Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On PBF Energy Inc.'s (NYSE:PBF) Third-Quarter Report

There's been a notable change in appetite for PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 13% to US$28.08. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$8.4b, while statutory losses ballooned to US$2.48 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on PBF Energy after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for PBF Energy

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 13 analysts covering PBF Energy is for revenues of US$32.9b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 5.8% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. PBF Energy is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.63 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$33.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.78 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$32.69, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic PBF Energy analyst has a price target of US$40.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$25.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.7% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.8% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - PBF Energy is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that PBF Energy's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for PBF Energy going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for PBF Energy that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.