German Investing Ideas

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US$65
FV
13.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
exit-earnings model with explicit share-count reduction (the standard revenue/margin/PE approach understates PayPal because it ignores the buyback, which is central to this thesis) 1. Revenue FY2030: ~$37.5B (from ~$32B today, ~3.5% CAGR – stabilization only, no reacceleration) 2. Net margin: 15.5% → net income ~$5.8B (cost program partially offsets mix shift) 3. Share count FY2030: ~700M (from ~890M today) Assumes ~5.5% net annual share reduction – deliberately BELOW the current ~9%/yr run-rate. Feasibility check: retiring ~190M shares over 4.5 years costs roughly $3B/yr even at rising prices, well within ~$6.8B annual free cash flow. 4. EPS FY2030: $5.8B / 700M ≈ $8.30 5. Exit multiple: 12x earnings → ~$100 per share in FY2030 (low end of a normal profitable-financial multiple; no premium, zero value assigned to agentic commerce optionality) 6. Discount back 4.5 years at 10% p.a. → fair value today ≈ $65 Every input is conservative on purpose. Kill-switch: if Branded Checkout growth turns negative again, the network is eroding and the thesis is void regardless of this math. Sensitivity: at a 16x exit multiple and the current ~9%/yr buyback pace, the same framework yields ~$85–90. I deliberately anchor on the conservative case.
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€32.4
4.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
11.1% p.a.
Profit Margin
20.1%
Future PE
8.73x
Price in 2031
€52.99
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Rocket Lab

The New Prime: Why Rocket Lab’s $1.8B Backlog and Neutron Debut Make it the Premier Space Growth Play of 2026

1. The "Space Systems" Engine The most misunderstood part of Rocket Lab is that it isn't just a rocket company.Read more

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€90.52
34.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
17%
Future PE
120x
Price in 2029
€107.69
€0
n/aintrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
N/A
Profit Margin
29.51%
Future PE
17.77x
Price in 2031
€0
€4.02
66.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
8.5% p.a.
Profit Margin
14.8%
Future PE
10x
Price in 2030
€5.43
€207.38
7.4% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
5.6% p.a.
Profit Margin
28.46%
Future PE
21.88x
Price in 2031
€268.45
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Vonovia

Buy and hold forever

I do live in Germany. Since the housing situation is tense and will be tense for years, for me an investment into German Real Estate is a rock solid investment.Read more

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€32
34.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
17.77% p.a.
Profit Margin
35.54%
Future PE
8.04x
Price in 2031
€51.94