Marathon Petroleum Corporation Just Recorded A 46% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 6.2% to hit US$35b. Marathon Petroleum also reported a statutory profit of US$1.87, which was an impressive 46% above what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Marathon Petroleum

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 14 analysts covering Marathon Petroleum, is for revenues of US$132.7b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 7.0% reduction in Marathon Petroleum's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 21% to US$11.11 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$136.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.59 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$171, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Marathon Petroleum's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Marathon Petroleum at US$200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$142. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Marathon Petroleum shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 5.6% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 13% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.9% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Marathon Petroleum's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Marathon Petroleum. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Marathon Petroleum going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Marathon Petroleum you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.