PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know

Shareholders might have noticed that PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.2% to US$36.20 in the past week. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$8.7b, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.56 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for PBF Energy

Taking into account the latest results, the twelve analysts covering PBF Energy provided consensus estimates of US$32.7b revenue in 2024, which would reflect an uneasy 12% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 87% to US$0.90 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$35.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.70 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a large cut to earnings per share numbers.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$47.25, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on PBF Energy's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic PBF Energy analyst has a price target of US$57.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$35.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await PBF Energy shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 23% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.9% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - PBF Energy is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple PBF Energy analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for PBF Energy (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com