PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of PBF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

PBF ($31.79) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] ($18.35)

PBF fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	0/6

PBF Stock Overview

PBF Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in refining and supplying petroleum products.

Rewards

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 58.7% per year for the next 3 years

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

PBF Energy Competitors

CVR Energy

NYSE:CVI

US$3.5b

Sunoco

NYSE:SUN

US$3.2b

HF Sinclair

NYSE:DINO

US$10.3b

World Fuel Services

NYSE:INT

US$1.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for PBF Energy
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$31.79
52 Week High	US$44.12
52 Week Low	US$7.24
Beta	2.26
1 Month Change	-3.49%
3 Month Change	30.45%
1 Year Change	107.78%
3 Year Change	9.39%
5 Year Change	42.75%
Change since IPO	21.11%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 06

Is PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF) Using Too Much Debt?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...

Shareholder Returns

	PBF	US Oil and Gas	US Market
7D	-5.9%	0.07%	1.6%
1Y	107.8%	31.4%	-20.8%

Return vs Industry: PBF exceeded the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 37.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PBF exceeded the US Market which returned -20.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PBF's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PBF volatility
PBF Average Weekly Movement	10.0%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	8.8%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: PBF is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PBF's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2008	3,418	Tom Nimbley	https://www.pbfenergy.com

PBF Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in refining and supplying petroleum products. The company operates in two segments, Refining and Logistics. It produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt, as well as unbranded transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks, blending components, and other petroleum products.

PBF Energy Fundamentals Summary

How do PBF Energy's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PBF fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$3.87b
Earnings (TTM)	US$251.20m
Revenue (TTM)	US$31.47b

15.3x

P/E Ratio

0.1x

P/S Ratio

Is PBF overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PBF income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$31.47b
Cost of Revenue	US$30.33b
Gross Profit	US$1.14b
Other Expenses	US$888.10m
Earnings	US$251.20m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Jul 28, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.08
Gross Margin	3.62%
Net Profit Margin	0.80%
Debt/Equity Ratio	166.9%

How did PBF perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is PBF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PBF?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for PBF. This is calculated by dividing PBF's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is PBF's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$3.87b

PBF key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11.6x
PEG Ratio	-0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PBF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

PBF PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for PBF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	15.8x
CVI CVR Energy	22.3x	-39.2%	US$3.5b
SUN Sunoco	6.2x	-8.4%	US$3.2b
DINO HF Sinclair	18.3x	-15.8%	US$10.3b
INT World Fuel Services	16.1x	25.3%	US$1.3b
PBF PBF Energy	15.3x	-58.7%	US$3.9b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PBF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x) compared to the peer average (15.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PBF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PBF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (12x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PBF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PBF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	15.3x
Fair PE Ratio	5.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PBF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PBF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PBF ($31.79) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($18.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PBF is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: PBF's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is PBF Energy forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 10 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-58.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PBF's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-58.7% per year).

Earnings vs Market: PBF's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-58.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PBF's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PBF's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-5.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PBF's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-5.4% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PBF's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (3.2%).

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Past Performance

How has PBF Energy performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-41.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PBF has a large one-off gain of $226.0M impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: PBF became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PBF has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by -41.1% per year.

Accelerating Growth: PBF has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: PBF has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (102.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: PBF's Return on Equity (13.2%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is PBF Energy's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PBF's short term assets ($6.4B) exceed its short term liabilities ($5.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: PBF's short term assets ($6.4B) exceed its long term liabilities ($5.3B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PBF's net debt to equity ratio (110.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: PBF's debt to equity ratio has increased from 82.2% to 166.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: PBF's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (19.1%).

Interest Coverage: PBF's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.3x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is PBF Energy current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

0.066%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate PBF's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate PBF's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if PBF's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if PBF's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: PBF is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as PBF has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Tom Nimbley (70 yo)

12yrs

Tenure

US$7,294,215

Compensation

Mr. Thomas J. Nimbley, also known as Tom, serves as the Chief Executive Officer at Paulsboro Refining Company LLC. Mr. Nimbley has been the Executive Chairman of PBF Logistics GP LLC, a General Partner at...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Tom's total compensation ($USD7.29M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.90M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Tom's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: PBF's management team is seasoned and experienced (6.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: PBF's board of directors are considered experienced (6.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: PBF insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/29 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/29 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31