Secular Trends Will Sustain Demand For Refined Products And Renewables

Key Takeaways

• Tightening supply and resilient demand for refined products are boosting utilization rates, margins, and stable cash flows for the company’s refining segment.
  
• Strategic investments in renewables, value chain integration, and efficiency are expanding margin capture and supporting greater returns through improved profitability and cost reductions.
  
• Persistent pressure on margins, high regulatory and maintenance burdens, and slow diversification into renewables threaten HF Sinclair’s revenue stability and long-term competitive positioning.

Catalysts

Operates as an independent energy company in the United States.

• The company is positioned to capture higher product margins and volumes as global and domestic demand for refined products grows with population and infrastructure development, while recent and upcoming refinery closures in North America and Europe are tightening supply. This will likely drive utilization rates higher and bolster refining segment revenues and earnings.
  
• Resilient baseline demand for gasoline, diesel, and lubricants—underpinned by the slow adoption of renewables and ongoing use of internal combustion vehicles in North America—creates a multi-year runway for stable cash flows and supports elevated EBITDA through the cycle.
  
• Expansion in renewable diesel and optimized feedstock management enables HF Sinclair to benefit from regulatory incentives and improved profitability once uncertainty on tax credits and new regulations clears, providing potential for higher net margins in renewables as market conditions normalize.
  
• Strategic expansion and integration across the value chain, including growth in branded retail outlets and midstream assets, are expected to increase margin capture, drive higher Marketing and Midstream EBITDA, and deliver more predictable and diversified sources of cash flow.
  
• Ongoing investments in refinery modernization and operational efficiency, coupled with the winding down of above-normal turnaround spending, are set to lower per-barrel costs and reduce capital outlays in future years, directly improving earnings leverage and supporting higher returns to shareholders.

HF Sinclair Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• This narrative explores a more optimistic perspective on HF Sinclair compared to the consensus, based on a Fair Value that aligns with the bullish cohort of analysts.
• The bullish analysts are assuming HF Sinclair's revenue will grow by 1.4% annually over the next 3 years.
• The bullish analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -0.5% today to 3.6% in 3 years time.
• The bullish analysts expect earnings to reach $1.1 billion (and earnings per share of $5.59) by about July 2028, up from $-143.0 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the price target of the more bullish analyst cohort, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 12.4x on those 2028 earnings, up from -59.1x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Oil and Gas industry at 12.3x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 1.26% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 6.82%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

HF Sinclair Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• The company reported a first quarter net loss of 4 million dollars attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders, and an adjusted net loss of 50 million dollars, down significantly from the prior year's first quarter adjusted net income of 142 million dollars, highlighting the risk of earnings volatility and indicating persistent pressure on profit margins if market conditions do not improve.
  
• HF Sinclair's refining segment saw a dramatic drop in adjusted EBITDA from 209 million dollars in the first quarter of 2024 to negative 8 million dollars in the first quarter of 2025, mainly due to lower refinery gross margins and reduced sales volumes, echoing the secular trend of long-term declining demand for refined petroleum products and raising concerns over future revenue stability.
  
• The company's renewables segment continues to operate at a loss, reporting negative 17 million dollars in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, and remains highly sensitive to shifting regulatory regimes and uncertain tax credits, exposing it to ongoing regulatory risk and threatening sustained improvement in segment earnings.
  
• Capital expenditures and maintenance requirements remain high, with 775 million dollars expected in sustaining capital spending for the year amid ongoing turnaround activity, imposing continuing demands on cash flow and potentially depressing net margins as the company manages its aging asset base under increasingly strict environmental and regulatory standards.
  
• HF Sinclair has so far exhibited a slower pace of diversification into low-carbon and renewable markets compared to peers, and with refining still comprising a core part of its business, the company risks lagging behind industry transitions which, in the long term, could suppress top line growth and negatively affect valuation multiples.

Valuation

• The assumed bullish price target for HF Sinclair is $59.08, which represents two standard deviations above the consensus price target of $48.75. This valuation is based on what can be assumed as the expectations of HF Sinclair's future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors from analysts on the bullish end of the spectrum.
• However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $61.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $38.0.
• In order for you to agree with the bullish analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $29.1 billion, earnings will come to $1.1 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 12.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 6.8%.
• Given the current share price of $44.84, the bullish analyst price target of $59.08 is 24.1% higher.
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.