Phillips 66

NYSE:PSX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$70.3b

Phillips 66 Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Phillips 66's revenue is forecast to decline at 1.4% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 5.6% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 16.5% in 3 years.

Key information

5.6%

Earnings growth rate

9.01%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth10.9%
Revenue growth rate-1.4%
Future return on equity16.52%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated10 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 10

Phillips 66: Markets Underappreciate The Durability Of Refining Profitability

Summary Phillips 66 is well-positioned for a significant windfall from elevated crack spreads driven by global supply disruptions and the Iran War. Refining margins surged to $10.11/barrel, with spreads near $60, potentially delivering $7B+ cumulative windfall through 2027, or ~$20/share. Operational improvements and cost reductions, alongside a 50% capital return policy, support robust shareholder returns and accelerated debt reduction. I maintain a Buy rating on PSX, raising my 2026 EPS estimate to at least $17.50 and setting a 12-month price target of $190. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 26

PSX: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Western Gateway Midstream Expansion

Analysts have nudged the Phillips 66 fair value estimate higher by about $2 to roughly $181 per share. This reflects updated price targets that take into account refined oil price assumptions, recent conversations with management, and refreshed earnings models across multiple research firms.
New Narrative • Apr 20

Heavy Crude Exposure And Cost Targets Will Limit Long Term Earnings Potential

Catalysts About Phillips 66 Phillips 66 is a diversified energy company involved in refining, midstream logistics, chemicals, marketing and renewable fuels. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update • Apr 09

PSX: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Midstream Delivery And Venezuela Crude Shift

Analysts have lifted the Phillips 66 fair value estimate from $165.45 to $179.10, citing a series of higher Street price targets and updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Phillips 66 has been active, with a cluster of price target revisions and refreshed models across large banks and sector specialists.
New Narrative • Apr 02

Midstream Expansion And Heavy Crude Optionality Will Define This Refining Leader’s Next Chapter

Catalysts About Phillips 66 Phillips 66 is an integrated energy company with operations in refining, midstream, chemicals and marketing across North America and Europe. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?
Narrative Update • Mar 26

PSX: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Midstream Execution And Venezuela Crude Realignment

Analysts have lifted the Phillips 66 fair value estimate from $160.15 to $165.45. The revision reflects a series of higher price targets that cite updated oil price assumptions, discussions with management on midstream growth, and refreshed models following recent commodity and geopolitical developments.
Narrative Update • Mar 12

PSX: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Midstream Projects And Venezuela Crude Shift

Our fair value estimate for Phillips 66 has moved modestly higher to $160.15 from $157.55, as analysts update models and price targets, including several recent increases toward the $158 level. They cite midstream growth expectations and refreshed assumptions following the latest Q4 updates and management commentary.
Narrative Update • Feb 26

PSX: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Midstream Expansion And Venezuela Crude Sourcing Shift

Our Phillips 66 fair value estimate edges up by about $2 to $157.55 as analysts lift price targets toward $158, pointing to updated models after recent results and a constructive view on midstream growth prospects for FY25 and FY26. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Phillips 66 is clustered around updated models and revised price targets, with most activity tied to Q4 reporting and views on midstream fundamentals heading into FY25 and FY26.
Analysis Article • Feb 11

Concerns Surrounding Phillips 66's (NYSE:PSX) Performance

Following the solid earnings report from Phillips 66 ( NYSE:PSX ), the market responded by bidding up the stock price...
Narrative Update • Feb 10

PSX: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Pipeline Expansion And Refiner Sentiment Reset

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Phillips 66 higher to $155.70 from $151.45, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly revised P/E outlook informed by a recent wave of price target changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Phillips 66 shows a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms revising price targets and updating their views ahead of upcoming quarters.
Narrative Update • Jan 26

PSX: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Cash Returns And Refiner Sentiment Reset

The analyst price target for Phillips 66 has shifted to US$151.45 from about US$149.30 as analysts incorporate updated commodity assumptions, modestly softer revenue and margin expectations, and slightly higher future P/E multiples into their models. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Phillips 66 point to a mix of optimism around execution and margins, alongside fresh caution on sector risks and valuation after a strong share price move.
Narrative Update • Jan 12

PSX: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Cash Returns And Refining Margin Support

Analysts have made only a modest adjustment to their Phillips 66 fair value estimate, lifting it by about $0.45, as they weigh slightly softer revenue expectations against a small improvement in projected profit margin, a lower discount rate, and a marginally reduced future P/E multiple, all in the context of mixed recent price target changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary on Phillips 66 reflects a mix of optimism around cash returns and refining fundamentals, balanced against concerns about sector sentiment and crude price risks.
Narrative Update • Dec 23

PSX: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Robust Capital Returns Amid Refining Margin Support

Analysts have nudged their blended price target on Phillips 66 slightly lower to approximately $149 from about $149.35, reflecting a modestly higher discount rate and softer long term revenue expectations. This is partially offset by slightly improved profit margin and future earnings multiple assumptions informed by recent target increases and ratings changes across the Street.
Narrative Update • Dec 09

PSX: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Resilient Margins And Capital Returns Balancing Risks

Phillips 66's fair value estimate has edged up by about $2 to $149.35, as analysts factor in a wave of higher price targets across the Street. This shift is supported by expectations for resilient refining margins, supply tightness, and improved profitability, despite more cautious revenue growth assumptions.
Narrative Update • Nov 25

PSX: Future Cash Flows Will Reflect Shifting Refining and Crude Trends Ahead

The analyst price target for Phillips 66 has edged higher from $146.10 to $147.65, as analysts cite sustained refining profitability, an improving revenue growth outlook, and supportive trends in crude markets despite ongoing margin debates. Analyst Commentary Recent street research provides a comprehensive view of how analysts assess Phillips 66's near- and medium-term prospects.
Narrative Update • Nov 03

PSX: Rising Capital Returns And Refining Margins Will Support Sector Resilience Ahead

Phillips 66’s analyst price target has risen modestly to $146.10, reflecting analyst expectations for firmer profit margins and continued sector resilience as energy market dynamics evolve. Analyst Commentary Recent street research provides insight into the factors driving both optimism and caution among analysts covering Phillips 66.
Narrative Update • Oct 20

NGL, Midstream And Refining Upgrades Will Shape Future Success

Phillips 66’s analyst price target has increased from $141.58 to $145.20, as analysts cite resilient refining margins and ongoing industry optimism despite softer demand indicators and modest growth expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst commentary on Phillips 66 reflects both confidence in the company’s positioning and ongoing caution regarding sector dynamics.
Narrative Update • Oct 05

NGL, Midstream And Refining Upgrades Will Shape Future Success

Analysts have raised their price target for Phillips 66 by $1.74 to $141.58, citing stronger-than-expected refining margins and improved outlooks for profit and revenue growth. Analyst Commentary Recent street research reveals a mix of optimism and caution among analysts evaluating Phillips 66.
Narrative Update • Sep 20

NGL, Midstream And Refining Upgrades Will Shape Future Success

Consensus price targets for Phillips 66 have increased to $139.84, reflecting analyst confidence in persistent refining margin strength, strong recent results, and upside from chemicals, while near-term risks from potential activist exits and sector pullbacks are noted. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite persistent strength in refining margins, with global product markets remaining relatively tight and distillate tightness expected to continue into winter, supporting a higher margin risk well into 2026.
Narrative Update • Aug 27

NGL, Midstream And Refining Upgrades Will Shape Future Success

Analysts have slightly lowered Phillips 66’s price target to $136.00, reflecting near-term caution due to potential post-proxy battle selling pressure and high Q2 expectations, despite an improved medium-term refining outlook and a strong balance sheet. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite positive earnings revisions expected in the second half of the year, supported by distillate strength and tightening global product supply/demand balances forecasted for 2026 and 2027.
Analysis Article • Aug 14

Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) Might Be Having Difficulty Using Its Capital Effectively

NYSE:PSX 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Phillips 66's Fair Values from the Community and select yours There...
New Narrative • Apr 06

room for higher margins

Industry Position: Phillips 66 is a major player in the energy sector, particularly in refining, marketing, and transportation. Analysts often look at the company's ability to capitalize on operationa
Seeking Alpha • Mar 26

Elliott Management Applies Pressure With Phillips 66 Board Fight

Summary Phillips 66 has underperformed compared to peers, with chronic issues in its Refining Segment and large investments in underperforming global pet-chem plants. Earlier this month, activist investor Elliott Management nominated seven directors to PSX's board and is lobbying to spin-off PSX's Midstream Segment to unlock shareholder value. PSX's Midstream Segment has shown strong growth and is its most consistent well-performing segment, enabling robust dividend growth since going public. I maintain a Hold rating for PSX due to limited downside, the attractive 3.64% dividend yield, and potential for continued strong dividend growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:PSX - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/2028134,1987,1267,0067,5963
12/31/2027138,5906,6086,7877,9497
12/31/2026146,7206,9497,0037,1187
3/31/2026134,4864,1141192,511N/A
12/31/2025132,3764,3942,7294,962N/A
9/30/2025131,9531,4971,3513,408N/A
6/30/2025132,9661,7081,4883,362N/A
3/31/2025137,7721,8462,9604,614N/A
12/31/2024143,1532,1072,3324,191N/A
9/30/2024147,7383,3583,1965,183N/A
6/30/2024151,8535,1104,5156,736N/A
3/31/2024148,8145,7923,1895,594N/A
12/31/2023147,3997,0044,8747,029N/A
9/30/2023149,4087,6297,3559,589N/A
6/30/2023154,72010,9227,67110,048N/A
3/31/2023168,20712,3928,67410,876N/A
12/31/2022169,99011,0148,92510,813N/A
9/30/2022162,31510,4035,7857,863N/A
6/30/2022147,6035,4165,0276,922N/A
3/31/2022126,0282,5434,9836,882N/A
12/31/2021111,4761,3064,1576,017N/A
9/30/202195,242-5063,0874,856N/A
6/30/202180,948-1,7081,3753,144N/A
3/31/202164,881-2,142-1632,165N/A
12/31/202064,129-3,983-8092,111N/A
9/30/202076,863-2,707-5263,166N/A
6/30/202088,148-1,1963304,337N/A
3/31/2020105,0833691,8045,503N/A
12/31/2019107,2933,070N/A4,808N/A
9/30/2019107,3304,573N/A7,253N/A
6/30/2019109,8845,354N/A6,173N/A
3/31/2019110,9945,270N/A6,607N/A
12/31/2018111,4925,589N/A7,573N/A
9/30/2018108,7196,547N/A5,365N/A
6/30/2018101,1825,878N/A5,184N/A
3/31/201893,0375,088N/A4,685N/A
12/31/201789,3005,100N/A3,648N/A
9/30/201783,1772,066N/A2,384N/A
6/30/201779,2091,753N/A2,866N/A
3/31/201776,7251,699N/A2,156N/A
12/31/201670,8981,549N/A2,963N/A
9/30/201669,1432,036N/A3,793N/A
6/30/201673,1393,103N/A4,347N/A
3/31/201679,8373,620N/A4,619N/A
12/31/201585,2284,221N/A5,713N/A
9/30/201598,0554,717N/A5,088N/A
6/30/2015112,4124,319N/A4,080N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PSX's forecast earnings growth (5.6% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: PSX's earnings (5.6% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PSX's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: PSX's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-1.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PSX's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-1.4% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PSX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.5%).

Discover growth companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/12 22:12
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/12 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Phillips 66 is covered by 32 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
William SeleskyArgus Research Company
Theresa ChenBarclays
Phillip JungwirthBMO Capital Markets Equity Research