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RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Followers
103
Total number of followers
Comments
16
Total number of comments
Member Since
2018
Date joined
Spotify Technology
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Ad Revenue and Margin Improvement Will Lead to Stronger Cash Flows
Key Takeaways Premium revenue to be kept in check by competition and market saturation. Gross margin will improve, but remain below 30%.
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US$222.00
FV
167.8% overvalued
intrinsic discount
17.45%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
5
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
5
users have followed this narrative
6 months ago
author updated this narrative
Bank of America
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Underwater Bond Holdings Will Squeeze its Net Interest Margin
Key Takeaways Banks are being forced to offer higher rates to keep deposits. Lending will remain slow, which will squeeze net interest margins.
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US$44.16
FV
3.8% undervalued
intrinsic discount
2.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
5
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
13
users have followed this narrative
4 months ago
author updated this narrative
Exxon Mobil
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
ExxonMobil's Focus On Margins Rather Than Growth Will Help It Cash In On Tight Supply
Key Takeaways Oil supply will remain tight leading to a higher and more volatile oil price. Volatility will favor large well capitalized energy companies.
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US$126.39
FV
8.3% undervalued
intrinsic discount
2.94%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
13
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
12
users have followed this narrative
5 months ago
author updated this narrative
Advanced Micro Devices
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Intense Competition Will Force AMD to Sacrifice Margins In Favor of R&D Spend
Key Takeaways Revenue growth will improve and then slow due to cyclical nature of chip demand There will be an inevitable plateau in AI investment Competition between CPU and GPU producers will intensify due massive long term potential This will result in very high R&D spend by all three, particularly AMD AMD’s revenue growth accelerates then falls into single digits by 2028 Catalysts Industry Catalysts CPU Demand Will Accelerate in 2024 and 2025, but Decelerate Again by 2028 CPU sales for the client segment is likely to accelerate rapidly as inventories have fallen and a new replacement cycle is overdue. Within the datacenter segment growth will be more measured.
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US$103.16
FV
3.9% overvalued
intrinsic discount
16.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
32
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
13
users have followed this narrative
5 months ago
author updated this narrative
PayPal Holdings
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Huge Competition In The Payments Space Will Halve Net Margins
Key Takeaways Payments industry is likely going to become increasingly competitive. PYPL's margin trouble will likely persist - too many competing firms + high incentive to offer lower fees.
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US$75.50
FV
7.7% undervalued
intrinsic discount
18.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
53
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
10
users have followed this narrative
6 months ago
author updated this narrative
Visa
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Inflation, New Initiatives and Scale Will Grow EPS
Key Takeaways Visa is a very high-quality business with an enviable market share and margins. New initiatives like Visa Direct will offset the loss of momentum from legacy growth drivers EPS growth will be driven by ‘higher for longer’ inflation, slightly wider margins, and buybacks.
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US$284.00
FV
19.5% overvalued
intrinsic discount
11.50%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
16
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
8
users have followed this narrative
6 months ago
author updated this narrative
Coca-Cola
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Lack Of Revenue Diversification And Growth Options Will Hurt Valuation Multiple
Key Takeaways Coca-Cola’s PE ratio has risen to the high 20s due to a recent revival in profit growth. However, several non-recurring factors have driven these improvement in margins and growth.
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US$54.61
FV
27.7% overvalued
intrinsic discount
5.50%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
9
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
14
users have followed this narrative
5 months ago
author updated this narrative
Netflix
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Scale, Operating Leverage And Ad Plans Will Drive EPS Growth
Key Takeaways Netflix ad-supported plans will drive new revenue Revenue per user will decrease in short term from ad plans, but increase longer term Margins will continue to improve as costs grow slower than revenue (operating leverage) User growth expected from password sharing crackdown I believe these 3 catalysts will result in $52bn in revenue and $12.5bn profit by 2028 Catalysts Industry Catalysts There is Room For More Than One Streaming Platform The video streaming industry has become very competitive, and the market has been hyper focused on the question of “who will win the streaming war.” I don’t think this is a winner takes all situation, and there is room for a handful of platforms. There are pros and cons to each platform and many households end up subscribing to two or three platforms.
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US$936.00
FV
1.6% overvalued
intrinsic discount
11.50%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
11
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
19
users have followed this narrative
5 months ago
author updated this narrative
Intel
RI
Richard_Bowman
Equity Analyst and Writer
Ambitious Product Roadmap And A Cyclical Recovery In PC Market Will Drive EPS Growth
Key Takeaways Market has low expectations for Intel due to a series of strategic errors in recent years. Market is underestimating Intel’s aggressive strategy to regain product leadership.
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US$79.00
FV
69.7% undervalued
intrinsic discount
10.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
Set as Fair Value
86
users have liked this narrative
0
users have commented on this narrative
28
users have followed this narrative
6 months ago
author updated this narrative