HF Sinclair Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Investors in HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE:DINO) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.1% to close at US$56.67 following the release of its first-quarter results. Revenues of US$7.0b fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of US$1.57 an impressive 112% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for HF Sinclair

Taking into account the latest results, HF Sinclair's ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$31.6b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to sink 12% to US$7.08 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$31.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.40 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the nice gain to earnings per share expectations following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$66.38, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values HF Sinclair at US$77.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$54.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the HF Sinclair's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that HF Sinclair's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that HF Sinclair is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around HF Sinclair's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$66.38, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on HF Sinclair. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for HF Sinclair going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with HF Sinclair (including 1 which is concerning) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.