HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO) Second-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues came in 2.6% below expectations, at US$6.8b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of US$1.10 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from HF Sinclair's 13 analysts is for revenues of US$27.7b in 2025. This would reflect a credible 3.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. HF Sinclair is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$2.44 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$27.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.26 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on HF Sinclair's earnings potential following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for HF Sinclair

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$50.07, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values HF Sinclair at US$61.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$42.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that HF Sinclair's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while HF Sinclair's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around HF Sinclair's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for HF Sinclair going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that HF Sinclair is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.