PBF Energy Future Growth
Future criteria checks 0/6
PBF Energy's earnings are forecast to decline at 6% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 3.1% per year. EPS is expected to decline by 9.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 5.7% in 3 years.
Key information
-6.0%
Earnings growth rate
-9.93%
EPS growth rate
| Oil and Gas earnings growth | 9.8% |
| Revenue growth rate | 3.1% |
| Future return on equity | 5.67% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 04 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Analysis Article • 17h
Solid Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF)
PBF Energy Inc. ( NYSE:PBF ) just released a solid earnings report, and the stock displayed some strength. However, we...
Narrative Update • Apr 29
PBF: Higher Oil Price Assumptions Will Pressure Margins And Future Shareholder Returns
The analyst fair value estimate for PBF Energy has increased from $27.00 to $28.00 as analysts factor in a series of recent price target revisions across the Street and modest updates to assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, and profit margin. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on PBF Energy shows a mix of higher and lower price targets, with several firms reaffirming Neutral ratings even as their targets move.Narrative Update • Apr 15
PBF: Higher Oil Price Assumptions Will Pressure Refining Margins And Future Earnings
Analysts have raised the implied fair value estimate for PBF Energy to $27 from $22. This reflects recent increases in published price targets and a shift toward higher assumed future P/E multiples, even as they incorporate expectations for a softer revenue outlook and slimmer profit margins.
Narrative Update • Apr 01
PBF: Shifting Crude Flows Will Drive West Coast Margin Upside Potential
Analysts have raised the central price target reference for PBF Energy from $43.00 to approximately $59.94, reflecting updated views on long term revenue trends, profit margins, discount rates and future P/E assumptions in light of recent sector research and commodity price outlooks. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a cluster of higher price targets and rating upgrades on PBF Energy, with several bullish analysts highlighting supportive commodity assumptions, tighter regional fuel markets and potential balance sheet support as key parts of the story.Seeking Alpha • Mar 31
PBF Energy: Middle East Conflict Should Keep The Stock Price Elevated (Buy)
Summary PBF Energy has restored operations to its Martinez refinery as of March and revenue should increase for 2026. The price of oil and of crack spread contracts are elevated due to the Iran conflict. The company's stock price has increased 164% over the last year and may continue its uptrend. I change my rating from a Hold to a short-term Buy with higher risk. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Mar 18
PBF: Higher Oil Price Assumptions Will Pressure Returns Despite Crude Trade Tailwinds
Analysts have raised the average fair value estimate for PBF Energy to about $36.62 from $31.92. This reflects higher price targets tied to updated oil price assumptions and expectations for U.S. refiners' crude trade flows and valuation support.Narrative Update • Mar 04
PBF: Shifting Crude Flows And West Coast Tightness Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Narrative Update Overview The analyst fair value estimate for PBF Energy has increased by $1, from $42 to $43, as analysts incorporate updated assumptions around revenue growth, profitability, and a higher future P/E multiple in light of recent research that highlights potential benefits from shifting crude trade flows and U.S. refining exposure. Analyst Commentary Recent research on PBF Energy highlights a clear shift toward a more constructive stance, with bullish analysts updating their views as they factor in changing crude trade flows, refining exposure, and valuation gaps versus peers.Narrative Update • Feb 17
PBF: Regional Refining Margin Risks Will Pressure Future Earnings Power
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for PBF Energy from $19.00 to $22.00 per share as they incorporate updated expectations for discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions informed by recent price target increases from the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around PBF Energy has centered on how changing crude trade flows and regional refining balances could affect the company’s earnings power and valuation.Narrative Update • Feb 03
PBF: Martinez Execution And Crude Trade Shifts Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts have increased their PBF Energy price target by about $1, supported by a slightly higher fair value estimate, a lower discount rate, and modestly adjusted assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples that reflect recent sector research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on PBF Energy highlights a mix of upside potential and execution risks that investors are watching closely.Narrative Update • Jan 20
PBF: Martinez Restart Will Unlock West Coast Tightness-Driven Cash Upside
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for PBF Energy to US$42.00 from about US$40.36, citing expectations for improved margins, a lower required return, and continued support for the investment thesis from recent price target increases tied to California market tightness, Martinez restart progress, and potential shifts in crude trade flows benefiting U.S. refiners. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to generally constructive sentiment around PBF Energy, with several bullish analysts adjusting price targets and ratings while highlighting company specific catalysts.Narrative Update • Jan 06
PBF: Martinez Restart And 4Q25 Insurance Tranche Will Reshape Cash Profile
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for PBF Energy to about $40 from roughly $42, reflecting updated assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E. Recent Street research price target increases highlight differing views on the impact of the Martinez refinery restart and related insurance proceeds.Analysis Article • Dec 20
It's Down 30% But PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks
PBF Energy Inc. ( NYSE:PBF ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month...Narrative Update • Dec 14
PBF: Martinez Restart Will Drive Upside In Tighter California Refining Markets
Analysts have raised their price target on PBF Energy to approximately $42 from about $28, reflecting expectations for stronger revenue growth, a lower perceived risk profile, and operational upside tied to the Martinez refinery restart and tighter California refining markets. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts have steadily lifted their price targets on PBF Energy over recent months, signaling rising confidence in the company’s earnings power and execution.Narrative Update • Nov 29
PBF: Margin Risks From Martinez Restart Will Weigh On Near-Term Outlook
PBF Energy’s analyst price target was increased by $0.50 to $30.58. Analysts cited refining margin resilience, successful Martinez restart progress, and improving profitability as key reasons for the upgrade.Narrative Update • Nov 15
PBF: Margin Volatility Will Challenge Recent Optimism Into 2026
The average analyst price target for PBF Energy has risen from $28.00 to $30.08. This reflects expectations for improved margins and successful execution in key markets according to recent analyst commentary.Narrative Update • Nov 01
PBF: Refining Margins May Decline As Supply Tightens Into 2026
PBF Energy's analyst price target has been increased from $26.75 to $28.00 per share. This change reflects improved revenue growth forecasts and stronger profit margin expectations according to recent analyst updates.Narrative Update • Oct 18
Underinvestment And Supply Consolidation Will Empower US Refining
Analysts have raised their price target on PBF Energy by $1.00 to $26.75. They cite tighter global product markets and improved profit margin outlooks as key factors behind the adjustment.Narrative Update • Oct 04
Underinvestment And Supply Consolidation Will Empower US Refining
PBF Energy's analyst price target has been raised from $23.83 to $25.75. Analysts cite improved profit margins, higher expected revenue growth, and tighter supply-demand dynamics in the global refining market as supporting factors for the upward revision.Narrative Update • Sep 19
Underinvestment And Supply Consolidation Will Empower US Refining
Analysts have raised their price targets for PBF Energy, citing tightness in global distillate markets and improved earnings outlooks, though caution remains regarding sector valuation and margin sustainability, resulting in a consensus target increase from $22.75 to $23.83. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite persistent distillate tightness and a global products market that remains relatively tight, providing support for margins into 2026 and possibly beyond.Analysis Article • Sep 17
Improved Revenues Required Before PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) Stock's 31% Jump Looks Justified
The PBF Energy Inc. ( NYSE:PBF ) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 31...Narrative Update • Sep 04
Underinvestment And Supply Consolidation Will Empower US Refining
Analysts have modestly raised PBF Energy's price target to $22.75, reflecting positive earnings revisions driven by ongoing distillate strength and tight supply/demand balances, though caution persists over the sector's rally and margin sustainability. Analyst Commentary Positive earnings revisions expected for the back half of the year, driven by ongoing distillate strength and tightening global supply/demand balances into 2026 and 2027.Analysis Article • Jun 10
Is PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF) Using Too Much Debt?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...Seeking Alpha • Feb 14
PBF Energy: Beatings Will Continue Until Crack Spreads Improve
Summary PBF Energy's high operating costs and declining crack spreads have led to significant cash burn and a degrading balance sheet, warranting a SELL rating. The Martinez refinery fire adds further uncertainty, with no clear timeline for repairs and potential negative impacts on future cash flow. Despite a low price-to-book valuation, PBF's poor financial performance and lack of cost-effectiveness make it a less attractive investment compared to peers. Crack spreads need to double from Q4 levels for PBF to achieve neutral free cash flow, which seems unlikely in the near term. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 07
PBF Energy: Where Did All The Cash Go?
Summary The refining market in 2024 is challenging, with PBF Energy facing high operating costs and potential cash depletion due to continued losses. PBF's cash reserves have dwindled risking further depletion or debt accumulation if market conditions don't improve. High West Coast operations concentration and new competition from China and India pose long-term risks, prompting a maintained SELL rating. Projected Q4 losses and declining margins threaten PBF's dividend and balance sheet, with expected losses exceeding $2/share in the 4th quarter. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 29
PBF Energy Earnings Preview: More Losses In The Third Quarter
Summary Declining crack spreads have the potential to widen the quarterly loss for PBF. I expect this to be the second consecutive quarter PBF operates at a loss. Negative earnings significantly alter the typical valuation metrics and point to the deterioration of the "undervalued" thesis in the short term. Changes in valuation present near-term price risk, while the refinery markets navigate through general weakness. Refinery closures could restore the crack spreads to mid-cycle conditions by the second half of 2025. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Sep 03
Refinery Turnaround And Decisive Investments Promise Growth Amid Analyst Concerns Over Margins And Earnings
Strategic focus on enhancing shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividend payments indicates a commitment to positive future earnings per share.Seeking Alpha • Sep 01
PBF Energy Might Be Cheapest Net-Asset Play On Wall Street (Rating Upgrade)
Summary PBF Energy is trading at a significant discount to its tangible book value, presenting a favorable investment opportunity in the refining sector. The company is nearly debt-free, with strong cash flows, creating a unique valuation discount in the sector using EV ratio analysis. Insider buying by billionaire Carlos Slim, plus the potential for increased dividends and share buybacks further bolster the case for a Strong Buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 34,011 | 439 | 425 | N/A | 5 |
| 12/31/2027 | 32,934 | 529 | 900 | 1,297 | 10 |
| 12/31/2026 | 35,328 | 905 | 1,031 | 1,404 | 9 |
| 3/31/2026 | 30,170 | 442 | -684 | 260 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 29,332 | -159 | -783 | -78 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 29,544 | -526 | -1,286 | -774 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 30,275 | -982 | -1,333 | -868 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 31,536 | -1,042 | -996 | -634 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 33,115 | -534 | -347 | 43 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 34,903 | -293 | 302 | 679 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 37,254 | 779 | 868 | 1,274 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 37,675 | 1,865 | 357 | 917 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 38,325 | 2,141 | 679 | 1,339 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 40,032 | 2,827 | 1,336 | 2,156 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 42,064 | 3,097 | 2,155 | 3,009 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 46,984 | 3,280 | 4,143 | 4,897 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 46,830 | 2,877 | 4,139 | 4,772 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 44,228 | 2,404 | 3,302 | 3,801 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 38,650 | 1,407 | 2,291 | 2,682 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 31,470 | 251 | 473 | 803 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 27,253 | 231 | 228 | 477 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 22,665 | -233 | 307 | 487 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 19,145 | -709 | -98 | 62 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 14,763 | -368 | -578 | -409 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 15,116 | -1,392 | -828 | -632 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 17,762 | -1,041 | -545 | -291 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 20,525 | -555 | 13 | 332 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 24,570 | -976 | 483 | 848 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 24,508 | 319 | N/A | 934 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 24,500 | -88 | N/A | 550 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 25,715 | 22 | N/A | 503 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 26,600 | 327 | N/A | 774 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 27,186 | 128 | N/A | 838 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 27,429 | 723 | N/A | 1,084 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 25,262 | 858 | N/A | 1,028 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 22,835 | 476 | N/A | 766 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 21,787 | 415 | N/A | 686 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 19,999 | 227 | N/A | 586 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 19,033 | -45 | N/A | 401 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 17,875 | 169 | N/A | 507 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 15,920 | 171 | N/A | 652 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 14,532 | -3 | N/A | 708 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 13,237 | -3 | N/A | 459 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 12,929 | 30 | N/A | 407 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 13,124 | 146 | N/A | 560 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 14,283 | -12 | N/A | 344 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 16,326 | 86 | N/A | 608 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: PBF's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-6% per year).
Earnings vs Market: PBF's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-6% per year).
High Growth Earnings: PBF's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: PBF's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: PBF's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: PBF's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (5.7%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 01:04 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
PBF Energy Inc. is covered by 24 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Yim Cheng | Barclays |
| Phillip Jungwirth | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |
| Jean Ann Salisbury | BofA Global Research |