HF Sinclair Corporation

NYSE:DINO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$12.8b

HF Sinclair Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

HF Sinclair's earnings are forecast to decline at 10.4% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 0.7% per year. EPS is expected to decline by 7.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 9.5% in 3 years.

Key information

-10.4%

Earnings growth rate

-7.63%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth10.7%
Revenue growth rate0.7%
Future return on equity9.51%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated05 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • Aug 03

HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO) Second-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from HF Sinclair Corporation ( NYSE:DINO ), an important milestone...

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Apr 29

DINO: Governance Uncertainty Around CEO Leave Will Pressure Future Capital Returns

HF Sinclair's analyst fair value estimate has moved modestly higher to $57.01 from $55.16 as analysts factor in revised oil price assumptions, mixed refining and Lubes performance, and uncertainty around leadership and disclosure reviews in their updated price targets. Analyst Commentary Recent research on HF Sinclair reflects a mixed backdrop, with several bearish analysts highlighting execution issues, governance questions, and refining and Lubes headwinds as reasons for more cautious price targets and ratings.
Narrative Update • Apr 14

DINO: Governance Review And Mixed Refining Outlook Will Shape Capital Returns

The updated analyst price target for HF Sinclair has increased by just over $5 per share. Analysts attribute this change to revised refined oil price assumptions and to the company’s refining and specialty businesses, which are viewed as mixed but still valuable contributors.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 13

Buy HF Sinclair On Bumper Profits

Summary US refiners have already gained over 30% YTD on energy uncertainty and disruptions around the conflict in Iran. Refining margins or crack spreads often increase as the cost of finished fuels follow or even outpace crude oil prices. The conflict in Iran remains unresolved with restricted traffic through the Straight of Hormuz and US plans to blockade Iranian ports. Global energy prices and market uncertainty are likely to remain elevated providing short term support for DINO share prices and longer term support for profits. Although I do not expect an orderly or well behaved market, I recommend those investors with appropriate risk tolerance buy DINO at current market prices. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Mar 31

DINO: Governance Review And Leadership Uncertainty Will Pressure Capital Return Outlook

HF Sinclair's updated analyst price target has edged down to $50, with analysts pointing to mixed refining and Lubes results, questions around leadership and disclosure reviews, and adjusted oil price assumptions as key drivers behind the change. Analyst Commentary Recent research on HF Sinclair shows a split picture, with some firms lifting targets on refining exposure and oil price assumptions, while others trim targets or ratings as they reassess execution and governance risk.
Narrative Update • Mar 17

DINO: West Coast Assets And Downstream Portfolio Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed HF Sinclair's fair value estimate from $75.00 to $70.00 and lowered average price targets, reflecting weaker refining and Lubes performance and increased uncertainty around leadership and disclosure reviews, even as some still highlight strengths in the Lubes, Marketing, Midstream and refining portfolio. Analyst Commentary Recent research on HF Sinclair points to a split view, with several firms lowering price targets after mixed quarterly results and leadership uncertainty, while some bullish analysts still see upside tied to the core refining and downstream portfolio.
Narrative Update • Mar 03

DINO: West Coast Margins And Governance Review Will Shape Future Performance

Analysts have trimmed their average price target for HF Sinclair by about $1.50 to roughly $59. This reflects mixed Q4 results, weaker refining and Lubes performance, and uncertainty tied to the CEO's leave of absence and the ongoing review of disclosure processes, even as they still highlight value in the higher multiple Lubes, Marketing and Midstream businesses and a competitive refining footprint.
Narrative Update • Feb 17

DINO: West Coast Margin Exposure And Execution Risks Will Shape Future Performance

Analysts have made only a small net adjustment to HF Sinclair's targets, with recent changes of around $1 to $4 up or down reflecting a mix of caution on revenue expectations and a more constructive view on margins and the stock's position among mid-cap refiners. Analyst Commentary Recent research on HF Sinclair reflects a mix of optimism on the company’s positioning and refining exposure, alongside more cautious takes on revenue and earnings risk, which together have kept price target changes relatively contained.
Narrative Update • Feb 02

DINO: West Coast Refining Margins Will Drive Future Upside Potential

Narrative Update: HF Sinclair The HF Sinclair analyst price target has been updated to US$75.00, with analysts pointing to a revised outlook that pairs softer revenue growth expectations with higher projected profit margins and a slightly adjusted P/E framework. Analyst Commentary Recent research on HF Sinclair has been active, with several bullish analysts adjusting price targets higher and upgrading their views.
Narrative Update • Jan 19

DINO: Refining Margins And Midstream Expansion Will Shape Balanced Capital Return Outlook

Analysts have reduced their price targets on HF Sinclair to about $51 from $53, reflecting updated views on margins, long-term P/E expectations, and recent target revisions from several firms. Analyst Commentary Recent research on HF Sinclair shows a mix of views, with some firms trimming price targets while others are still willing to raise them.
Narrative Update • Jan 05

DINO: Refining Economics And Midstream Expansion Will Drive Capital Return Upside

Analysts have lifted their average price targets on HF Sinclair into the mid US$60s, citing updated expectations for a return to revenue growth, higher profit margins, and a lower forward P/E multiple compared with prior assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on HF Sinclair reflects a mix of optimism on capital return potential and caution around sector headwinds and earnings power.
Analysis Article • Dec 18

Are HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights HF Sinclair's estimated fair value is US$37.83 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share...
Narrative Update • Dec 15

DINO: Refining Economics And Capital Returns Will Shape Balanced Risk Reward Outlook

HF Sinclair's analyst price target has been lifted sharply from $38.47 to $53.00, as analysts factor in a series of recent target increases from major firms. These moves highlight resilient refining economics and supportive capital return dynamics despite softer demand indicators.
Narrative Update • Nov 30

DINO: Share Buyback Program And PADD Expansion Will Drive Sector Outperformance

HF Sinclair's analyst price target has edged slightly higher to $60.53 from $60.00, as analysts factor in stable refining economics and mixed sector outlooks highlighted in recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent coverage of HF Sinclair has highlighted both areas of optimism and ongoing concerns that influence analysts' views on the stock's valuation, operational performance, and growth outlook.
Narrative Update • Nov 16

DINO: Upward Sector Trends And Expansion Plans Will Shape Near-Term Prospects

HF Sinclair’s analyst price target has increased from $58.80 to $60.00 per share, as analysts cite improved sector sentiment and favorable market trends supporting a higher fair value outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates highlight a mix of optimistic and cautious perspectives from the Street regarding HF Sinclair’s prospects.
Narrative Update • Nov 02

DINO: Share Buybacks And Capital Returns Will Drive Outperformance In A Bearish Sector

The average analyst price target for HF Sinclair increased slightly from $58.13 to $58.80. Analysts recognized improved profit margin and revenue growth outlooks, supported by robust refining economics and positive sector return-of-capital trends.
Narrative Update • Oct 18

Global Diesel Demand And Renewables Will Unlock New Opportunities

HF Sinclair's analyst average price target has increased by nearly $2 to $58, as analysts raise estimates to reflect stronger refining margins, positive sector performance, and capital return strategies. This comes despite lingering concerns about renewables headwinds.
Narrative Update • Oct 04

Global Diesel Demand And Renewables Will Unlock New Opportunities

Analysts have raised their average price target for HF Sinclair from $53.71 to $56.31. This change reflects updated expectations for stronger profit margins and continued robust refining economics, despite some ongoing headwinds in renewables.
Narrative Update • Sep 19

Global Diesel Demand And Renewables Will Unlock New Opportunities

The consensus analyst price target for HF Sinclair has increased to $53.71, reflecting robust Q2 and Q3 margin outperformance and improved longer-term outlooks, partially offset by concerns over valuation and margin sustainability. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite strong Q2 earnings outperformance, with robust refining margin capture surpassing expectations and Q3 margin strength continuing into September.
Narrative Update • Sep 04

Global Diesel Demand And Renewables Will Unlock New Opportunities

Analysts remain divided on HF Sinclair, with bulls citing higher future earnings estimates and sector re-rating, while bears see valuation as stretched after strong performance and forecast slowing momentum, resulting in the consensus price target holding steady at $51.43. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts raised 2025 and 2026 estimates for HF Sinclair, citing stronger Mid-Continent cracks, improved capture rates, and higher Lubes margins.
Analysis Article • Aug 04

HF Sinclair (NYSE:DINO) Is Paying Out A Dividend Of $0.50

HF Sinclair Corporation's ( NYSE:DINO ) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.50 per share on 4th of September...
Analysis Article • Aug 03

HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO) Second-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from HF Sinclair Corporation ( NYSE:DINO ), an important milestone...
Analysis Article • Jul 16

Does HF Sinclair (NYSE:DINO) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Seeking Alpha • Feb 10

Regional Factors Slowing Refiner HF Sinclair

Summary Inland refiner HF Sinclair has a $6.8 billion market cap. It pays a 5.45% dividend. Refiner's large margins last year after SPR crude release have normalized and become considerably narrower. HF Sinclair faces more competition and thus higher prices for less expensive crudes, particularly from Canada, than it has previously. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Jan 08

HF Sinclair Corp: A Nuanced Investment Case

HF Sinclair Corporation represents an intricate investment proposition in the ever-shifting dynamics of the energy sector. Against the background of recent underperformance, a combination of factors s
Seeking Alpha • Jan 05

HF Sinclair: The Market Says The Bottom Is In (Rating Upgrade)

Summary HF Sinclair (DINO) is upgraded to a BUY as the stock hits my previous $33-$35/share target, despite Q4 expected to be the weakest quarter. Crack spreads have shown a sustained recovery since December, indicating potential margin recovery and profitability improvements in the refining sector. Significant trading volume in late December suggests a shift in market behavior, with expectations of increased profitability in 2025. The current valuation is attractive based on mid-cycle EBITDA projections. I expect 25% upside potential on a market recovery in addition to the 5.7% dividend. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Aug 25

Optimizing Operations And Expanding Markets Brighten Prospects, Despite Analysts Predicting A Squeeze On Margins And Earnings

Efforts in refining and renewable segments aim to boost revenue, with a focus on enhanced reliability and efficient feedstock usage.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 23

HF Sinclair: Featured Stock From Our July Safest Dividend Yields Model Portfolio

Summary I’m back again to give you another free stock pick from our Safest Dividend Yields Model Portfolio. HF Sinclair's free cash flow exceeds regular dividend payments, providing a 4% dividend yield. HF Sinclair is also undervalued with a price-to-economic book value ratio of 0.5. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 17

HF Sinclair: Not Cheap Enough To Benefit From A Refining Upturn

Summary HF Sinclair shares have underperformed, down 20% in the past quarter and up just 7% in the past year, as crack spreads have narrowed. DINO operates 7 refineries with a 678,000-bpd capacity, along with renewable diesel, lubricant, and midstream assets. In a $20-25 crack spread environment, the Company has nearly $1 billion in free cash flow, and refining margins will be the primary driver of shares. Despite the potential for crack spreads to rise, DINO's lower capital returns compared to peers like Marathon Petroleum make it a hold. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:DINO - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202828,346918N/A1,6405
12/31/202729,6689381,2001,7009
12/31/202632,7691,8901,7432,0168
3/31/202627,6221,2251,3961,861N/A
12/31/202526,8695748661,315N/A
9/30/202526,9053926761,167N/A
6/30/202526,861-875731,067N/A
3/31/202527,923-140237704N/A
12/31/202428,5801756401,110N/A
9/30/202429,7403291,0601,480N/A
6/30/202431,4381,1891,7932,170N/A
3/31/202431,4261,5392,0622,436N/A
12/31/202331,9641,5761,9122,297N/A
9/30/202333,2892,2192,6142,982N/A
6/30/202334,9832,3802,0692,455N/A
3/31/202338,3113,0873,0283,494N/A
12/31/202238,2052,8933,2533,777N/A
9/30/202234,8432,2731,8472,529N/A
6/30/202228,9291,6041,1081,906N/A
3/31/202222,344561-16805N/A
12/31/202118,389551-407407N/A
9/30/202115,667470141806N/A
6/30/202113,802191105639N/A
3/31/202111,287-152-66330N/A
12/31/202011,184-603128458N/A
9/30/202012,665-423217528N/A
6/30/202014,270-159585888N/A
3/31/202016,9902141,2081,522N/A
12/31/201917,487771N/A1,549N/A
9/30/201917,449852N/A1,836N/A
6/30/201917,795932N/A1,796N/A
3/31/201917,4831,080N/A1,437N/A
12/31/201817,7151,094N/A1,554N/A
9/30/201817,3631,471N/A1,296N/A
6/30/201816,3121,400N/A1,206N/A
3/31/201815,2991,113N/A1,325N/A
12/31/201714,251800N/A951N/A
9/30/201713,214335N/A948N/A
6/30/201712,342139N/A770N/A
3/31/201711,597-328N/A561N/A
12/31/201610,536-261N/A607N/A
9/30/201610,524-358N/A521N/A
6/30/201611,263-237N/A720N/A
3/31/201612,250533N/A739N/A
12/31/201513,238738N/A986N/A
9/30/201514,577560N/A856N/A
6/30/201516,309539N/A607N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: DINO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-10.4% per year).

Earnings vs Market: DINO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-10.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: DINO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: DINO's revenue (0.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: DINO's revenue (0.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: DINO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.5%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 12:16
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

HF Sinclair Corporation is covered by 26 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
William SeleskyArgus Research Company
Theresa ChenBarclays
Phillip JungwirthBMO Capital Markets Equity Research