Analysts Are Updating Their Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results

It's been a mediocre week for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) shareholders, with the stock dropping 10% to US$179 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of US$2.58 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of US$33b came in 2.2% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Marathon Petroleum

Taking into account the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Marathon Petroleum provided consensus estimates of US$140.2b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a measurable 4.9% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to descend 16% to US$18.88 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$141.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$18.75 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$214, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Marathon Petroleum at US$249 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$142. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Marathon Petroleum's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.4% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.2% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Marathon Petroleum is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Marathon Petroleum. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Marathon Petroleum going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Marathon Petroleum you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.