Verve Group faces near-term skepticism following its FY25 Q2 report, which included a downward revision to full-year revenue guidance. But beneath the short-term noise lies a company undergoing a strategic inflection — one that positions it to capture outsized value in the post-cookie, privacy-first advertising economy.
The current share price of €1.80 over-discounts near-term headwinds and underestimates the scalability of Verve’s moat in location-intelligent advertising. A €6.00 price target over a 3-year horizon implies ~233% upside — achievable through sustained revenue acceleration, margin expansion, and multiple re-rating as the company transitions from growth-stage ad tech to a profitable, infrastructure-grade platform.
Here’s why:
- Q2 is a reality check and not a broken model: Q2 revenue of €51M (+16% YoY) was solid, but management revised full-year 2025 guidance down to €210–215M (from €220–230M), citing delayed retail media integrations and softer brand spend in Europe. But the core platform is intact, and key growth vectors remain on track — with commercial momentum now accelerating into H2 2025.
- Near-term headwinds are transitory: The guidance cut reflects timing delays, not demand destruction. Three major U.S. retail partnerships — including a top grocery chain and national fuel network — are now live or launching in Q3. These are expected to contribute €15–20M in incremental revenue in 2026, scaling to €40M+ by 2028 as visitation-based targeting becomes embedded in retail media planning.
- Privacy is no longer a cost, rather a competitive advantage: With Chrome completing third-party cookie deprecation in Q4 2025, the industry is scrambling for deterministic, consent-based identity solutions. Verve’s opt-in, GPS-powered audience graph (70M+ monthly active devices) is one of the few scalable, privacy-compliant alternatives — now being onboarded into The Trade Desk, Magnite, and Xandr clean rooms. By 2027, this data layer could generate €50M+ in high-margin audience licensing and activation revenue.
- Programmatic DOOH is a high-margin growth engine: DOOH revenue grew 22% YoY in Q2, now representing 38% of total revenue. Global programmatic DOOH spend is projected to reach $12B by 2026 and $16B by 2028 (PwC). Verve’s VIO platform is a top-tier SSP in North America and Europe, with gross margins above 70% — making it one of the most capital-efficient segments in digital advertising.
- CTV & omnichannel expansion drives ARPU growth: Verve’s audiences are now available across 10+ CTV platforms. Advertisers can target households based on real-world behavior (e.g., “visited a Walmart in the last 7 days”). This drives higher CPMs and client retention — and opens a path to SaaS-like pricing models. By 2028, CTV and cross-channel revenue is on track to exceed €80M, up from ~€30M in 2025.
- AI is driving efficiency and scale: Verve’s AI-powered platform (launched Q2) automates audience modeling, creative optimization, and performance reporting — reducing client onboarding time by 40% and improving ROAS. This enhances operating leverage and supports faster scaling with flat OpEx — a critical enabler of margin expansion beyond 2026.
- Path to EBITDA breakeven by Q1 2026, margin expansion by 2028: Despite continued investment in U.S. growth, operating losses are narrowing. With revenue expected to ramp in H1 2026, adjusted EBITDA breakeven is now achievable by Q1 2026 — a key re-rating catalyst. By 2028, we model €400M in revenue and 18–20% EBITDA margins, positioning Verve for potential public market re-entry or strategic acquisition.
- Valuation is attractive today, compelling by 2028: At €1.80, Verve trades at ~2.8x 2026E revenue (€260M), despite:
- 18%+ revenue CAGR (2025–2028E)
- 65% gross margins
- Exposure to 20%+ CAGR markets (DOOH, retail media, CTV)
- A structurally advantaged, compliant data model
Verve Group is not immune to macro pressures — but it is built for the world that’s coming, not the one that’s ending. At €1.80, the stock over-discounts short-term delays and under-prices long-term optionality. With a scalable, high-margin platform, growing demand for privacy-safe targeting, and multiple re-rating catalysts on the horizon, €6.00 within 3 years is not aggressive — it’s the logical outcome of disciplined execution in a structurally favorable market.
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