Phillips 66

NYSE:PSX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$54.1b

Phillips 66 Valuation

Is PSX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PSX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PSX ($131.45) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($282.83)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PSX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PSX?

Key metric: As PSX is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PSX. This is calculated by dividing PSX's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PSX's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.2x
EarningsUS$3.36b
Market CapUS$54.08b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PSX's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PSX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.7x
MPC Marathon Petroleum
11.3x-12.0%US$51.0b
VLO Valero Energy
12.1x-1.7%US$45.0b
DINO HF Sinclair
24.4x23.6%US$8.0b
SUN Sunoco
14.9x20.7%US$7.3b
PSX Phillips 66
16.2x15.1%US$54.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PSX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the peer average (15.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PSX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
PSX 16.2xIndustry Avg. 11.7xNo. of Companies15PE0612182430+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PSX is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PSX's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PSX PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.2x
Fair PE Ratio16.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PSX is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PSX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$131.45
US$141.90
+7.9%
8.2%US$167.00US$122.00n/a18
Nov ’25US$120.01
US$143.23
+19.3%
7.9%US$167.00US$122.00n/a18
Oct ’25US$132.99
US$145.71
+9.6%
9.3%US$182.00US$122.00n/a17
Sep ’25US$140.31
US$153.08
+9.1%
8.2%US$176.00US$122.00n/a17
Aug ’25US$140.95
US$152.55
+8.2%
8.7%US$176.00US$122.00n/a17
Jul ’25US$140.93
US$157.20
+11.5%
9.5%US$191.00US$122.00n/a17
Jun ’25US$142.11
US$162.66
+14.5%
8.4%US$191.00US$122.00n/a18
May ’25US$140.21
US$165.29
+17.9%
9.0%US$191.00US$125.00n/a19
Apr ’25US$163.34
US$159.29
-2.5%
8.7%US$179.00US$125.00n/a19
Mar ’25US$144.20
US$150.40
+4.3%
7.4%US$169.00US$125.00n/a20
Feb ’25US$145.55
US$145.17
-0.3%
8.8%US$166.00US$119.00n/a20
Jan ’25US$133.14
US$135.39
+1.7%
7.5%US$151.00US$116.00n/a19
Dec ’24US$129.70
US$130.52
+0.6%
6.4%US$146.00US$116.00n/a17
Nov ’24US$116.09
US$130.64
+12.5%
6.5%US$146.00US$116.00US$120.0117
Oct ’24US$120.15
US$131.11
+9.1%
6.4%US$144.00US$115.00US$132.9916
Sep ’24US$117.17
US$127.05
+8.4%
5.4%US$141.00US$115.00US$140.3116
Aug ’24US$112.11
US$120.12
+7.1%
7.0%US$132.00US$101.00US$140.9517
Jul ’24US$95.38
US$119.76
+25.6%
8.3%US$139.00US$101.00US$140.9317
Jun ’24US$93.05
US$120.35
+29.3%
8.8%US$139.00US$101.00US$142.1117
May ’24US$98.40
US$124.53
+26.6%
6.7%US$141.00US$110.00US$140.2117
Apr ’24US$101.38
US$124.94
+23.2%
8.4%US$141.00US$102.00US$163.3417
Mar ’24US$107.24
US$122.31
+14.1%
8.7%US$141.00US$102.00US$144.2016
Feb ’24US$97.99
US$122.69
+25.2%
8.2%US$141.00US$102.00US$145.5516
Jan ’24US$104.08
US$120.81
+16.1%
7.8%US$137.00US$102.00US$133.1416
Dec ’23US$108.04
US$122.31
+13.2%
9.8%US$155.00US$102.00US$129.7016
Nov ’23US$107.38
US$111.00
+3.4%
8.7%US$127.00US$96.00US$116.0916

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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