenue expectations and a more constructive view on margins and the stock's position among mid-cap refiners. Analyst Commentary Recent research on HF Sinclair reflects a mix of optimism on the company’s positioning and refining exposure, alongside more cautious takes on revenue and earnings risk, which together have kept price target changes relatively contained.Narrative Update • Feb 02
DINO: West Coast Refining Margins Will Drive Future Upside Potential
Narrative Update: HF Sinclair The HF Sinclair analyst price target has been updated to US$75.00, with analysts pointing to a revised outlook that pairs softer revenue growth expectations with higher projected profit margins and a slightly adjusted P/E framework. Analyst Commentary Recent research on HF Sinclair has been active, with several bullish analysts adjusting price targets higher and upgrading their views.Narrative Update • Jan 19
DINO: Refining Margins And Midstream Expansion Will Shape Balanced Capital Return Outlook
Analysts have reduced their price targets on HF Sinclair to about $51 from $53, reflecting updated views on margins, long-term P/E expectations, and recent target revisions from several firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research on HF Sinclair shows a mix of views, with some firms trimming price targets while others are still willing to raise them.Narrative Update • Jan 05
DINO: Refining Economics And Midstream Expansion Will Drive Capital Return Upside
Analysts have lifted their average price targets on HF Sinclair into the mid US$60s, citing updated expectations for a return to revenue growth, higher profit margins, and a lower forward P/E multiple compared with prior assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on HF Sinclair reflects a mix of optimism on capital return potential and caution around sector headwinds and earnings power.Analysis Article • Dec 18
Are HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?
Key Insights HF Sinclair's estimated fair value is US$37.83 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share...Narrative Update • Dec 15
DINO: Refining Economics And Capital Returns Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward Outlook
HF Sinclair's analyst price target has been lifted sharply from $38.47 to $53.00, as analysts factor in a series of recent target increases from major firms. These moves highlight resilient refining economics and supportive capital return dynamics despite softer demand indicators.Narrative Update • Nov 30
DINO: Share Buyback Program And PADD Expansion Will Drive Sector Outperformance
HF Sinclair's analyst price target has edged slightly higher to $60.53 from $60.00, as analysts factor in stable refining economics and mixed sector outlooks highlighted in recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent coverage of HF Sinclair has highlighted both areas of optimism and ongoing concerns that influence analysts' views on the stock's valuation, operational performance, and growth outlook.Narrative Update • Nov 16
DINO: Upward Sector Trends And Expansion Plans Will Shape Near-Term Prospects
HF Sinclair’s analyst price target has increased from $58.80 to $60.00 per share, as analysts cite improved sector sentiment and favorable market trends supporting a higher fair value outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates highlight a mix of optimistic and cautious perspectives from the Street regarding HF Sinclair’s prospects.Narrative Update • Nov 02
DINO: Share Buybacks And Capital Returns Will Drive Outperformance In A Bearish Sector
The average analyst price target for HF Sinclair increased slightly from $58.13 to $58.80. Analysts recognized improved profit margin and revenue growth outlooks, supported by robust refining economics and positive sector return-of-capital trends.Narrative Update • Oct 18
Global Diesel Demand And Renewables Will Unlock New Opportunities
HF Sinclair's analyst average price target has increased by nearly $2 to $58, as analysts raise estimates to reflect stronger refining margins, positive sector performance, and capital return strategies. This comes despite lingering concerns about renewables headwinds.Narrative Update • Oct 04
Global Diesel Demand And Renewables Will Unlock New Opportunities
Analysts have raised their average price target for HF Sinclair from $53.71 to $56.31. This change reflects updated expectations for stronger profit margins and continued robust refining economics, despite some ongoing headwinds in renewables.Narrative Update • Sep 19
Global Diesel Demand And Renewables Will Unlock New Opportunities
The consensus analyst price target for HF Sinclair has increased to $53.71, reflecting robust Q2 and Q3 margin outperformance and improved longer-term outlooks, partially offset by concerns over valuation and margin sustainability. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite strong Q2 earnings outperformance, with robust refining margin capture surpassing expectations and Q3 margin strength continuing into September.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Global Diesel Demand And Renewables Will Unlock New Opportunities
Analysts remain divided on HF Sinclair, with bulls citing higher future earnings estimates and sector re-rating, while bears see valuation as stretched after strong performance and forecast slowing momentum, resulting in the consensus price target holding steady at $51.43. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts raised 2025 and 2026 estimates for HF Sinclair, citing stronger Mid-Continent cracks, improved capture rates, and higher Lubes margins.Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How HF Sinclair makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 26 | 31,228 | 1,899 | 483 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 26 | 27,622 | 1,220 | 467 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 26,869 | 574 | 456 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 26,905 | 389 | 443 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 26,861 | -90 | 456 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 27,923 | -142 | 449 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 28,580 | 175 | 447 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 29,740 | 329 | 449 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 31,438 | 1,189 | 449 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 31,426 | 1,539 | 467 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 31,964 | 1,576 | 497 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 33,289 | 2,219 | 431 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 34,983 | 2,380 | 406 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 38,311 | 3,087 | 380 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 38,205 | 2,893 | 374 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 34,843 | 2,273 | 375 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 28,929 | 1,604 | 382 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 22,344 | 561 | 363 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 18,389 | 551 | 354 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 15,667 | 470 | 330 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 13,802 | 191 | 304 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 11,287 | -152 | 299 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 11,184 | -603 | 314 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 12,665 | -423 | 326 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 14,270 | -159 | 333 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 16,990 | 214 | 340 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 17,487 | 771 | 354 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 17,449 | 852 | 323 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 17,795 | 932 | 312 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 17,483 | 1,080 | 297 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 17,715 | 1,094 | 283 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 17,363 | 1,471 | 274 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 16,312 | 1,400 | 265 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 15,299 | 1,113 | 255 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 14,251 | 800 | 235 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 13,214 | 335 | 183 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 12,342 | 139 | 155 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 11,597 | -328 | 128 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 10,536 | -261 | 110 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 10,524 | -358 | 123 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 11,263 | -237 | 120 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 12,250 | 533 | 117 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 13,238 | 738 | 121 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 14,577 | 560 | 119 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: DINO has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: DINO became profitable in the past.
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: DINO's earnings have declined by 9.3% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: DINO has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: DINO has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (27.4%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: DINO's Return on Equity (18.6%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/08/14 21:37 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/08/14 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
HF Sinclair Corporation is covered by 29 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| William Selesky | Argus Research Company |
| Theresa Chen | Barclays |
| Phillip Jungwirth | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |