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Netflix
NasdaqGS:NFLX Community
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Netflix
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Netflix
MI
MichaelP
Content Lead
Industry Consolidation and Internal Initiatives Will Support Subscriber growth
Key Takeaways Possible consolidation in the streaming market will benefit NFLX with better negotiating leverage Internal initiatives of ad-plans and paid sharing will drive user and revenue growth ARPM will increase due to future price increases and advertising revenue Advertising dollars will transition from Cable TV to NFLX as its ad-supported members base grows Discipline on content costs will increase net margins and push future earnings and cash flows higher Catalysts Industry Catalysts Consolidation Of Content In The Streaming Market After 25 years of expensive growth, Netflix has now become the most dominant, profitable streaming player in the world. With 238m subscribers, trailing 12 month revenues of $32bn and cash flows of $4.6bn (all as of June 30 2023), the company has reached scale economics that allow the streaming model to work profitably.
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US$797.74
FV
32.7% overvalued
intrinsic discount
13.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
20
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
17
users have followed this narrative
3 months ago
author updated this narrative
Netflix
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Scale, Operating Leverage And Ad Plans Will Drive EPS Growth
Key Takeaways Netflix ad-supported plans will drive new revenue Revenue per user will decrease in short term from ad plans, but increase longer term Margins will continue to improve as costs grow slower than revenue (operating leverage) User growth expected from password sharing crackdown I believe these 3 catalysts will result in $52bn in revenue and $12.5bn profit by 2028 Catalysts Industry Catalysts There is Room For More Than One Streaming Platform The video streaming industry has become very competitive, and the market has been hyper focused on the question of “who will win the streaming war.” I don’t think this is a winner takes all situation, and there is room for a handful of platforms. There are pros and cons to each platform and many households end up subscribing to two or three platforms.
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US$936.00
FV
13.1% overvalued
intrinsic discount
11.50%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
11
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
16
users have followed this narrative
3 months ago
author updated this narrative
Netflix
WA
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 41 Analysts
Investments In Global Content And Ad Tech Will Strengthen Future Audience Engagement
Key Takeaways Strategic investments in diverse content, ad-supported tiers, and live events support subscriber growth, retention, and revenue enhancement. Video game strategy leveraging existing IP aims to increase engagement, acquisition, and growth in the gaming market.
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US$1.06k
FV
0.5% undervalued
intrinsic discount
12.13%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
1
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
75
users have followed this narrative
18 days ago
author updated this narrative
Your Valuation for
NFLX
Netflix
Your Fair Value
US$
Current Price
US$1.06k
13.3% undervalued
intrinsic discount
Growth estimate over
Annual revenue growth rate
5 Years
time period
%/yr
Decrease
Increase
Past
Future
0
63b
2015
2018
2021
2024
2025
2027
2030
Revenue US$63.3b
Earnings US$14.1b
Advanced
Set as Fair Value