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Positioned to Win as the Streaming Wars Settle

Published
23 Dec 25
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Investingwilly's Fair Value
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1Y
2.3%
7D
-0.6%

Author's Valuation

US$135.0231.0% undervalued intrinsic discount

Investingwilly's Fair Value

Netflix has quietly moved from being a high-growth disruptor to a highly profitable global media platform. After years of heavy content spending and margin pressure, the company is now firmly in its cash-generation phase, with improving operating leverage and a clearer long-term strategy than most of its peers.

What’s increasingly clear is that Netflix is no longer just “another streamer” — it is becoming the central distribution layer of global entertainment.

A Business That’s Scaling Profitably

Netflix’s recent results highlight a company benefiting from scale:

  • Subscriber growth remains resilient, even in mature markets
  • Average revenue per user is rising, supported by pricing power and the ad-supported tier
  • Operating margins continue to expand, as content spend grows more slowly than revenue

Crucially, Netflix now generates significant free cash flow, giving it flexibility that competitors like Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Paramount still lack. While others are restructuring, cutting content, or selling assets, Netflix is playing offense.

The Warner Bros Angle: Strategic Optionality, Not Dependence

Recent news around Warner Bros. Discovery has once again highlighted Netflix’s strategic position in the industry.

As traditional media companies explore consolidation, asset sales, and partnerships to survive the streaming transition, Netflix stands out as the natural long-term home for premium content. Whether through deeper licensing agreements, distribution partnerships, or potential corporate action over time, Netflix benefits from the pressure its competitors are under.

From a bullish perspective, the key takeaway isn’t that Netflix needs Warner Bros. — it’s that:

  • Netflix has the balance sheet strength to participate if opportunities arise
  • Netflix’s platform is increasingly the default global outlet for high-quality IP
  • Industry consolidation generally strengthens the market leader, not the challengers

Even without major deals, Netflix already competes successfully against HBO, Disney, and Amazon on content quality and global reach. Any incremental access to legacy IP only reinforces that advantage.

A Growing Competitive Moat

Netflix’s moat today rests on several reinforcing pillars:

  • Unmatched global scale, allowing content to be amortized across hundreds of millions of users
  • Data-driven content investment, reducing the risk of big-budget failures
  • Brand strength, with Netflix synonymous with streaming in many markets
  • Distribution dominance, increasingly attractive to studios looking to monetize content efficiently

The introduction of advertising has further widened this moat. Netflix can now monetize users across multiple price points, improving lifetime value without relying solely on price hikes.

Why the Market May Still Be Undervaluing Netflix

Despite its strong run, Netflix is often still valued as a cyclical media company rather than a durable global platform. However, the business today looks structurally different from its past:

  • Lower capital intensity
  • Higher recurring cash flows
  • More predictable earnings growth

As margins normalize at higher levels and free cash flow becomes more consistent, Netflix begins to resemble a media-tech hybrid with platform economics, not a traditional studio.

Bullish Outlook

Netflix appears well-positioned for the next phase of the streaming industry:

  • Weaker competitors are retrenching
  • Content owners need distribution more than ever
  • Consumers are consolidating subscriptions around a few winners

In that environment, Netflix doesn’t need everything to go right — it simply needs to keep executing.

For long-term investors, Netflix increasingly looks less like a speculative growth story and more like a high-quality compounder, with optional upside from industry consolidation and continued margin expansion.

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Disclaimer

The user Investingwilly has a position in NasdaqGS:NFLX. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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